Thursday, May 26, 2022

Overall Maharashtra outlook till 1st June - Summer to continue, hot weather at most places!

With the recent strong WD trough disturbing the monsoon's northward progress and MJO entering unfavourable phases for Indian Ocean, it now seems that the monsoon ( In Maharashtra) may arrive at its normal average dates (and not before time).Monsoon onset seems to be significantly delayed from the forecast, no good rain are seen in Kerala at least till 4 June

Monsoon Dates Given below are likely dates.

Konkan: Warm and humid weather, with localized light shower at some places. No heavy rains anytime soon. 

Monsoon expected (as of now)..south Konkan/Goa 9th/10th June. North Konkan  (Mumbai ) 12th-13th June.

Madhya Maharashtra: Hot weather to continue. Patchy localised  thunderstorm development possible towards month end. These will be pre-monsoon/summer thundershowers, not providing much relief. Monsoon South Madhya Mah: around 9th-10th June. North Madhya Mah 13th- 15th June.

Marathwada: Very hot and mainly dry weather expected. Advised to avoid sowing till around 15th June. Monsoon around 16th June.

Vidarbha: Very hot weather to continue. Some localized thundershowers likely in eastern parts of Vidarbha in next 2 days, but days will heat up after that. Avoid sowing till around 15th June. Monsoon around 15th-17th June.

With negative iod likely to dominate the indian ocean this season

I have a feeling that models forecast can go wrong.

As weather models are heavily skewed with ENSO conditions and currently with La-Nina models just painting India with blue shades (above normal rain).

By Vag.Shreyas & Vag. VineetKumar

1 comment:

Mohsin mulla said...

Hi vineet i appriciate your work.

All modules forcasting including vagaries are going to wrong.

Same I said to rajesh sir earlier in my comment "sir as per my concern proper sw monsoon rain can not seen in kerala coast till 4 th of june. However bbc weather long range forcast is far better then our local weather monitoring system.

As per bbc weather there is no meaningful rain forcast in kerala till 7th of june. This year sw monsoon onset is very complicated.

Rajesh sir waiting for your view on that as u said in comment section replied to me UAC on kerala and karnataka coast could help the monsoon strength and advancement into northwards.