Monday, January 28, 2013

Last Day Reading of 31st Jan remaining...and the Contest Results will be out today!

*Thick Fog ..Delhi NCR on 31st by Rajiv and Arpit... see Inter Active Page 

Wednesday Morning report: Refer Forecast and report below to follow up:

Wednesday and J-5 moving into Kashmir. An extended line of medium to high clouds extends from the system Southwards thru Rajasthan. Clouding has formed due to thinly spaced isobars at the 850 hpa level. 
But as expected, J-5 will have to make way for the stronger F-1 , already seen as a well formed Low in MSLP charts near the 65 E region.
J-5 and its southern "tail" dissappears by Thursday. Almost on schedule as given in Vagaries 4 day forecast.

East-West trough has also formed along the North Mah. region, a day ahead (as we expected it by Thursday). A "pocket" develops in the trough, which has resulted in an isolated , but violent thunderstorm (on Tuesday night)about 80 kms East of Jalna in North Maharashtra. Vagaries keeping track on both systems...

Some Interesting activity in the Northern Sub-Continent regions, with 3 WDs on the way !..Check Dubai Forecast below.

Tuesday 29th: Dry all over except scattered precipitation in Nilgiri mountains. 

Wednesday 30th: dry all over, except Kashmir where J-5 moves as a weak WD..prevailing precipitation over Kashmir for 2 days.
(So, we end Jan with 5 WDs. Prediction by Vagaries on 2nd Jan was for 6 WDs).

Thursday 31st: A small East West trough line slopes Eastwards with  height  towards the North Mah/MP region. Thursday 31st will be cloudy in North Marathwada. Aurangabad and Akola districts will be cloudy in the day.Thursday night light rains in Aurangabad, Akola and adjoining South MP region.

Friday 1st February: Isolated rains in Nepal. Kathmandu will e cloudy with light rainfall.
F-1 precipitation also over Kashmir region.
Moves into Pakistan. Western regions of Pakistan start getting rain/snow.
Some rains in Central regions of Sindh. 

Saturday 2nd February (tentative): F-1 moves into plains of Pakistan and Indian Punjab, Haryana and cloudy over Delhi NCR. Light rains over Delhi NCR on Saturday night...F-1 weakens on Sunday all over the region.

Leaving Monday 3rd, rainless in the Indian region, before a back to back F-2 moves into North Pakistan and Northern India on Tuesday 5th February.
The precipitation commences right away from F-2, spreading from Northern Kashmir thru Punjab, Haryana and upto Delhi NCR on Tuesday. Chances of heavy rain concentration seems to be in the Islamabad regions and possibly South over Western UP...maybe some changes occurring as the week progresses, we will chase F-2 later ..

City Forecasts;
*Delhi NCR: Tuesday 29th/Wednesday 30th/Thursday 31st/ Friday 1st Feb: *Some fog on 30th and 31st morning. Fair weather with the temperature in the 22-6/7c range, gradually increasing to 24c-10c range.
Saturday 2nd February: Partly cloudy, with light rains in some parts of the regions.

Mumbai: Fair weather, with day and night temperatures in the 32/33c - 16/17c region, increasing day/night by 2c from Thursday onwards.

Kolkata: No rain, but cloudy skies on 31st Jan and 1st Feb..days rising to around 24/25c till Thursday and night temperatures show a gradual rise from tomorrow going upto 15c by Friday.

Pune: High clouds on Thursday and Friday..Days will be around 31/32c, with nights better at around 13/14c., till Thursday.

Surat: Mid Week the winds change again to Easterly in the morning, and the next 3/4 days will have consistent temperatures around the 31/32c -15/16c range...

Dubai will be very windy with sand blowing on Wednesday 30th...gets rains on 31st and 1st Feb. from the approaching WD ...should bring the temperature in the 25-16c range.


rkjrdp said...

Why you left Chennai always?

Rajesh said...

rkjrdp: Please identify yourself..i would always like to reply to someone ...have mentioned it specifically on vagaries.
Anyway..nothing very specific for Chennai next few days..not much eventfull..will surely write when there is something

Atul P Naik said...

Panaji, Goa still max above 35. Must be one of the hottest in the sub continent. Clear skies!
--- Atul P Naik, Margao - Goa

Unknown said...

Rajeshbhai, heavy rains over Baghdad and the trail ends over northern India.....Potey

Neeraj said...

Friday light rain for Kathmandu - J5 effect ?

Anonymous said...

Mumbai mornings below 15c for sometime now..

Last time it happened in 2011 and 2004 at santacruz ..
whats the record for below 15 c number of mornings at santacruz ?

Krishna said...


you are mistaken ...Rajesh always spared a thought when anything eventful happened in chennai..

BTW very misty it was in chennai today morning...quite cool

Anways jan,feb will be mostly the same with pleasant nights and slightly warm days...

ANyone who has observed this?
Chennai actualy got cooler on winters my observation for the past few years .....having llived here all my life i can make out this time temp on jan,feb lot of times are cooler than bangalore...

Am i wrong...let me know

sset said...

Probably south Indian weather group- investigate/cause for decreasing and weakening NEM currents. Much of SE Interior India is becoming drier by each passing year. Bangalore is a classic example of soaring temperatures and possible desertification. Much of this is attributed to man made causes like removal of trees,mining,no plantation efforts of native species,complete drying of lakes. Due to this monsoon winds in july/august just blow off with no trees to capture moisture - winds blow away.

Rajesh said...

Feed backs and inputs from Chennai are very sparse and in-frequent.

Atul: Goa has been hot for some time fact i remember putting on vagaries that Goa would be "below" the axis level for some time..maybe a bit cooling in the first week..

Neeraj: Yes, J-5 effect.Shall detail Kathmandu.

Krisnakumar: Yes, Chennai has been cooling after the NEM withdrawal normally...i remember chennai cooling down to almost 17c 2 years back.

Rohit: Please let us know if you get the Mumbai record for less than 15c nights..

Anonymous said...

Even Mumbai getting cooler in winter......

The Mumbai records for min temp below 15 c continuously - has been put on the extreme weather blog..

For reference replicating here :

Mumbai (SCZ) averages 16.2 c as minimum temp for January..

Instances of min temp below 15 c continuously -

Jan 2011 - min temp below 15c for 17 consecutive days..

Jan / Feb 2008 - min temp below 15c for 14 consecutive days..

Jan 2013 - min temp below 15c for 11 consecutive days..

Anonymous said...

Krishnakumar :

Though Bangalore might have shown higher max temp than Chennai in Jan /Feb on some occassions ..

Chennai has higher humidity (hence higher heat index) and higher morning temp than Bangalore in winter..

Chennai will be comfy..
But , Bangalore will be a bit more comfy ..

Eg of today afternoon : Chennai is at 29 c with heat index of 31 c ..Bangalore is also around 29 c but heat index of only 28 c...( so bangalore feels 3 c cooler)..


Clouding has formed due to thinly spaced isobars at the 850 hpa level.


Explain the statement

Rajesh said...

Now 31st reading convinces me that Scruz meter needs calibration..?? any views on per our discussion ?

Anonymous said...

Rajesh sir : though it was nice and cosy at night during our discussion( all the windows were closed)..

It was cool over here in the mornings.. we dont open windows till 9 am(though we dont wear sweaters :) .. today i went to the local shop in the morning at 8.20 am and it was cool enough (my fingers felt a bit cold and numb)..
I observed many people on the road huddled in warm clothings..
Even noons were comfy..

I told my mom and bro abt our discussion (calibration)..

But as per my mother she doesn't feel much heat even near the gas burner this winter..
Even my bro feels that recent winters have been cooler..

So , definitely there seems to be high degree of truth in the readings from what me and the people around me have experienced in the last few years..

Abhijit Modak said...

About SCZ I cant comment but yup in Badlapur this whole Jan experienced nice chilly constant winter. After sunset it would get cool & pleasent here and from late night to morning nice cold. No fans were required at all for whole month here and instead in night blankets were required . Only in day time if we came from outside then for first 30mins medium fan was required as day time was bit warm almost on average around 30c max temp recorded(except few days saw max temp of between 26c to 28c range.) So in short saw constant normal winter here .

Unknown said...

heavy showers likely in mumbai next week

Anonymous said...

Abhijit: Almost same weather(like Badlapur) was experienced at Andheri (around 1 km from Santacruz weather observatory)..
No fans required..Overall Power bill was 15 % less than normal :)

Anonymous said...

For Record ->

Jan 2013 average temp at Mumbai ( SCZ):

Max : 30.9 c
Min : 14.8 c
Monthly Temp Range :10.4 c to 34 c.

Lowest ->Max :27.4 c on 6th Jan2013
Min :10.4 c on 6th Jan2013

Daily Range:9.6 c on 2nd Jan

Highest ->Max :34 c on 9th Jan 2013
Min :21 c on 2nd Jan 2013

Daily Range:19.1 c on 13th Jan

Unknown said...

A strong western disturbance will also cause rains in mumbai and konkan area by early next week .temperatures may go in single digit once again in mumbai after the rains, . because of the chill.

Anonymous said...

Past 10 year Jan average at Mumbai Airport :

Max : 31.5 c ; Min : 16.2 c

Lowest temp : 10 c on 29 Jan 2012 (Source: IMD)
Highest temp : 37.4 c on 16 Jan 2006 (Source : IMD)

Anonymous said...

Sam: It would be very nice to experience single digit chill(hope it comes)..

Recent Single digit temp at Mumbai Airport..All are in Feb :

6th feb 2008: 9.4 c
8th Feb 2008: 8.5 c
9th Feb 2008: 8.6 c
9th Feb 2012: 8.8 c

Strong Western Disturbance is seen affecting the country and the subcontinent. Heavy rain and snow reported from Himalayas, and rain/thunder...