Sunday, May 29, 2022

29th May 2022

A)..IMD today, has advanced Monsoon into Kerala:

Justification: 

>The strength of the westerly winds have increased over southeast Arabian Sea and is about 15-20kts (25-35kmph). 

> Cloudiness over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining areas of Kerala have increased and the average outgoing long wave radiation(OLR) is about 189.7 W/M2 (thus <200 W/M2 ).

B)..Vagaries would still wait for the SWM entry into Kerala...maybe in 1st Week of June.

Justification:

> Above IMD criteria are correct, but weak ,as

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South West Monsoon will evade from Kerala Latitude till 4th June at least...Hence no further progress expected next 4/5 days...

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Mumbai: Partly Cloudy, Humid and very stuffy. Real feel temperatures around 38c, even though the recorded will be around 34/35c....Light rainfall in patches in parts of city will add to the discomfort...No change till 5th June....Proper Monsoon not before 13th June.

Pune: Hot at 34/35c, with clouds forming after Noon..thundery developments after 1st June possible.

Goa: No direct Monsoon approach expected till 10th June...some scattered showers in parts only.

Marathwada: Will be dry and hot and temperatures around 38c. next 7 days...thunder clouds may develop after 4th June...Monsoon still not arriving before 13th at least ..Hold back sowing operations.

मराठवाडा: पुढील 7 दिवस कोरडे आणि उष्ण आणि तापमान 38 अंशाच्या आसपास राहील... 4 जूननंतर मेघगर्जनेचे ढग निर्माण होऊ शकतात... किमान 13 तारखेपूर्वी मान्सूनचे आगमन होणार नाही.. पेरणीची कामे थांबवा.

Vidharbh: Hot and dry at around 40c or above. No major change till 3rd June.
Vidharbh: सुमारे 40c किंवा त्यापेक्षा जास्त तापमान ,गरम आणि कोरडे. ३ जूनपर्यंत कोणताही मोठा बदल नाही.

1 comment:

Babu Mathew said...

A 2018 memmory:
2018....Vagaries of the Weather ©
vagaries© of the weather.blog written by rajesh kapadia.concentrating on meteorology of the Indian sub continent and extreme world weather.

Tuesday, May 29, 2018
IMD announces Arrival of South West Monsoon in Kerala...
Its a "Pseudo" Arrival of Monsoon...!

However, the Monsoon has been advanced by IMD in spite of certain important criteria like OLR and 850 winds direction not upto the specified mark. The wind depth is also not sufficient.
AS-3 system bringing rainfall to Kerala and Karnataka coast ha AAs prompted the announcement.

However, it could be termed as a "Pseudo" Arrival...

Post of 5th July Evening: * Mumbai : On Wednesday 6th Mumbai (MMR)will see a brief day's let up with decrease in Rains (30-60 mms) as co...