Monday, November 26, 2012

Progress Follow-Up: 11pm IST Tuesday:
1. A low has formed in the South Andaman, at 10N and 95E. Likely to strengthen a bit.
2. N-3 is moving East into Balochistan. May enter North Pakistan on Wednesday with gusty winds in Balochistan and Pak Punjab. The low over Arabia is now an UAC off the Oman coast. Cloudy weather for Karachi tomorrow.

Posted on Monday Night:
A Low is likely to form in the Eastern Bay, East of the Andaman Islands, by the 28th of November. Initially, on 29th, it will strengthen a bit, and move Westwards, and cover the Bay Islands.
I see some hindrance in the further westward track. As of today, the SST around the Islands is 30-31c. The SST progressively decreases as we move west. And, the SST, as we reach the Southern India coast is 28c and around 27c in the NE Indian coastline. That, would deter the further westwards track of the system beyond 93E. 
In fact, there is a 40% chance, that the system could even move Northwards along the Myanamar coast.
Let me stress, that is the synoptic situation today, and my track estimate is based on this scenario.

N-3, has formed, and the trough at sea level runs sloping NE from 50E to 60E. A 1010 low is pushing into the Oman region from the West, the Arabian peninsula. 
Rains expected in Muscat and Dubai next 2 days due to this low. This Low will push NE into the coastal Iran region.
N-3 precipitation can be expected in Balochistan and Western coastline of Pakistan on Tuesday, 27th. Karachi will be cloudy.
Precipitation moves into Northern plains of Pakistan and moderate precipitation in the extreme North of Pakistan. Snow in the mountains and light rains and cold days in Islamabad on Wednesday.

N-3 moves into Northern India on 28th. Rain and snow in Kashmir, HP from Wednesday thru Friday. Thursday, Punjab, Haryana and Delhi get light rains and cloudy weather. Snow expected in Gulmarg, Sonmarg, Pahalgam and other hill resorts. Chances of first snow of season for Srinagar on Thursday.

Delhi NCR will be cloudy and cool on Thursday. Day will be at a high of 22/23c, with light rains. Nights will be around 12c.

Kolkata, dry. Temperatures at night will be pleasant at around 14/15c for the next 2 nights. With N winds, day will be cool too. Winds turn NW from Thursday.

Mumbai: Another warm day on Tuesday, with days at 32/33c. and night around 19c at Scruz and 22c at Colaba on Tuesday morning. With N winds from Wednesday, days will drop to 30/31c and nights by about 2c.

Hottest in India today, Monday, was Ahmadnagar, 34.6c....a surprise entry today. Followed by Panjim at 34.5c. Lowest in Plains, 6.8c in Churu and Maharashtra 12.3c at Nasik.

From 27th morning to 30th morning, 4 night temperatures remaining before the results of the November contest ! 


Unknown said...

There will be no cyclone in the bay , the low is likely to move towards thailand and not towards TN coast, that is towards the east coast, the weather will be mostly mixture of sun and clouds in the weak north east monsooon will soon be entering into the last phase of this season.

Arpit Sharma said...

Absolute sunny day here in Delhi-
NCR with very bright sunshine...

Unknown said...

I am expecting a very wet December for TN

Krishna said...

is that a wild expectation for TN or you have some facts about it...wish your words come true....

Krishna said...

useful link


Arpit Sharma said...

Max/Min/24 hrs RF(mm)
Date:27-11-2012 Port
Blair 30.3/23.0/31.50
mm, Anantapur 32.3/21.1/
NIL, Hyderabad 30.4/20.4/
NIL, Kakinada 30.0/21.9/
NIL, Kurnool 32.3/21.1/
NIL, Nellore 32.0/23.5/
NIL, Nizamabad 32.5/19.8/
NIL, Ramagundam 32.6/19.3/
NIL, Tirupathi 31.0/20.8/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Vijaywada 31.2/21.5/
NIL, Vishakapatnam 29.3/21.0/
NIL, Itanagar 26.5/--/
NIL, Passighat 25.2/17.1/
NIL, Dhubri 24.0/15.4/
NIL, Dibrugarh 26.4/13.4/
NIL, Guwahati 25.3/12.4/
NIL, Jorhat 25.7/13.3/NIL, North
Lakhimpur 27.4/10.6/
NIL, Silchar 25.2/16.8/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Tezpur 27.2/11.5/
NIL, Bhagalpur 22.6/15.0/
NIL, Chapra --/--/NA,
Forbesganj --/--/NA,
Gaya 27.8/10.1/
NIL, Muzaffarpur --/--/NA,
Patna 26.8/10.7/
NIL, Purnea 27.9/9.0/NIL, Delhi
(Palam) 25.2/9.5/NIL, Delhi
(Safdarjung) 24.9/9.4/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Panjim 34.5/23.2/
NIL, Ahmedabad 32.2/13.8/
NIL, Baroda 32.4/15.4/
NIL, Bhuj 32.2/16.0/
NIL, Deesa 32.5/14.4/
NIL, Dwarka 29.8/20.0/
NIL, Naliya 31.5/10.3/
NIL, Porbandar 32.6/13.0/
NIL, Rajkot 32.8/15.7/
NIL, Surat 33.0/17.5/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Veraval 33.3/17.5/
NIL, Ambala 24.4/10.2/
NIL, Bhiwani 26.4/9.6/
NIL, Chandigarh 24.1/9.5/
NIL, Gurgaon 28.1/--/
NIL, Hissar 25.5/6.6/
NIL, Karnal 25.0/7.0/
NIL, Kurukshetra --/--/
NIL, Narnaul 27.0/6.8/
NIL, Rohtak --/--/NIL, Max/Min
Temp /24 hr RF(mm) Sirsa --/--/
NIL, Chamba 11.0/4.5/
NIL, Dharamsala 21.6/8.8/
NIL, Kalpa 12.2/-1.6/
NIL, Keylong 8.6/-3.7/
NIL, Kullu 21.6/1.8/
NIL, Manali 14.6/0.0/
NIL, shimla 16.4/5.6/
NIL, Solan 21.5/1.6/
NIL, Sundernagar 23.9/2.6/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Banihal 17.6/0.9/
NIL, Batote 16.8/5.2/
NIL, Bhaderwah 17.4/1.6/
NIL, Gulmarg 7.0/-4.9/
NIL, Jammu 24.2/8.9/
NIL, Katra 21.8/8.4/
NIL, Kupwara 16.0/-2.5/
NIL, Leh 4.8/-8.4/
NIL, Pehalgam 12.4/-3.8/
NIL, Qazigund 15.7/-2.4/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Srinagar 16.1/-1.7/0.80
mm, Jamshedpur 29.2/12.0/
NIL, Ranchi 25.4/11.2/
NIL, Belgaum 30.0/17.5/
NIL, Bellary 32.7/20.0/
NIL, Bengaluru 29.0/17.4/
NIL, Bijapur 30.3/18.5/
NIL, Chitradurga 30.9/20.2/
NIL, Gadag 31.0/19.0/
NIL, Gulbarga 32.6/20.4/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Hassan 31.6/16.6/
NIL, Honnavar 34.6/22.4/
NIL, Madikeri 26.0/15.9/
NIL, Mangalore 35.5/24.4/
NIL, Mysuru 29.9/17.7/
NIL, Raichur 32.4/19.3/

Arpit Sharma said...

NIL, Kannur 34.6/24.3/
NIL, Kochi 33.6/24.6/
NIL, Kottayam 34.0/23.2/
NIL, kozhikode 34.1/24.8/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Thiruvananthapu ram
NIL, Agati 31.7/27.3/NIL, Amini
Divi 33.6/25.8/
NIL, Kavarati 31.0/27.1/
NIL, Minicoy 32.7/27.0/
NIL, Bhopal 29.3/12.6/
NIL, Gwalior 27.6/9.2/
NIL, Indore 30.6/14.7/
NIL, Jabalpur 29.1/13.0/
NIL, Akola 33.5/20.2/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Aurangabad 32.4/19.0/
NIL, Dahanu 28.7/19.4/
NIL, Harnai 30.0/23.2/
NIL, Mahabaleshwar 25.3/16.9/
NIL, Mumbai 32.8/18.8/
NIL, Nagpur 31.7/15.6/
NIL, Nanded 31.5/18.0/
NIL, Nasik 32.5/14.5/
NIL, Parbhani 32.9/19.2/
NIL, Pune 31.7/16.9/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Ratnagiri 33.5/20.0/
NIL, Sholapur 33.2/22.2/
NIL, Imphal 27.4/5.6/
NIL, Cherrapunji 19.9/6.0/
NIL, Shilong 15.5/7.3/
NIL, Aizwal 24.1/--/
NIL, Lengpui 23.3/10.3/
NIL, Kohima 20.5/6.5/
NIL, Angul 29.1/14.6/
NIL, Balasore 30.8/14.5/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Bhubneshwar 30.0/16.0/
NIL, Cuttack 28.4/14.4/
NIL, Gopalpur 29.6/18.5/
NIL, Jharsuguda 29.8/13.4/
NIL, Koraput 25.0/11.0/
NIL, Paradip 29.2/18.6/
NIL, Puri 29.6/19.0/
NIL, Sambalpur 29.3/12.7/
NIL, Titlagarh 29.0/16.6/
NIL, Pondicherry 31.4/23.1/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Amritsar 25.4/7.0/
NIL, Anandpur Sahib --/--/
NIL, Bhatinda --/--/
NIL, Chandigarh 24.1/9.5/
NIL, Jalandhar --/--/
NIL, Ludhiana 24.9/7.3/
NIL, Pathankot --/--/
NIL, Patiala 25.6/9.1/
NIL, Ajmer 27.4/12.7/
NIL, Barmer 28.2/14.6/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Bikaner 28.5/11.9/
NIL, Churu 28.0/6.4/
NIL, Jaipur 29.0/12.4/
NIL, Jaisalmer 28.5/11.8/
NIL, Jodhpur 28.7/14.8/
NIL, Kota 29.3/13.5/NIL, Mount
Abu 25.0/6.0/
NIL, Sriganganagar 26.9/8.2/
NIL, Udaipur 28.4/10.4/
NIL, Gangtok 13.5/7.6/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Tadong 19.2/9.2/
NIL, Chennai 30.1/22.2/
NIL, Coimbatore 31.0/21.3/
NIL, Kanyakumari 29.6/26.3/
NIL, Kodaikanal 16.8/9.8/
NIL, Madurai 32.8/23.7/
NIL, Nagapattinam 30.5/25.6/
NIL, Pamban 29.0/27.0/
NIL, Salem 31.7/21.0/
NIL, Tiruchirapalli 32.1/23.5/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Vellore 32.6/17.3/
NIL, Agra 26.0/7.5/
NIL, Aligarh 25.0/10.0/
NIL, Allahabad 28.3/11.3/
NIL, Bahraich 26.6/--/
NIL, Gorakhpur 26.3/8.2/
NIL, Jhansi 28.2/12.6/
NIL, Kanpur 26.7/9.3/
NIL, Lucknow 26.8/9.9/
NIL, Meerut 24.8/11.0/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Moradabad 24.5/12.0/
NIL, Sultanpur 26.4/9.2/
NIL, Varanasi 27.9/12.5/
NIL, Dehradun 23.3/7.5/
NIL, Joshimath 15.4/4.4/
NIL, Mukteshwar 15.4/3.5/
NIL, Nainital 16.5/6.5/
NIL, Pantnagar 25.0/3.5/
NIL, Pithoragarh 19.5/4.4/
NIL, Tehri 17.0/4.0/NIL, Max/
Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Bankura 30.6/13.1/
NIL, Coochbehar 25.6/11.5/
NIL, Digha 30.0/15.2/
NIL, Jalpaiguri 25.6/12.7/
NIL, Kolkata 29.1/15.9/
NIL, Krishnanagar 26.6/14.0/
NIL, Malda 27.4/15.1/
NIL, Sriniketan 28.5/12.4/NIL,

Unknown said...

Rajesh, I have a question regarding the contest. Do we have to be within the range or the closest wins. For ex. Chennai has got 40, the least somebody has predicted iss 100-125. Does that person get a point?

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Kea Weather.A per Rajesh Sir previously mentioned, that Points will be given only when the actual readings will fall within our predicting range..
Ex. If we predicted Chennai Rains as 100-150mm then Actual IMD readings should be also fall between 100 to 150mm range only . But if that not happens then points gone !!

Rajesh said...

Kea: No, KEA,we should and will stick within the rules. I quote the rule "within the range"...please understand changing would create more complications and confusions..thanks for the support.:)
And wet december..something we dont know ? :)
Arpit: Wait for Thursday.

Unknown said...

chennai/ TN, to have a wet december is something out of the question, which is very unlikely, at least this year definitely not possible.

Arpit Sharma said...

Max/Min/24 hrs RF(mm)
Date:28-11-2012 Port
Blair 28.0/24.6/7.70
mm, Anantapur 31.6/17.2/
NIL, Hyderabad 29.7/18.4/
NIL, Kakinada 30.3/21.3/
NIL, Kurnool 31.4/19.7/
NIL, Nellore 31.4/22.7/
NIL, Nizamabad 31.9/19.8/
NIL, Ramagundam 31.0/18.1/
NIL, Tirupathi 31.0/19.5/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Vijaywada 30.8/19.8/
NIL, Vishakapatnam 29.4/20.0/
NIL, Itanagar 25.8/--/
NIL, Passighat 24.7/15.0/
NIL, Dhubri 24.2/14.2/
NIL, Dibrugarh 26.9/12.3/
NIL, Guwahati 25.0/11.9/
NIL, Jorhat 25.0/12.6/NIL, North
Lakhimpur 26.4/9.8/
NIL, Silchar 24.6/15.2/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Tezpur 26.6/11.2/
NIL, Bhagalpur 22.4/14.0/
NIL, Gaya 27.2/9.5/
NIL, Patna 27.1/10.5/
NIL, Purnea 26.9/9.0/NIL, Delhi
(Palam) 25.5/10.3/NIL, Delhi
(Safdarjung) 25.5/8.5/
NIL, Panjim 34.3/23.7/
NIL, Ahmedabad 32.6/13.5/
NIL, Baroda 32.7/15.1/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Bhuj 32.5/17.1/
NIL, Deesa 32.8/13.4/
NIL, Dwarka 31.0/20.2/
NIL, Naliya 32.5/10.5/
NIL, Porbandar 33.0/13.4/
NIL, Rajkot 33.7/15.1/
NIL, Surat 32.6/16.6/
NIL, Veraval 32.2/15.5/
NIL, Ambala 24.7/10.4/
NIL, Chandigarh 24.4/9.0/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Chamba 10.5/4.0/
NIL, Dharamsala 21.8/8.4/
NIL, Kalpa 13.9/0.1/
NIL, Keylong 9.0/-2.9/
NIL, Kullu 21.7/1.8/
NIL, Manali 14.0/1.6/
NIL, shimla 16.6/5.9/
NIL, Solan 21.4/1.4/
NIL, Sundernagar 23.1/3.1/
NIL, Banihal 19.6/5.9/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Batote 17.4/7.7/
NIL, Bhaderwah 19.3/5.2/
NIL, Gulmarg 8.0/-7.5/
NIL, Jammu 23.3/9.7/
NIL, Katra 20.7/10.4/
NIL, Kupwara 16.5/2.3/
NIL, Leh 9.0/-4.2/
NIL, Pehalgam 12.2/1.4/
NIL, Qazigund 15.9/3.6/
NIL, Srinagar 15.5/4.2/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Jamshedpur 28.2/11.4/
NIL, Ranchi 25.6/10.4/
NIL, Belgaum 29.9/14.8/
NIL, Bellary 32.5/17.8/
NIL, Bengaluru 28.2/16.0/
NIL, Bijapur 30.0/16.6/
NIL, Chitradurga 29.9/15.6/
NIL, Gadag 30.6/17.5/
NIL, Gulbarga 32.4/20.3/
NIL, Hassan 31.8/17.2/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Honnavar 35.0/21.4/
NIL, Madikeri 26.2/14.1/
NIL, Mangalore 34.3/23.6/
NIL, Mysuru 29.0/16.9/
NIL, Raichur 31.0/16.4

Arpit Sharma said...

NIL, Kannur 34.7/24.1/
NIL, Kochi 33.6/24.0/
NIL, Kottayam 34.2/23.5/
NIL, kozhikode 33.5/24.6/
NIL, Thiruvananthapuram
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Agati 31.9/26.9/
NIL, Amini Divi 34.1/25.9/
NIL, Minicoy 32.6/26.5/
NIL, Bhopal 30.6/14.0/
NIL, Gwalior 28.2/9.3/
NIL, Indore 31.0/14.6/
NIL, Jabalpur 28.5/12.8/
NIL, Akola 33.7/20.4/
NIL, Mumbai 32.6/19.2/
NIL, Nagpur 31.7/16.4/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Nasik 32.3/14.0/
NIL, Pune 32.1/15.7/
NIL, Imphal 24.4/5.6/
NIL, Cherrapunji 19.0/6.3/
NIL, Shilong 16.1/7.4/
NIL, Aizwal 23.4/--/
NIL, Lengpui 23.6/10.2/
NIL, Kohima 20.2/5.6/
NIL, Angul 29.1/14.0/
NIL, Balasore 30.4/15.4/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Bhubneshwar 30.4/16.7/
NIL, Cuttack 28.5/14.0/
NIL, Gopalpur 30.5/17.4/
NIL, Jharsuguda 29.9/13.4/
NIL, Koraput 25.0/11.0/
NIL, Paradip 30.0/17.2/
NIL, Puri 30.7/18.9/
NIL, Sambalpur 29.8/12.6/
NIL, Titlagarh 28.5/--/
NIL, Pondicherry 31.2/21.3/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Amritsar 24.8/6.8/
NIL, Anandpur Sahib --/--/
NIL, Chandigarh 24.4/9.0/
NIL, Ajmer 28.6/13.0/
NIL, Barmer 27.6/12.4/
NIL, Bikaner 29.8/13.0/
NIL, Churu 27.8/6.1/
NIL, Jaipur 29.0/11.7/
NIL, Jaisalmer 29.5/13.2/
NIL, Jodhpur 29.4/12.0/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Kota 29.2/13.7/
NIL, Sriganganagar 26.8/7.6/
NIL, Udaipur 28.8/11.0/
NIL, Gangtok 13.3/8.8/
NIL, Tadong 18.4/10.6/
NIL, Chennai 30.0/20.6/
NIL, Coimbatore 31.4/20.9/
NIL, Kanyakumari 30.1/24.8/1.00
mm, Kodaikanal 18.0/9.8/
NIL, Madurai 32.4/23.6/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Nagapattinam 30.3/23.0/
NIL, Pamban 30.0/26.7/
NIL, Salem 32.2/19.2/
NIL, Tiruchirapalli 31.8/22.3/
NIL, Vellore 32.4/19.3/
NIL, Agartala 27.1/11.6/
NIL, Kailashahar 27.8/12.1/
NIL, Almora 21.6/0.3/
NIL, Dehradun 25.2/7.6/
NIL, Haridwar 23.1/6.0/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Joshimath 17.4/4.7/
NIL, Mukteshwar 17.3/4.3/
NIL, Mussorie 14.1/5.0/
NIL, Nainital 17.5/6.5/
NIL, Pantnagar 24.2/3.9/
NIL, Pithoragarh 20.4/4.7/
NIL, Roorkee 23.9/6.0/
NIL, Tehri 17.7/4.5/
NIL, Bankura 28.8/12.8/
NIL, Coochbehar 25.5/11.5/
NIL, Max/Min Temp /24 hr RF
(mm) Digha 28.8/13.7/
NIL, Jalpaiguri 24.9/12.4/
NIL, Kolkata 28.4/15.1/
NIL, Krishnanagar 27.0/12.5/
NIL, Malda 27.0/15.1/
NIL, Sriniketan 27.2/12.3/NIL

sset said...

Cauvery Water talks between TN and KAR failed. Chronic drought. Myself still maintain - possible gradual desertification/dryness over South East India. NE monsoon currents may weaken and not reach south India in future. Intersection region of AP,KAR,TN may be the hot spot.

6th December  Cyclone Michaung nears the end of it's life cycle in Telangana.  It will go into  records for causing extremely very heavy...