Further Analysis of the parameters as discussed in MW-1,MW-2.
Let me explain, that the winds on crossing the equator break into 2 branches. i) gushing into the Arabian Sea, and ii) moving into the Bay of Bengal.
Mascarene high pressure zone in the South Indian Ocean.
The "Power House" of the Monsoon winds is lower in strength (should be 1032 mb), for this time of the season.
2. Seasonal Low:
After recording first 50 c temp in April(30th) in Asia, Shaheed Benazirabad (Sindh) is currently at 45.5 c and Jacobabad 44.5c.
After this lull, the core low formation region (Thar desert) has to start to heat up again. Barmer/Jaipur recorded 41.5 c on 3rd May 2018. Delhi S'Jung recorded 35.2 c....Minimum was 19.5c !
These six variables are: sea-level pressure (P), zonal (U) and meridional (V) components of the surface wind, sea surface temperature (S), surface air temperature (A), and total cloudiness fraction of the sky (C). (Negative values of the MEI represent the cold ENSO phase, a.k.a.La Niña, while positive MEI values represent the warm ENSO phase (El Niño).The MEI is computed separately for each of twelve sliding bi-monthly seasons (Dec/Jan, Jan/Feb,..., Nov/Dec).
Negative values of the MEI represent the cold ENSO phase, a.k.a.La Niña, while positive MEI values represent the warm ENSO phase (El Niño).
The updated (Feb-Mar) MEI is at -0.502 (in Jan-Feb was -0.731), for a slightly decreased ranking.
30 day SOI has fallen further after MW2 and is now at +3.0, while April 30th reading was +4.5.
In the tropical Pacific, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral—neither El Niño nor La Niña. All climate models indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean will continue to warm slowly, but temperatures will remain close to average through the Northern Summer Beneath the surface, the tropical Pacific Ocean is slightly warmer than average, but well within the neutral range...
As discussed, we should normally see a low sometime after the 15th of April.
What is needed now is a pulse from the Far East. But,currently there is no storm or low pressure in the Philippines’ Seas.
A strong MJO would hasten the favourable formations and lows, with enhanced precipitation. The propagation of the MJO to the Indian ocean is uncertain over the next two weeks.
Looking at the current parameters, there seems slight delay in the South West Monsoon arrival dates for Andaman and Kerala as of now.
The quantum of rainfall expected will be analysed in the subsequent MW-4, which will be ready for publication on 16th May.