Sunday, February 26, 2017

Vagaries' meet in Pune with Sikandarji (IMD) and Dr. Mazumdar (IITM) on 25th February 2017.
Had very useful and helpful discussions with the IMD/IITM scientists.

With our Co-Authors


NilaY Wankawala said...

Nice Moments captured on clicks- Lovely pics-

NilaY Wankawala said...

Credit : Australian Government Bureau of Meterology

Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 28 February 2017

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up, ENSO Outlook and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

El Niño WATCH: likelihood of El Niño in 2017 increases

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral. However, recent changes in both the tropical Pacific Ocean and atmosphere, and climate model outlooks surveyed by the Bureau, suggest the likelihood of El Niño forming in 2017 has risen. As a result, the Bureau's ENSO Outlook status has been upgraded to El Niño WATCH, meaning the likelihood of El Niño in 2017 is approximately 50%.

All atmospheric and oceanic indicators of ENSO are currently within neutral thresholds. However, sea surface temperatures have been increasing in the eastern Pacific Ocean and are now warmer than average for the first time since June 2016, while the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has been trending downwards.

Seven of eight international models surveyed by the Bureau indicate steady warming in the central tropical Pacific Ocean over the next six months. Six models suggest El Niño thresholds may be reached by July 2017. However, some caution must be taken at this time of year, with lower model accuracy through the autumn months compared to other times of the year.

El Niño is often associated with below average winter–spring rainfall over eastern Australia and warmer than average winter–spring maximum temperatures over the southern half of Australia.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has little influence on Australia from December to April. Current outlooks suggest a neutral IOD may persist until the end of autumn.

ENSO Outlook

Our ENSO Outlook provides up-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing.

The status is El Niño WATCH.

Next update expected on 14 March 2017.

sset said...

Summer started -> KRS dam bone dry.

Unknown said...

wow...nice snaps...wish could have joined you people

Rohit Aroskar said...

Vijay..join us during next meet

Saurabh said...

Hi Rajesh
Very few updates nowadays.
Your views on the upcoming wet spell?

  4th October  The subtropical ridge continues to extend further east from the Arabian peninsula towards most parts of North west and west c...