Monsoon Stats and Analysis till Date coming up here on Saturday Morning..Prepared by GSB
Monsoon Toppers till 15th August will be up on this Page on Sunday Morning ...Prepared by PJ
There was colossal rains in Nepal. Chisapani 493 mms, Birendarnagar 427 mms, Dang 232 mms, Nepalgunj 172 mms, Dhangadi 147 mms.
Expected floods down stream in Bihar, UP plains and Bangladesh.
MAHARASHTRA & surroundings ..MONSOON RAIN IN CMS (ALONGWITH WESTERN GHATS).. 1 JUN - 15 AUG 2014
[CLICK TO ENLARGE] .. [best viewed on P.C. or Laptop]
SUB-DIVISION WISE -
1) KONKAN & GOA - 200 CMS (-10%) , LARGEST CITY : MUMBAI
2) VIDARBHA - 47 CMS (-25 %) , LARGEST CITY : NAGPUR
3) MADHYA MAHARASHTRA - 41 CMS (-16%) , LARGEST CITY : PUNE
4) MARATHWADA- 16 CMS (-60%) , LARGEST CITY : AURANGABAD
Rajesh sir your views on second part of the season swm 2014 begining aug to September. Scenario is similar to 2009 where all over India deficit stood at 22% at the end of season. Sir do we expect improvement in all over India situation and even if its so what is the implications on agricultural out put ?
Nilay: As yet the August situation has not improved much, and till mid August we see very poor rains in the NW and North and Central India. Things are poor in South peninsula. But the Eastern trough may show signs of improving the rans in TN soon.
Improved rainfall possible in Central, Eastern and parts of India in the last week of this month. Will see increase in west coast also.Deficit end of Aug may hover around -20%. September can see some very heavy parting showers.
Thanks so much for a prompt reply sir within 30 mins of my query sir u presented very well concise answer. Appreciate your efforts thanks again sir.
Nilay:.the east end of the monsoon axis will form a strengthened east coast trough, which can have an UAC embedded in the Southern end of the axis. The east coast trough gets a chance to deepen when the west coast trough is weak, and "allows" it to grow..both cannot survive together in strength...but wait a nd keep watch on west coast trough, bcoz life of the eastern trough depends on that
Kolkata will get thunder showers on Saturday with rainfall decreasing to lesser rains on Sunday. Drier next week..see also http://www.vagaries.in/.../posted-thursday-night-weekend...
The chances of the westerly flow over north India continuing for another week or so seem very high. This being peak rain season for these parts, the rain deficit will zoom in this region(except the areas close to the foot hills of the Himalayas).
Since in September the monsoon starts weakening over these parts the window for some sort of recovery seems to be closing fast?
Do share your views when you are done with your analysis?
Early withdrawl of SWM may increase probability for onset of NEM (much required for SE India... past 4 years has failed).
Thank you rajesh sir
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