Monday, January 14, 2013

Latest Sat Image as on Thursday 17th.Afternoon...Tally and Compare with Vagaries'Forecast given below in 2 posts...Note the Moving away of the High giving way to WD movement Eastwards..and the SW band route...West Saurashtra gets the rains

Latest Post as on 16th January ..evening..

J-3 Effect: Thursday 17th: Heavy snow in Kashmir/HP..rains in Punjab and Haryana, Delhi. Thunder and hail in plains of North India..Precipitation upto 35-40 mms in next 24/48 hrs..Snow upto 35-40 cms possible in Kashmir and HP, and 35-40 mms rains in the plains by Saturday morning.

Delhi rainy on 17th and 18th. Thursday cloudy and cool, with rains increasing by evening, possibly with thunder. By Thursday morning upto 5 mms possible.

Friday, overcast and cool (18c/19c). Rain with hail and thunder. By Friday morning, upto 10-15 mms rains possible.

Mumbai City:

17th Thursday: Partly cloudy skies. Temperatures (SCruz) between 31/32c - 15/16c (Thursday morning). Strong N/NW winds commence.

18th Friday: Partly cloudy clearing by evening. Temperature: 28/29c - 15/16c Friday morning.
Saturday: Windy (NW) and cool. Day at 28/29 and low at 14/15c.Saturday morning..

15th and 16th will be warm with highs around 33/34c with nights around 11/12c.
17th Thursday onwards we see a slight drop in day and night temperatures by about 2/3c...and Friday dropping to around 8/9c.

Surat, unchanged.., refer below..

Snow in London..and Freezing Fog in U.K....Europe's Snow and Cold...See International Page  for renowned Meteorologist's Reports.

Post of 14th January:
J-2 gone, and the 2/3 days intermediate period till J-3..already announced rain less for 2 days, 13th and 14th...
The prevailing high pressure over Central India moves towards the Orissa/AP coast on Tuesday, but the ridge stretching from the centre of the high towards the West coast remains for a day Wednesday, the high moves into the Bay region...

Tuesday 15th: As a instant result, the system, J-3 moves Eastwards and the system attracts initial SW winds towards the Sindh coast on the 15th.
Clouds spread along the Sindh coast with light rains on 15th Tuesday for Karachi and adjoining coastline.

Wednesday 16th: as J-3 moves east, clouds move into Northern Pakistan, Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi regions. 
Precipitation over N.Pakistan, Kashmir and light rains over Punjab and possible over Delhi NCR. 
Precipitation also possible along the stretch from Karachi NE wards towards Delhi thru Rajasthan.

17th Thursday: precipitation increases in the Northern regions of Pakistan, Kashmir, Punjab and Haryana, and also light rains continue in some places along the Sindh coast. Light rains also a possibility along the Western Saurashtra coast.

18th Friday, rains in Punjab and Haryana get heavy,upto 30-40 mms, with hailstones in the region. 
Delhi gets rain also.
Rain/snow also move into Utterakhand and Western Nepal..with heavy spells in parts of the state.

If there is no change in the scenario..Kathmandu gets showers on Friday and Saturday..more on Saturday...will follow this as the system moves in...

15th Tuesday: Partly cloudy with cloudiness increasing. Temperature range: 21c - 11c (SJung)
16th Wednesday; Cloudy skies, a mixture of alto stratus and sumulus. Light rains around evening. 20c - 12c

17th Thursday: Cloudy skies, with dark low clouds, keeping day cool and windy. Rain showers likely to increase by night. Temperatures between 18/19c - 12/13c. Upto 5 mms as on 24 hrs ended Thursday Morning.

18th Friday: Overcast and showers. Hail likely and some showers accompanied by thunder. Around 10 mms aaverage expected between 17th/18th. Friday morning sharp drop in night temperatures to 8/9c. 10 mms as on Friday morning.

15th Tuesday/16th Wednesday: Clear sky and temperatures will be in the 28/29c - 16c range. (City)
17th Thursday: Fog in the morning hours. Partly cloudy with high clouds.

A trough will run (after the WD passes) from Thursday. The trough will run NE from Goa to South Bengal. Cold wave will not be effective South of this trough line.

Basically, cold effect of J-3 should be effective  from 17th Thursday onwards: 

Mumbai City:  
15th Tuesday/16th Wednesday: Clear and hazy sky with temperature range between 33c - 17c (Scruz)

17th Thursday: Partly cloudy skies and stuffy night. Temperatures between 31/32c - 19c. Strong N/NW winds commence for next 2/3 days.

18th Friday: Partly cloudy clearing by evening. Temperature: 28/29c - 16/17c.

15th and 16th will be warm with highs around 33/34c with nights around 11/12c.
17th Thursday onwards we see a slight drop in day and night temperatures by about 2/3c...and Friday dropping to around 8/9c.

Good news for the Surtis, as high clouds start the cooling trend from 16th Wednesday. Nights remaining 19c till Wednesday. 
Wednesday will see high clouds and the day temperature falling to around NW winds take over.
Thursday onwards, the days will drop from 28c on Thursday to 26/27- on Friday. Friday morning will be cold at 13/14c.


Anonymous said...

As per IMD daily report, the hottest place of late has been Bhira. It was 39 celcius a couple of days back, yesterday it was 38.

Can this be explained away by bad instrument or there is something to it.
If there is something to it then the first 40 celcius of the sub continent has to come from here.

emkay said...

Rajesh, think you meant cold wave will be felt above the line - its written- below the line

Rajesh said...

Saurabh: Bhira readings, both minimum and maximum are noticed to be wrong and mis-leading. The instrument needs recalibrating..i have been noticing this fault for a long time now..and had mentioned it in vagaries some time ago.
Another faulty instrument seems to be that of Malegaon.

Emkay: Cold wave effective above the line i.e. North of the line...

Tyrone said...

Hi rajesh, As per your blog...had a brief heavy shower in our area last night at about 8 pm. Some areas received light rains, others heavy :)

Neeraj said...

What is the latest regarding weekend rain here ? Will J3 do the trick ? And what is the chance of snow at higher elevations (say above 6500 feet) ?

Rajesh said...

Neeraj: Sure sign of rains for Kathmandu by Friday...J-3 sustains till Nepal.Snow in Western Nepal more heavy and widespread..
Thanks Tyrone for the report..

Unknown said...

weather has turned very cloudy in Vasai , effect of western disturbance felt in Vasai and also in Mumbai.might give some drissle to- night

Unknown said...

Delhi will experience some heavy showers tonight and tommorow morning.

Rajesh said...

sam khan:vagaries had forecasted for Thursday partly cloudy in it is partly cloudy and strong NW winds blowing...this is due to WD effect..but no drizzle expected here..

6th December  Cyclone Michaung nears the end of it's life cycle in Telangana.  It will go into  records for causing extremely very heavy...