Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Upper Level Chart has the Low (BB-11) super Imposed to show exactly what is happening now...Easterly Wave dragging  and "consuming"  the Low ..as was estimated yesterday..
see ** marked below

N-2 precipitation enters Western Pakistan's Balochistan region from Wednesday, 21st. Precipitation can be expected from Wednesday thru Thursday in Balochistan, Northern Punjab and Extreme North Pakistan mountains. Punjab(Pakistan) will be cloudy.

Winter nights will commence in Sindh from Wednesday 21st and for next 2/3 nights, will see the temperatures drop by 2/3 c. 
The lowest in plains on Tuesday 20th was Sibbi at 2.5c, and Quetta AP was -1.5c. Islamabad was 25c today(Tuesday)in the day.
Karachi can expect around 15c and Hyderabad 12/13c next 2 nights. Initially, Islamabad will see rain on Wednesday, and a drop in night temperatures subsequently.

As N-2 moves into India, it encounters the ridge, and may weaken. Thus, what can be expected is rain and snow in Kashmir, HP on Wednesday 21st and Thursday 22nd. Snow could be expected in the Hills of Kashmir, and upper reaches of HP.

Delhi NCR will be see high clouds and cool NW winds from Thursday 22nd. Drop in temperatures by 2/3c from Thursday 22nd night. 
Similar weather estimate for Chandigarh. Nights getting cold after Thursday in Rajasthan, Punjab and delhi NCR.

In the South, the current Low in the Bay prevails in the vicinity and is "aimless' and without direction.Will become an UAC tomorrow.

**The Easterly wave trough will soon consume the moisture from the UAC. On strengthening, the easterly trough will move Westwards as is the normal with such easterly waves. 

Precipitation along TN coast and interior TN from Thursday. Heavier along coast.

Mumbai  Colaba and Scruz were 33c on Tuesday. Wednesday will however be around 31c, with N/NW winds. Night on Tuesday will be milder, with Wednesday morning seeing  18c in Scruz and 22c in Colaba.
A drop in nights expected from Friday (morning temps).

Pune will be getting East winds next 2 days. Hence a rise in the night temperature from the pleasant 8.6c..maybe to around 11c. Days will be around 29c.

Dubai Today on InterActive Page...
An Interesting and worth learning Phenomena in Meteorolgy..Cloud Streets...on International Page . A must see for Freshers in Meteorology. 


Arpit Sharma said...

The current low has gained strength with CTT reaching -70c.

Abhijit Modak said...

Today min temp raised here Badlapur as 14 C @ 6am.

ameya said...

when you see drop in night temps in Mumbai from friday...where do u see them..say below 15degc that would be cold

Tyrone said...

Rajesh, finally, winter in Karachi :) Can't wait!!!!!

Rajesh said...

ameya: Last night 9Wed morning temp) was 18c at Scruz and 22c at colaba as estimated in blog yesterday.Pune was also 11c, as mentioned.
Now, i mentioned a drop from Friday, that is from these levels. Scruz could fall to 15c and colaba agin to 20c...

Rajesh said...

Rohit: Being interested in this field for 45 years, i have plenty of papaer and documented records..mostly collected from personal visits to obsevatiry libraries and BNHS library. Old records and information is also exchanged personally with Max, a master in records on International weather,on regular basis. In fact he is also reconfirming the Scruz day record again for us.
You may also refer to
Blandford, H.F. (1889). A "Practical Guide to the Climates and Weather of India, Ceylon and Burmah and the Storms of Indian Seas." search in google for this book.

Rohit 10 said...

@ Rajesh sir : Thanks for the reference book..U r forecast details reflect ur experience and are the best amongst what i have read and referred till now..

Just for reference , I checked some of my documented records and newspapers as well..

For Santacruz , a maximum temp of 22.3 C had been recorded on 8 Feb 2008 ( It was the coldest ever feb morning with min at 8.5 c !! )..

But could not confirm if it is the lowest max ever at santacruz..

For reference :
please go to page no.6, article name - ' will the mercury dip lower than in 62 ? ' (TOI -Mumbai dated 9 feb 2008) :


Rajesh said...

rohit: Thanks for the TOI link...answered you in a bit of haste. I should take time and check before replying :)
Yes, even Vagaries' link below shows the lowest Mumbai Max as 22.3c in 2008.
actually there are no links for getting the coldest day..this is not maintained as records by IMD..dont know why? We have to rely on our collections..
check this 2008 vagaries link


can u mail me on my email ?

Rajesh said...

Temperatures as on Wednesday 21st November:
Hottest in Asia: Tual (Indonesia): 40.0c, Makkah: 37c.
Hottest in India :Nellore: 35.4c.
Hottest in Pakistan : Chorr: 34.0c.
Coldest in Asia: Toko (Russia): -41c.
Coldest in India: Hills: Darbuk (Ladakh): -17c, Leh: -4c.
Plains: Karnal (Haryana): 7.0c
Coldest in Maharashtra: Nasik: 8.4c.
Coldest in TN: OOty (hills): 8c.

Abhijit Modak said...

Today further chillness reduced in Badlapur as 21 C @ 11pm. Yesterday it was 19 C @ 11pm .

Rajesh said...

Abhijit: Yes, milder till Friday..as per last published..

Neeraj said...

Any changes for us ??

Rohit 10 said...

Sir , can i please get ur mail id ..

mine is : rohitaros@yahoo.in

Krishna said...

Dear Rajesh,

This is krishna fron chennai liked your blog a lot..I have lots of interest in meteorology..found your site very useful.

Guess nilam cyclone has really distrubed the NE monsoon do you see a revival? Belt from Kavali to Mahabalipuram has acutally received less rainfall. It started on a great note but threeweeks into november no rain yet...just starting to rain now...will chennai get normal rainfall this season.

sset said...

Agree with you Krishna...Infact with current figures average TN rain is lowest in India!!!

Unknown said...

chennai as mentioned earlier will receive lesss rains then its normal quota this monsoon season

Unknown said...

temperature likely to hover around 18 to 20 degrees in mumbai atleast for few days

Abhijit Modak said...

Today max temp also raised in Badlapur as 32.5 C @ 3pm.

Unknown said...

Not only Temperature is increasing but humidity is also increasing in mumbai.

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