Friday, June 06, 2014

Satna : New record of all time high for Satna: 48.0c on 6th June 2014..

Posted Saturday Night:

The expected Low has formed in the Arabian Sea. Situated off the Kerala coast near the Lakshdweep Islands, it was last located at 12N and 70E..I am showing the wind image here so that readers may understand how the centre is located and identified. 

The Low, likely to intensify to some extent, and move along the coast, and by Monday could be located West off Goa. But the major heavy rain  will soon start concentrating  in the West and SW quadrant.

System likely to get embedded in the upper trough along the 13N line, (due to Shear..see image) and may move Westwards, away from the Indian coast. System may deepen to some extent, and could even dissipate in the seas itself before hitting any coast.

In this scenario, I do not see effect on Pakistan from this system. 

SWM advances into Kerala on Friday...
The SWM moves ahead from Monday 9th onwards. Once the Low/depression moves West, we see the West Coast trough gaining strength.
Other Forecasts for the weekend given below...Friday Afternoon Post...

Posted Friday afternoon:

South West Monsoon advancing into Kerala on Friday 6th June. The Monsoon move into Coastal and S.I. Karnataka and Southern TN by Sunday, 8th June.
Mumbai Monsoon around 14th...Saurashtra and Bharuch get their showers after 15th June..

Low pressure likely to form off the Kerala coast on 7th June. It can intensify first to a weel marked low and then depression. As a depression, it can be positioned due West off Goa by the 9th/10th of June. There is a trough in the 700 hpa level along the 19N line. System could get embedded in the trough. If so, then a) it can strengthen and move due West. b) If the rough gets weak by the 9th/10th, then the system will also weaken and move NW and dissipate.
Some models show a) and some b) as a possibility.

Delhi NCR: Hot, with night temperatures rising. heat waves will prevail all over Northern India for the next 10 days. As no WD is in store, few places in Balochistan and Sindh may cross 50-51c, and places in Rajasthan may touch 49c. Few all time records expected to be broken. Night temperatures in Delhi and parts of Rajasthan and North MP expected to be 34/35c soon. Monsoon current will star advancing from Bihar/And Eastern MP towards Delhi after the 20th. Monsoon over Delhi after 26th June.

Mumbai: Its getting unbearable, high humidity and a 3c range between day and night ! Let this weekend pass with a few drizzles making it worst. But come Monday 9th June, or latest Tuesday 10th, Mumbai should see the welcome showers of heavier intensity. Outer townships will be lashed by thunder storms also.

Pune: Continuing with the sure chances of a thunder shower in around Pune vicinity for the next 4/5 days. Regions around Pune can get thunder showers this weekend and into next week till the arrival of the Monsoon, around 14th June.

Aurangabad: Saturday 7th June and Sunday 8th June will be hot, with warm nights in the 26/27c range. And the clouds will make it more stuffy. Monday 9th,  Aurangabad could get a thunder shower, which will be enough to cool the night, and bring relief. Tuesday 10th, will see a more widespread and heavy storm in Aurangabad, maybe around 30 mms, and ,cooling down the city to around 22c. Regular Monsoon though is not expected before the 15th of June, though pre monsoon thunder showers next week will bring the required relief from the current 41/42c temperatures.

Bangalore: As the Monsoon advances into Kerala, Bangalore will see wet spell continuing next 2 days. But, as the Low pressure moves, cloudy weather and typical monsoon days after 9th June will mean less quantum and more pleasant days, with average rain amounts.

Chennai: As the South West Monsoon tracks towards the Karnataka coast, a thunder shower likely for Chennai on Sunday, 8th June. Mon 9th /Tuesday 10th /Wednesday 11th will be stuffy and cloudy, with passing showers in parts of Chennai.

Kolkata: After the pleasant cooling spell last week, the city has seen the days around 35/36c. But where is the Monsoon ? The Eastern and NE sector are still searching for the elusive clouds. Though the SWM can move into the NE States by this weekend, we dont see the Bengal area getting covered till 12th. Kolkata may be lucky to get the odd shower on Monday as the SWM current creeps in the NE.

Feeling Hot !
Hot Nights...Minimum Temps Saturday morning: Kota and Noida 34.1c and Pusa 33.6c...Chandrapur 33.5c...Palm 32.8c...Meerut 31c...Gwalior 30.6c..
And You think Mumbai is hot ?? :-)  To be more convinced, see Rohit's analysis of last 3 year's Comparison of Mumbai Summers..on Mumbai Page..

Friday 6th June..Highest was Larkana at 51.0c in Pakistan...
Hottest in India on Friday was Churu (Raj) at 48.6c.....Other Hot Spots..Ganganagar & Satna-48.0c, Damoh-47.7c, Bikaner, Nowgong and Banda-47.6c, Brahmapuri-47.5c, Barmer-47.4c, Wardha and Delhi(Palam)-47.2c, Chandrapur-47.1c. 

Thursday 5th June... temps : Highest in India was Bikaner at 49c...Hottest in India this year...

Pakistan saw 50.0c at Larkana and 49.0 at Jacobabad...


Sunny Arora said...

Looks the depression near kerala will curve NW and will head towards Oman, a repeat of 2007 the formation of another GONU ? lets hope not as 2007 will go down as the worst monsoon period

Anonymous said...

Rajesh Sir,
What is the forecast for Nagpur till the monsoon arrives. Will it be heat as you have predicted for North and Central India.


Unknown said...

thanks rajesh sir ur analysis has benefited hundreds of cardamom planters over here... monsoon drizzling has started... will we face heavy rain this june and july? and will the elnino effect cause severe drought in the second half of the monsoon(aug and sep)?

Nilesh Ladhad said...

what about valsad, sir. myself shifted from sambalpur to valsad.

Nilesh Ladhad said...

what about valsad sir. myself shifted to valsad from sambalpur, odisha. its too humid here.

Rajesh said...

nilesh: surprised you are in follow what i mention for Bharuch..shall give details next time..

prabhu archana:The moderate rainfall continues in the hills till 9th. 9th and 10th we see a slight increase in rains, and after 11th, we may see a decrease in rains..accordingly, preparations may be made..but till 15th, some sporadic showers will be seen in the hilly regions.

Unknown said...

As predicted by rajesh sir, on tuesday 'Mumbai' will definitely experience 1st- thunderstorm of the season .

Hrishikesh said...

Mumbai pressure dropping down seriously 1001 at 3pm and dropping!!!!!!

Vijayanand said...

Clear evening in bangalore. Its warm and clear. Light wind from west. Does not look too promising for monsoon to set.

Unknown said...

hi rajesh sir... as u mentioned earlier that kerala idukki will recieve close to 700mms of rain in the month of june, how much rain fall can we expect this month since we hear talks on the news that there are chances for the monsoon to weaken...

Vijayanand said...

Overall clear sky in bangalore. Few low clouds coming in from west. Wind has picked up a bit from yesterday. SW Monsoon would take more time to set in here.

Unknown said...

This Sunday should be the LAST dry Sunday for Mumbai and konkan coast, as the monsoon will set in Mumbai and entire Konkan by Friday next week.Next weekend most possibly be a wet weekend for Mumbai.

 Map by Vag. Tejas...Source "Mah. Water Respources Dept" 2nd august 2021