Wednesday, October 31, 2012

East-West trough with system   embedded..(as per post below)** of 1400Z  1st November

Thursday @ 5.30 am IST:  
BB-10, a depression now, is centred at 13.8N and 77.5E. According to my estimate and imagery study, the centre is about 100 kms North of Bangalore, between Bangalore and Anantpur. 
At 998 mb, with core winds at 35 knts, the confusion amongst readers of vagaries is the mass clouding in the East. 

The spiral circulation has "stretched" to the east due to "fixation" in the East-West trough. The trough seems to be tilted to the East, as of today morning...

Forecast below...

Posted @ 11.45 pm Wednesday:
Cyclone Nilam is gone and its a Deep Depression now. So, we'll come back to BB-10.

Current Position at 11.00 pm shows it at 13.3N and 78.2E , near  Kolar in Karnataka, and movement W/NW thru Tumkur.

Chennai rainfall decreases by Friday (15-20 mms), and will be down to between 7-10 mms/day Saturday/Sunday. 

**BB-10 tracks W/NW, and soon gets embedded in an East-West trough along the Maharashtra-Northern AP-Northern Karnataka line. This trough will extend into the upper levels at least till 850 hpa.

Forecast Thursday 1st November- Friday 2nd November: 
Rainfall can be expected all along this trough line, with the heavier falls in the region the BB-10 system is embedded. Hence precipitation spreading into interior Karnataka, Northern AP and Southern Maharashtra, Western Vidharbha and Marathwada. 
Light/medium rains drifting into Konkan and coastal Karnataka.

Saturday 3rd November: If the trough and BB-10 remain intact and sustainable (which is questionable as it is not the season), we may see some enhanced rainfall along the Konkan belt.  If they have faded, then decrease in rainfall in the above mentioned regions.

(Indications for Mumbai observers in next 2 days if the trough is sustaining. Easterly winds in Mumbai will change to SE or S if its sustains).

We may even chance a guess of the system leaving the rough and sliding into the Arabian Sea on Saturday (50% chance)..hence we wait and observe...

Mumbai City: 
Thursday 1st: Partly cloudy and hazy. Medium clouds from evening..
Friday 2nd: Partly cloudy. Light drizzles expected in some parts...rains upto 5 mms
Saturday 3rd: Cloudy, and cooler. Light rains, with medium heavy showers in some areas. Rains 5-10 mms. (tentative)

Pune: Thursday/Friday/Saturday: Cloudy with light rains upto 5 mms/day in different areas.Chance of a bit more on Saturday.

Kolkata remains stuffy on Thursday and Friday, finally getting showers on Saturday.

Northern Sub-Continent:
North of the trough line, the winds will be Easterly, and South of the system winds will be S/SE.
The trough, as it gets strengthened by the system, will see stronger N/NE winds. Result: Goodbye to O-3. It will never allow O-3, which was precipitating rains even in Dubai few days ago, will just dissolve in the far North.
But, a resulting high pressure in its place will bring clear weather and low temperatures in Northern India. 
In fact, even Pakistan's central and Northern regions see a fall in night temperatures.

Maharashtra Rainfall figures, Cumulative till End October..compiled (as usual) by GSB..on Stats Page 


GSB said...

Thanks Rajesh sir,

Looking forward to that TOI interview !!

GSB said...

RAjesh sir,

Congrats on that 300,000 hits !!!

Abhijit Modak said...

Morning sunrise snap at Vagaries FB page. Badlapur having cirrus clouds with some blackness in cloud beneath.

So min temp increased by 1 C today. Yesterday it was 16.5 C. Today min temp of Badlapur is 17.5 C @ 6am.
Karjat AWS also showing 17.5 C today.

Arpit Sharma said...

Finally after a long time O-3 fizzled out without having any effect on India whereas cyclone ''NILAM''(Now BB-10) having effect on Northern India including Delhi-NCR with hazy days full of dust and mist.

Unknown said...

Rajesh sir ;
is it likely to receive showers in and around mumbai for 3 days. fri-sun.

emkay said...

as predicted by few models, Nilam seems to spawned two separate systems one to North and one to south !!

Nimish Thaker said...

Spoke with my brother in Bangalore, he indicated to fairly heavy rains in Bangalore currently.

Rajesh said...

sam khan: But i have given my views in the same blog that you ask about Mumbai ??

emkay: dont understand the splitting part..2 systems now ?

sset said...

No Rajesh/Puneet Bangalore is just cloudy with odd drizzles. Total rain for 2 days is just 20mm. Myself very disappointed no heavy rains as expected.

TN also fared very bad. Maximum rain was just 100mm at 1 or 2 places. IMD predicted extremely heavy falls > 250-300mm for 3 days, but now no warning. Also cyclone weakened rapidly with no heavy rains but only winds. Earlier TN UAC was better. This cyclone looks same like 2010 TN cyclone.

What makes cyclone devoid of rains? By any means now TN/KAR needs only rains.

emkay said...

Reports from North Kerala of heavy rain. Kerala in south and Andhra in north both claiming credit of Nilam :)

emkay said...

Think AS-2 is responsible for rains in Kerala from South west like monsoons.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ sset . Yesterday where you really in Bangalore city ??

How can you say 81.5mm rain recorded in just 24hrs period an just drizzle!!

IMD reports confirmed city's max temp was 19.9 C yesterday and min temp today morning was 18.6 C. So quite cold there.

And now Rain figure from IMD till 8.30am Thursday on 1st Nov 2012 for past 24hrs is

Bangalore city 81.5mm
Bangalore(HAL) AP 77.2mm

So quite heavy spells fallen. If you still don't believe then chick this link from IMD itself

Bangalore was having Incessant rain all through the day. Reports TOI paper too. so check this link

sset said...

Abhijit -From today morning Times of India Bangalore/Hindu which indicated 20mm of rain. You are correct accumulated rain may have amounted to 80mm - but it is still drizzles in steady pattern. Apologies for confusion.

Now it looks like Vidarbha/Marathwada may get spells.

But on whole cyclone did not give heavy falls say 300-400mm per day even for TN. This looks like 2010 cyclone "JAL" over TN - less rains than expected.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ sset.Okk. Newspaper which comes at our homes are printed at midnight or early morning in the printing press, so they collect rain data from IMD mostly up to 11.30pm only or at some occasion may be up to 8.30pm only!

And TOI already mentioned rainfall upto 11.30pm only was 26mm. So in late night and early morning Bangalore had heavy rain about 55mm more(So in short you may be in sleep when Bangalore had heavy spell at overnight ! ). So till 8.30am today total reached 81.5mm there .

Abhijit Modak said...

Badlapur max temp is 33 C today. Raised by 1.5 C . Yesterday it was 31.5 C only.

Unknown said...

No @ sset Imd has warned of Extremely heavy rainfall of over 25 cm or more over north Coastal Tamil Nadu.It also did For ex. Yercaud (Salem Dist) 24 cm, Alangayam (Vellore Dist) 20 cm recorded at 0830 hours IST of date.Even though it is not more but a heavy & also TN got more rainfall than Jal.
Hv a look at

NT said...

@SSET, as mentioned in my morning comment, while speaking with my brother who lives in Bangalore, he mentioned that his office was off and he was working from home due to rains. So I would doubt that it would only be drizzles.

Unknown said...

Looks like the system is fading now.But there is some activity going on EAST coast.

Unknown said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Unknown said...

looks like heavy showers are for sure in konkan and Goa, but hope the cloud drifts little up towards the north, into mumbai with winds turning favourable that is SSW, hope that happens by tommorow. as Rajesh sir has mentioned earlier about the winds turning SSE, also the trough will help the rain to slide upwards .at the moment looks like the winds will change their direction by night.

Vijayanand said...

We had heavy rainin bangalore yesterday. From 7.00 pm to 12.00 pm yesterday there was heavy rain.

Not sure where dear sset was :)

Its a cold and wet day today. Its ranginh between drizzle and light rain. NILAM was good for bangalore. 8+ cms rain came our way. Thank God!

Vijayanand said...

Also after midnight we had good rain yesterday.

sset said...

No problem we only wish good rains for every state. We still require 4-5 NEM depressions more for water reserves to fill up - this will help ease Cauvery tension between TN & KAR. But surprising "Neelam" quickly covered TN,AP now almost over MAH? This should have persisted over south for few days. Any more hits in pipeline?

Since myself seen Mumbai rains for many years - Bangalore rains seems to be just drizzle - Mumbai people work,travel with rain ranging from 100-300mm in a day. Anyway kind of climate in Bangalore today is similar to what Mumbai sees for 3 -4 months (NO SUN).

Unknown said...

An easterly wave is taking shape in Bay. could make it here by mid next week

Abhijit Modak said...

Badlapur having 22.7 C temp at 10.30pm

Pavan said...

To mr sset good wishes from my side i have left commenting on this blog once in rainy seasonwhen u have commeted it is raining heavily in navi mumbai but it was just 20mm but u say it drizzle for 81mm the difference is there u receive 81mm in an hr but here in blore u received it in 24 hr as constant drizzle if you a sincere request that better u specify u name as mere sset is just as anonymous and another request is please donot mislead readres on the blog
Rajesh sir i really apologoise for this comment

Unknown said...

a kind advice to you , is that plz do not exagerate things, it looks too much when someone reads it.(MUMBAI IS CERTAINLY NOT THE WETTEST PLACE ON EARTH).AS YOU ARE TRYING TO POTRAY, WE DO GET SUNLIGHT IN FOUR MONTHS RAINY SEASON PERIOD, NOT LIKE AS YOU SAID MUMBAI THERE IS NO SUN FOR 4 MONTHS , THAT IS ABSOLUTE NONSENSE.AND FOR UR INFORMATION , PLACES LIKE konkan and Goa are much wetter then mumbai , so dont try to put in too much, mumbai might be wetter then bangalore , delhi or pune , but certainly not more these i think u should stop your over rating business for mumbai. thanks.

Abhijit Modak said...

Today morning min temp further increased here.

Badlapur 20.5 C, Karjat AWS 20.3 C @ 6am

Unknown said...

as per our friend SSET it looks like Mumbai is the Cherapunji of Maharashtra , wow no sunlight in monsoon season , hahahahhahhahahaha what a hilarious joke that was.

Vijayanand said...

Sun has come out in bangalore. After two very cold days, people seem to enjoy sunshine :)
For a change I am also enjoying the sunshine :)
NILAM was very good for SE Karnataka and Rayalseema [AP]. Soething is better than nothing.

Abhijit Modak said...

As cloudy weather prevails over Maharashtra so Min temp got increased today .

Colaba 25.4 C ,Santacruz 22.8 C
Pune 19 C
Nashik 15.5 C
Aurangabad 22.1 C
Nagpur 22 C
Badlapur 20.5 C
Karjat AWS 20.3 C

Abhijit Modak said...

Some rain from remnant of Nilam across Maharashtra at 8.30am today on 02-11-2012

Sangli 21.60mm
Nagpur 1.5mm
Parbhani 0.60mm
Satara & Ratnagiri 0.05mm
Aurangabad 0.04mm

sset said...

Not an issue Sam Khan. I think people have not understood water problem in SE interior India. If you see even today average of TN rain is lesser than Marathwada/Vidharbha forget about Konkan. It is very true Mumbai monsoons during june-oct, aug/jul we never see SUN.

Anyway issue here Bangalore is not used to heavy rains - looks amusing for people.

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