Posted Monday 11th, afternoon:
The system from the Bay is now well marked, and could be numbered as BB-18.
BB-18 is at 11N and 88E, Monday afternoon, and its central pressure is at 1004 mb.
Conditions and parameters will allow it to track Westwards, and deepen to the depression stage by Tuesday. However, precipitation will be restricted to the seas till Tuesday.
On approaching the coast, we see SST resistance to strengthening. Vagaries would slightly modify its last estimate, and estimate BB-18 to cross land at North TN region, and precipitate fairly good amounts ( 40-60 mms) in North TN from Wednesday.
Pulse from BB-18 can form another Low in the Arabian Sea off Karntaka/Goa around 13th.
Another Update tonite by 11 pm IST.
Monday morning saw the expected drop in temperatures in Maharashtra. Mumbai was at 22c, and Pune dropped to 12.8c. Nasik was at 14.8c.
In the North too, the cities in the plains were between 10-12c, with Amritsar seeing 9.8c, Chandigarh 10.4c and Delhi Sjung 12.2c.
Posted on Friday Night @ 11.45 pm IST
A Low pressure forms in the Eastern Bay. Currently it is located at 13N and 97E. The adjoining trough will push the Low into the Andaman Islands and will initially deepen. This Low is capable of reaching the TN coast if it cruises South of 15N.
The Low will move Westwards, and bring precipitation to the Bay Islands. If, the system remains South of the 15N line, it would take the Westerly course, and bring rains to the TN coast by the time the clouding from the system reach the TN coast around the 13th of November.
The system will have enough strength on crossing the TN coast to bring good rainfall in TN from 13th -16th.
Infact, I see the rains moving inland and covering the entire Southern Peninsula. from Wednesday 13th.
Major NEM rains will elude Chennai at least till Tuesday/Wednesday 12th/13th, when, as explained above, clouds and rains from the Low will approach the TN coast.
Chennai rains intensity will increase after 13th/14th for the next 4/5 days.
Nights in Chennai were 22c, and the minimum is expected to be in the 21/22c range this weekend.
But, for the moment, next 3 days, Saturday thru Monday, the weather will be dry over both India and Pakistan.
Ensuing Easterlies will keep the interior peninsula pleasant, and cities in interior Maharashtra will be around 30c. NW winds in the Northern plains will keep the day around 25c.
Mumbai skies will be hazy, and partly cloudy on Saturday. Nights will be distinctly nippy from Sunday Night, when (on Monday morning) we see a low of 20/21c at Scruz, and maybe 18c in the outer townships.
Nights also going to 13/14c by Monday morning in Nasik. Pune and Aurangabad.
Next 2/3 nights, we may see the night temperatures dropping by 2/3c in the Punjab, Delhi NCR and Haryana regions.
Delhi NCR may hover around 12/14c and cities in Punjab around 10-13c.
WD-3 covers Kashmir and HP on Wednesday 13th. Another round of rain and snow in the region.