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All India SWM toppers from 01.06.2011 to 03.09.2011 (95 days). Rainfall in mm's (Min 3500 mm). Specially and meticulously prepared and sent to Vagaries by Pradeep John.

Kollur (Karnataka) - 6688

Agumbe (Karnataka) - 6659

Gaganbawada (Maharashtra) - 6074

Sangameshwar (Maharashtra) - 6036

Mahabaleshwar (Maharashtra) - 5541

Mulshi (Maharashtra) - 5516

Cherrapunji (Meghalaya) - 5216

Bhira (Maharashtra) - 5022

Radhanagri (Maharashtra) - 4900

Kadra (Karnataka) - 4766

Siddapura (Karnataka) - 4729

Gerosoppa (Karnataka) - 4718

Koyna (Maharashtra) - 4669

Lonavala (Maharashtra) - 4533

Gorkhana (Karnataka) - 4481

Tillari (Maharashtra) - 4425

Valpoi (Goa) - 4353

Chinna Kallar (Tamil Nadu) - 4334

Rajapur (Maharashtra) - 4287

Tulshi Lake (Maharashtra) - 4236

Ratnagiri (Maharashtra) - 4192

Mhasla (Maharashtra) - 4165

Bhagamandala (Karnataka) - 4139

Kankavli (Maharashtra) - 4124

Mandangad (Maharashtra) - 4110

Lanja (Maharashtra) - 4044

Karkala (Karnataka) - 3957

Quepem (Goa) - 3845

Bhatkal (Karnataka) - 3831

Vadakara (Kerala) - 3804

Sawantwadi (Maharashtra) - 3790

Honavar (Karnataka) - 3789

Chiplun (Maharashtra) - 3759

Walwand (Maharashtra) - 3732

Malvan (Maharashtra) - 3710

Sanguem (Goa) - 3689

Matheran (Maharashtra) - 3617

Kottigehara (Karnataka) - 3604

Bhatkal (Karnataka) - 3595

Udupi (Karnataka) - 3548

Poladur (Maharashtra) - 3540

Jawhar (Maharashtra) - 3515

Pawna (Maharashtra) - 3508

Ponda (Goa) - 3500

Canacona (Goa) - 3500

Sringeri (Karnataka) - 3500

Places such as Tamini, Hulikal, Nilkund, Mawsynarm, Amboli, Poochippara, Walakkad and Castle Rock would have also made above 3500 mm list.

Kollur in Karnataka is still managing to hang on with the number uno position. Agumbe and Kollur rainfall are so close and heavy, leaving all other way behind by around 600 mm. Out of the 95 monsoon days so far, Agumbe and Kollur have had 93 rainy days, while Mahabaleshwar comes second with 92 days of rainfall. The September rains are awesome, both these stations are moving towards 7000 mm mark. Exciting times ahead.

The World topper and the legend Cherrapunji is indeed having a bad year. Its way down on 7th with 5216 mm rainfall, It should have got around 7200 mm rainfall by now.

From Kerala and Tamil Nadu there are one station representing each state. Tamil Nadu have Chinna Kallar (4334 mm) and Kerala have Vadakara (3804 mm)

Mumbai had showers on Saturday with rain amounting to 23 mms at Colaba nad 46 mms at S'Cruz (till 11 pm). Averaging 34 mms. Vagaries had put up 30 mms for Saturday.

Sunday will see 4/5 showers throughout the day a couple of them heavy. Intervals will be bright. Rain amount 30 mms average. Rains decreasing in intensity during the day.

AS-2 vanishes from the latest Thai map. But, IMD mentions its location on Saturday evening as over the West coast of Gujarat and adjoining arabian Sea.

I still feel AS-2 has fizzled out. In effect, it has merged with the seasonal low over South Rajasthan, something which vagaries has anticipated.

Now, IMD forecasts BB-5 to merge with the monsoon trough soon.

As Vagaries had put up the weekend forecast yesterday, there is not much to add to that. On going thru the weekend forecast in Vagaries, seem the forecast is on line. Saurashtra received heavy rains today. I think Konkan cumulative rain for Sat and Sun could add up to around the figure mentioned (up to 75 mms).

But, there is one major variation from our forecast. There is no decrease in rain in Interior Mah.Pune, Kolhapur and Satara districts received good rains.

Mahableshwar received 177 mms in 9 hrs till 5.30 pm (Saturday), Chinchwad 73 mms, Bhira 53 mms. Vishal informs of rains all along the way from Sangli to Mumbai.

Else, for the rest of the regions, do not see much to change for Sunday in the forecast...

Parts of Mumbai got sporadic heavy showers on Saturday. I say parts, because the rainfall scattered and very unevenly distributed.

Rainfall figures for Saturday, from 8.30 am till 5.30 pm: Mumbai Deonar (AWS) : 72 mms, Mumbai Colaba: 42 mms,  Mumbai S'Cruz:15 mms. 

Elsewher in the state: Lonavala (unofficial private reading): 73 mms,  Pune :69 mms, Satara: 48 mms,  Aurangabad: 14 mms, Thane: 13 mms.

Pune with 69 mms was the "surprise package "today !

Next update and forecast by 9.30 pm..

After having vanished from the weather charts yestedray, As-2 has re-appeared again, and in fact moved nearer to the coastline, and is in the NE Arabian Sea, South -West of Veraval.
Associated massive clouding, due to fast deepening, has formed in the SW and SE quadrant, most of it in the sea yet.
Some parts of Konkan received showers today morning.

Meanwhile, we have another "guest" visiting North India ! In additon to the parameters contributing to the rain mentioned yesterday, S1 and the easterlies, BB-5 has joined the party by moving North, and is over North M.P. and adjoining U.P.
Rainfall, though light, has commenced in the North today. Delhi has received 17 mms.

Those interested, See Mumbai Page Updated Saturday Morning

AS-2 seems to be fizzling out..and the remnant lingers on as a "big" low connected to the seasonal low (Mentioned in vagaries a few days ago).

BB-5 is very much there over M.P. And at 998 mb, is precipitating rain around its region in North Mah, Vidharbha, M.P and Chattisgarh.

S2 is moving east from N.Pakistan into India.

As the monsoon axis is south of normal, running thru Gujarat, North Mah and Chattisgarh, the easterlies above the axis are strong. The region to the north of the axis is dry and even hot.

Forecast for Weekend (Saturday,3rd /Sunday,4th).

As the easterlies will interact with S2, we can see some rains in North Pakistan, North India and Delhi and the hills of H.P. For the Northern areas, weekend rains may add up to 25-40 mms at mmost stations. Nepal will be status quo, almost dry.

Rains decreasing in Interior Maharashtra, M.P. and Vidharbha.

Saurashtra region to receive heavy rains, and some areas of South Gujarat.Cumulative rains up to 40-75 mms at most places for the weekend.

Delhi could get some rain this weekend along with areas in Punjab.

Coastal Mah. and Karnataka will see rains 40-75 mms at places cumulative on sat/Sun.

Adjoining Southern Sindh coast of Pakistan can recieve weekend rains.

Karachi will be almost dry on Saturday and Sunday, but will see some rain gathering by Monday. A thundershower possible on Monday, with rain amount up to 15-20 mms.

Mumbai:

Saturday: Partly cloudy with 4/5 showers, not prolonged. Some could be heavy. Sunny in the period between showers. Rain amount upto 30 mms.

Sunday: Partly cloudy and sunny with a few heavy showers. Rain amount 25 mms.

Pune: Saturday/Sunday: Cloudy with light rains. Rain amount not more than 5 mms /day.

AS-2 has now deepened to 996 mb, and is located south of the international border, just off the west Gujarat coast. It is now expected to remain as such till tomorrow.

As explained yesterday, precipitation along the line joining AS-2 with the seasonal low over Pak/Rajasthan border, in Sindh and west Rajasthan, is very heavy. Overnight Jacobabad in sindh got 99 mms. Jaisalmer in Rajasthan today received 64 mms.

BB-5 is also very much in the same position, at 996 mb over South Chattisgarh. Thursday saw good thundershowers in Vidarbha and East M.P.

Akshay from Nagpur has put up superb video of the thunderstorm, which is up on vagaries on the inter-action page.

Monsoon axis remains south of normal position.

Delhi (Palam) rose to 37.7c today, Thursday.

Northern states of Kashmir, H.P, Punjab can be ready for some rains next week. W.D. S-1 could possibly arrive.

We have discussed earlier, that the spell of heavy rains in the sub-continent is the result of an active MJO in the Seas around us. The current active MJO started around 24th August, aftera supressed MJO since 5th August.

Now, as per various estimates, we have a "normal" active MJO now around in our seas. Forecasts say that the MJO would in a supressed state from around 11th September. That means, "active" events of the SWM would stop from about the 10th/11th September.

Withdrawal of SWM would get a boost in this stage.

See Mumbai Page for September Forecast

AS-2, at 998 mb, has deepened to some extent. As on Wednesday evening, it was located in the Arabian Sea, just south of the international border.

It can deepen a bit more to 996 mb by Thursday. As the seasonal low ,also at 998 mb, lies north of AS-2, we can expect a combined effect in the imaginary line joining the 2 lows. We can estimate good precipitation in Sindh on Thursday. Expect the system to fizzle out after Friday.

Karachi received 10 mms of rain in the day on Wednesday. Thus having got 60 mms in this month, the city received its normal quota for the month.

On Thursday, Karachi can expect another overcast day, with spells of thundershowers. A few in the post noon will be heavy. Rains could decrease from Friday.

With the monsoon axis far to the south, northern india (Delhi) will be rain free for the next few days also. Delhi, already heating up to 37c, might just reach 38c b Thursday.

Nepal too would be practically devoid of meaningfull rains. Kathmandu was short of its monthly August normal by 53 mms when it reached a total of 266 mms by the month end.

BB-5 is now, at 998 mb, is over south Chattisgarh. Not expecting much future from BB-5. Rainfall will be heavy in a "localised " region. We can expect some heavy showers in East M.P. and Vid on Thursday. Some precipitation could be expected along the axis joining the 2 lows. Precipitation can be expected in southern M.P. Southern Rajasthan and Gujarat region.

As mentioned yesterday, AS-2 can possibly just "tone up" the rainfall a bit in North Konkan.

Closing current poll tomorrow. Very few votes cast this time for SWM withdrawal time. Cast your vote now if not done so !

Mumbai saw very little rain on Wednesday. Just about 1 mm.

Thursday could be partly cloudy, with sunny spells. Post noon cloud cover will increase to some extent, when a few showers may be possible.Thunder cells over the ghats on the eastern skyline by evening. Rain amount 15 mms.

Mumbai Colaba managed 798 mms in August, while the S'Cruz gauge measured 855 mms in August. Averaging 825 mms for the month.

On 1st August, Vagaries had estimated :“Looking at the above scenario, for Mumbai, I would expect rainfall to get a bit substantial in the 2nd fortnight of August. I could go wrong, but on the above 50-50 basis for the 2 halves of the month, I would estimate around 575-600 mms average between the 2 stations.”