Na Nauk..AS-1...has moved West wards as anticipated, and seemingly has deepened a bit more to 983 mb. Positioned now at 18.3N and 64E, it has now moved dangerously close to Oman, and safe from Indian coast. Not heading for Pakistan either.
Now, as explained, the system is likely to enter into drier air to its west, and by Friday would start weakening, and for crossing land at the Masirah Islands region into Southern Oman, it would be better news, as the system would cross by Saturday.
Heavy rains likely in Sur and Southern regions with flash floods in the Wadis.
Muscat would be cloudy on Friday with some showers by evening.
Mumbai: IMD has kept our hopes alive by announcing that the off trough has formed, from South Maharahtra to Kerala, but is very feeble...Naturally it is feeble, the cyclone has moved west of our marked limit, 65E, and is at 64E Thursday evening.
Scope for the off shore trough to get back on stream, but i see a slight negative"kill joy" that may delay the trough from bringing the SWM to North Konakn by a day or two...the dry air (see image) moved in with the system near the West coast !
Mumbai Outlook: Gradual increase in Rain intensity from Friday night...with marked increment this weekend.
SWM moving into Goa and Konkan upto Dahanu (including Mumbai) by Sunday. Further movement very likely upto Surat by Tuesday. Saurashtra region, Surat and Bharuch may see increasing rains from Saturday/Sunday...
Initial advance could be restricted to coastal belt...
Cloudy weather for Karachi on Saturday, with light rains expected.
South West Monsoon may advance into Eastern Nepal on Monday...
Kathmandu, now in the 31-20c range may see thunder showers from Sunday night,which may gradually increase on Monday.Next week we see days below 30c in the capital.