Saturday, October 13, 2012

A high pressure is likely to form in the Bay by Saturday. This High is expected to last for 2 days till 15th October. 
The sea level pressure required during NEM is a large formation of low over the Bay.
But what we need for the NEM to advance is a prominent anti-cyclone at 500 hpa over the Central Myanmar region. This may start forming around the 16th of October. 

Till then, only the western side will get some precipitation, with west winds rushing towards the high. Thus keeping the SWM "alive in Kerala and adjoining TN.
Negative Parameter: 200Hpa westerly jet streams are still not perfectly formed, and upper level high is weak.

Positive Parameters for the NEM may commence from 16th October.

Mumbai City:
Mumbai Scruz touched a high of 33.9c on Friday, vagaries touched 34.0c. This was mainly due to the East breeze which prevented the sea breeze from setting in, which finally set in at around 12.15 pm on Friday. The temperature stabilised and "plateaued" after that. The humidity was at a low of 36% at 12.15 pm , and rose to some extent after that.

Saturday will also see East winds in the morning, and should see the temperature rising to 34/35c, before the sea breeze sets in..the timing has to be as early as possible to prevent a rise in day temperatures.

In spite of being indisposed, Pradeep has sent us this list..Thanks Pradeep from all of us and get well soon !

Toppers in Maharashtra -(1st June to 30th September) 
Kitwade - 6263 
Dajipur - 6083 
Amboli - 6055
Gaganbawda - 5402
Mahabaleshwar - 5235
Patgaon - 5214
Sangameshwar - 5201
Mulshi - 5151
Kasari - 5090

Ghat section will provide today


Rajesh said...

Viravanalluran: Let me understand, how do we connect the VSCS Thane, which occured in December 2o11, with the 2012 SWM ? A different (summer) season passed thru the intervening months, and totally nullified the effects if any.It had no bearing with the ensuing La-Nina then, nor the original cross equatorial SW winds.
Please correct my version if different ?

GSB said...

Rajesh sir, on one of my financial sites that I follow I came across this...

'Evelyn discusses how the El Niño weather pattern has returned; the only question is how strong it will be. She sees warmer and wetter weather for the US this winter, cold weather for Europe and warm and wet in Asia.'

Is it true that the El Nino has become positive and how will it effect the NEM ? Does it also have a bearing on the winter months.

GSB said...

NT, Thanks for the explanation about the relationship between humidity and temperature.. just when you think you know almost everything about a subject something happens which brings you back to reality. Long way to go.....

Viravanalluran said...

Dear Rajesh,
Thank you for prompt reply.
What I personally presume from my mentors view on 2012 SWM and "Thane" is this:

[1] Even though there was NO monsoon depression in BoB during this SWM 2012 period unusually there were more UAC {MTC in AS} above Planetary Boundary Layer level [i.e above 2000 m] which leads to heavy rainfall over NE region hills. Through out this season only this region maintained excess rainfall in the entire country.

[2] Even Kerala, Karnataka, Goa, [where the western ghat barrier maximum height is about 2678m (Annamalai)]experienced DEFICIENT rainfall of course barring coastal Karnataka by -23 to -33 percentage departure.

[3] "Thane" was predominately a wind cyclone and the organised winds were prominent in upper levels only. Such a great VSCS created only 150m tidal wave breach / erosion at Port,Cuddalore [too close to the place where it crossed land]

[4] With this perhaps my mentor meteorologist may have come to this conclusion

I wish I may be corrected if wrong!

Abhijit Modak said...

Today min temp of Badlapur is 21.5 C. Slight 0.5 C increase from yesterday's 21 C, Yesteday evening few patch of the thundercloud were seen in NE direction but dissipated after 8pm.

Neeraj said...

Kathmandu: Temp in the 13~28 Range now. Mornings are pleasant/cool.Will WD O-1 have any effect here? Rain? Fall in temperature? or nothing at all?

Abhijit Modak said...

Max temp is 34. 5 C constant from past 30mins here in Badlapur .

Rajesh said...

Mumbai: Saturday Sea breeze started at 12.30 pm. Low humidity was 41% and high 33c. vagaries high 32.9c..

Viravanalluran : What you say is correct, and assessment is logical. 2011 and 2012 had many UACs, and no pulses bringing in systems at sea levels from the Bay.
In fact, last year we had 4 strong systems from the Arabian sea at the fag end of the season..

Rajesh said...

abhijit: Yesterday (friday) thunder heads were shallow.. They are called "hollow thunderheads". Meaning they have a top, but down there is no base and no mid level clouding. Only top is there...

Unknown said...

Today's high of 36.1 C at 2:59p recorded in thane.

GSB said...

Pradeep : Thanks for the toppers figures of Maharashtra. I can understand the difficulty of gathering data from different sources and then compiling them in the descending order making sure you are not making any mistake especially if your health is not supporting physical activity.

Get well soon and hope to see the Ghat numbers and other lists from you as soon as you are fit !!

sset said...

iravanalluran - What is your opinion about possible desertification of south east interior India. Last 5 years many places received much less rain compared to jaisalmar/Kutch.

Bangalore - October - much worse than sept - NO RAIN -HOT.

Unknown said...

thunderheads were noticed here at vasai too in the evening.

Abhijit Modak said...

Thick fog engulf Badlapur today morning and visibility was totally reduced to 100 meters ! But reduced the chillness. Last two days temp were around 21 C . But today min temp was 23 C in Badlpaur, so increased by 2 C. Snaps of fog on Vagaries FB.

sset said...

IMD satellite -

shows well marked cyclonic depression (-10 degree latitude) - likely to move west (Africa/Madgasgar). This strom was near SriLanka moving north into TN (bringing bountiful rains)---but instead moved south west. Will this have negative impact on much required NEM???? Infact such movements of misses were seen last year 2011 also.


Rajesh said...

Sea breeze just setting in ,winds changing direction..(12.30pm, Sunday). Vagaries touched 34.8c Sunday, and humidity @ 36% Scruz and 45% vagaries...

Abhijit Modak said...

Here Badlapur having 34 C max temp at moment. Till half hour back ESE breeze was there but just now NW breeze has set now.

Abhijit Modak said...

But today's weather is somekind of different in temparature pattern ! From 2pm it's constant 34 C temp till now ! Actually temp starts to get reduce from 4pm but today at 4pm it touched to 34.5 C. So peak 34.5 C temp was at 4pm. Now it's 5pm then also still 34 C here in Badlapur.

  औरंगाबाद जिल्ह्यात पुढील 4 दिवस (3rd - 6th) कमी पाऊस पडेल. वादळी हवामान. तापमान अधिक गरम होईल. पिकांची काळजी घ्या