Tuesday, September 04, 2012

Posted @ 10.15 pm Wednesday..

And it has happened a day earlier than expected. A low has formed over Saurashtra at 1000 mb and is centred near Rajkot. This has brought down the active axis down South to Deesa (Gujarat) and runs west into BB6, now over MP and adjoining Vidharbha. 
Vidharbha got very heavy rains (as per forecast), with Nagpur getting 133 mms and Amravati 113 mms overnight and 69 mms till 5.30pm today.

Rainfall earlier forecasted for Sindh (Pakistan) for Thursday has commenced on Wednesday itself.Thatta  got 50 mms. Karachi got a good 35 mms, with several parts of city reporting good rains today (as per fb and blog reports).

Thursday: BB6 moves further westwards into Gujarat region, and, 
a) either merges with the low over Gujarat or b) the Gujarat low moves westwards also.

Rainfall in Saurashtra and Gujarat region can continue eitherway. 
Since rains have commenced in coastal Sindh and Karachi, it will continue on Thursday as systems move west. An inflow from the sea will push the rains into Sindh Northwards. Entire Sindh region will get moderate rains Thursday, with a few heavy falls in the South....

Mumbai forecast valid for Thursday as given:
"Thursday: Intermittent showers, frequented with long breaks continue. But, again, some heavy spells may add up the total to 30 mms."

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Wed afternoon Post:
BB6 moves West and lies over MP. Moving West at same strength.May merge with UAC if UAC remains intact.

Rainfall to increase in Northern Maharashtra and Adjoining Southern Gujarat coast (Surat).

Frequency and Intensity of rainfall may increase in North Konkan (Mumbai) by tonite.

The low, BB6, has deepened, and at 996 mb, lies over Chattisgarh and adjoining Vid. Major clouding associated with this low is seen in the Low itself, and moisture attracted clouding in the West of the system.
Nagpur recorded heavy rains on Tuesday, with 51 mms till 5.30 pm. 
BB6 is expected to move westwards. On Wednesday, Low will be centred North of Nagpur.

Wednesday, 5th: As BB6 tracks west, we may see very heavy rains in Vidarbha, Southern MP and adjoining Marathwada. Rainfall upto 100 mms expected in certain places. Rains moving into Indore region. 
Moderate* rains in Konkan will continue, with stations recording upto 13-15 cms in the ghats. 

Thursday, 6th: Rainfall will be heavy in Northern Maharashtra, adjoining Gujarat coast and South Rajasthan. Moderate rains continue in Konkan, with heavy falls in North Konkan.

Also on Thursday, new low descends ( from the existing UAC) off the Saurashtra coast. The west coast trough moves away westwards from Thursday.
Thursday, Saurashtra gets moderate rainfall. Moderate precipitation in adjoining Sindh, Central Sindh and Karachi.
Adjoining Sindh (SE) and coastal Pakistan are slated to get moderate rains also. Karachi can expect monsoon showers on Thursday, with the low moving west in the sea. 

With BB6 moving inland, the trough off the east coast gets "dismantled". Reducing rainfall in TN and Interior Karnataka next 2/3 days.

City Forecast:
Mumbai City: Tuesday (daytime) was dry in South Mumbai with only 3 mms of rain. Scruz managed 27 mms till 8.30 pm.
Heavy Tuesday overnight rains, upto 50-60 mms.

Wednesday: Cloudy skies, with showers interspersed during the day. The day's total to around 35 mms(Avg) gives an indication of the quantum of rain. 

Thursday: Intermittent showers, frequented with long breaks continue. But, again, some heavy spells may add up the total to 35 mms.

Thane region can get heavy rains on Thursday.

Pune: Wed/Thursday: cloudy, with light rains in certain areas.

Delhi NCR: Wednesday/Thursday: Sporadic local showers in some areas. Rainfall will be restricted to local pockets as it is not from any organised system. Rainfall upto 10 mms where it rains.
Rainfall can increase on Friday in Haryana and NCR

Surat: Rainfall increasing on Thursday.


GSB said...

Rajesh sir I am planning to go to Shirdi in day or two. But I want to avoid heavy rainfall on the way (by road) . The cloud images right now look pretty menacing for that area. Any suggestions?

GSB said...

"I can imagine 1 day of Mumbai rain is enough to wipe out Bangalore from India map - worst Bangalore infrastructure." - SSET.

SSET , Have you ever considered being a cartoonist?

Rajesh said...

gsb: i'll come back in 45 mins...

Pavan said...

I lost all intrest in commenting. Enjoying weather very far in the hills of uttaranchal visitd landsdown chamoli badrinath mussoorie tommrow leaving for
"atacama/ethopia/etc etc of india" bangalore hope the dry and hot days continue for the Sset's city so my friend wil be happy good night to all
Happy Teachers day to Rajesh sir.

Abhijit Modak said...

Drizzling in Badlapur from 10.30pm. And can see very low levels clouds just at 400ft height coming from south direction.

Rajesh said...

GSB:i think rains will move west into north madhya mah from Wed night or thursday. We can expect heavy rains on kasara ghats and Nasik areas till friday...accordingly take a decision

GSB said...

Thanks Rajesh sir! I think will postpone to Sat/Sun or later looking at the situation then.

Rajesh said...

heavy rains lashing here.recorded 20 mms in last 25 minutes..

Ron said...

erm...there seems to be some lightning activity happening in deonar region..anyone else confirm??

Also raining for the past half hour...

Ashok patel said...

Please correct the typo of BB5 to BB6

Abhijit Modak said...

First of all Happy Teachers day to Rajesh Sir.

Yesterday Badlapur had heavy rains from early morning till afternoon period then continuous drizzling to medium rains till 7pm.So saw non stop rains for 18hrs. Then from night 10.30pm to early morning 6am saw light rains. Now at moment just drops falling.

So overall Badlapur records 130mms rain in past 24hrs.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am on 05-09-2012).

Pradeep said...


No rains in Chennai for past two days.

Further, the rainfall in Coastal Karnataka continues unabated

Rainfall in mm ending 05.09.12

Aralagod 130
Arendur 102.6
Hosakere 93.2
Kollur 90.4
Dharmasthala 75.2
Rae 70
Kogar 69
Aluru 68
Hethur 66.6
Bandal 66
Kerekatte 65.8
Kottigehara 63.5
Surlabhi 61.4
Bilur 61
Gokarna 60.9
Hallibailu 60.4
Harle 60
Linganamakki 57.6
Mudabidri 57.2
Maageri 55
Naravi 54.6
Mulikar 53.4
Kundapur 50.8
Kadra 50.4

Rajesh said...

Vagaries retained Tuesday forecast for Mumbai, resisting readers requests to change it.
Against the Tuesday forecasted average of 35 mms, the city avgeraged 32 mms between Scruz and Colaba.
However,Tuesday night rainfall was lower than expected in South Mumbai. Colaba managed 23 mms at night.

Thane city recorded 97 mms against our estimate of upto 75 mms.

emkay said...

Panvel got continuous rains post 9 PM till 6 AM. It was of Moderate intensity.

Rajesh said...

Against estimate of 65-75 mms, Panvel got 58 mms and Thane 97 mms.

Amit Tare said...

Hello Rajesh Bhai,
Its rained and rained heavily yesterday in Nagpur, and the drizzle has continued till today morning and it continues to rain.
In Newspaper it was recorder 68 mm until 8.30 pm last night.
Amit From Nagpur

Rajesh said...

Thanks guys. We are all learning, and never maintained a teacher/student relations, only interacted with each other,with all of us having a common interest. here..would love to impart whatever i know with your support and enthusiasm.

Tyrone said...


KHI received light rains early today morning and then again at 7.30 am for about half and hour.

Rajesh can you tell if both the UAC that will descend to a low and the BB6 together give rains in Sindh/karachi or just the UAC low?

NT said...

Rajeshbhai, wishing you a very Happy teacher's day.

I too am travelling to Shirdi on Friday late afternoon, returning back on Sunday, thanks for the forecast on that route.

Abhijit Modak said...

Official Rain data of mainland township of today ending at 8.30am on 05-09-2012 in mms around Mumbai region.

Kalyan 207mm
Bhiwandi 175mm
Alibaug 151mm
Barvi Dam, Badlapur 149mm
Ulhasnagar 140mm
Ambernath 135mm
Badlapur(own measured) 130mm
Karjat 129mm
Murbad 113mm
Thane 97mm
Panvel 58mm
Vasai 47mm

Abhijit Modak said...

Mumbai city had not got much Rains Yesterday. But 50kms East of Mumbai and towns from Bhiwandi to Kalyan to Badlapur belt in Thane District has received very heavy rains ranging between 150 to 210mm yesterday..

SoYesterday flooding was reported on Railway stations tracks & Roads and even water enter in some low lying area houses of Bhiwandi,Kalyan, Ulhasnagar ,Ambernath & Badlapur area.

And I already posted some snaps of it on Vagaries page of FB.

NT said...

@Ron, the Mumbai airport report does not state any lightning / thunder activity yesterday. I also checked the 24 hr. lightning map loop for Mumbai - no lightning anywhere close to Mumbai in the past 24 hrs.

Ron said...

@NT:-Oh ok..then i may have mistaken..did have doubts though..thanks..

Happy Teachers day rajesh sir... :)

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Nagpur Star. Nagpur City records 133mms rain in past 24hrs.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am on 05-09-2012).

Tyrone said...

Heavy rain started here in Karachi just now for 20 mins ago. It's now slowed down and raining lightly and very dark and overcast.

junaid said...

it was drizzly in panvel after noon,,,and 4 spells of very heavy showers occured ,,bu they wer not persisiting,,nd a hint of sun was also visiblt today at one tym!!

GSB said...

What a day yeasterday (till 8.30 am today) for CI. All 10 subdivisions reporting excess rainfall. And the topper here? Much needed rain in Saurashtra and Kutch !! It had 23.4mm against normal of 2.8mm (+736%).

Othere significant subdivisions all India;

Gangetic WB +526%
Vidharbha +647%
Konkan &Goa +332%

CI and SPIN are now same with 6% deficit rainfall for this monsoon.

Pavan said...

Just reachd sset's blore bit warm but nt so bad as expectd egar to reach pune, as told by friends and col's drizzling continuosly from 4pm good for just my terrace pot's. Rajesh til when we can receive a local convectn in int mah and karnataka north really sad. As mumbaikar all are exted comment on the blog but nt we as no rains, i hope its the driest swm for me in pune i am here frm 2006

Pradeep said...

Todays Topper in Rainfall in Maharashtra

Bhimkund in Gadchiroli district which as annual average of 1452 mm got 426 mm in last 24hrs ending 8.30 am on 05.09.12

sset said...

Bangalore 5th day of no september rains. Rain since june 250mm only.In fact it has rained only 2 days since june. As per norms withdrawl of SWM should start with sept from Rajisthan, but rains are becoming vigourous over central India - with fresh UACs in pipeline. All this implies worse for NEM. Satellite pic shows nil clouds over southern India.

Bauty of rains over Maharashtra - rains are evenly distributed over all regions (excess to normal - including Marathwada).

Anonymous said...

Does the forecast for Mumbai remain the same for Thursday as you have mentioned sir?

Anonymous said...

Someone please help sset get his brain examined. Look here: http://www.imd.gov.in/section/nhac/dynamic/Monsoon_frame.htm ; The deficit in Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra is worse than NI and SI Karnataka.

Anonymous said...

What can make SSET happy
a) Entire India face drought

b) 365*24 hours rain in Bangalore

c) option a and b

d) nothing can make SSET happy

Pavan said...

I do knw how we can make sset happy he makes us sad, "as in chemistry a reducing agent oxidises itself" sset u are a great weatherman even drought and rain listen to you in blore i am here in blore tonight no rains but feeling cooler than pune

Anonymous said...

its a very sad thing to see that this comment blog is no more interesting because of such comments are passed.i feel personnally everyone should leave sset all by himself just ignore him completely , which is the best solution to this so called headache.

Abhijit Modak said...

Yesterday Badlapur had overcast conditions with rain spell in interval sometimes drizzles & sometimes brief medium to heavy spells.

So overall Badlapur records 26mms rain in past 24hrs.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am on 06-09-2012).

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Whether another Low or UAC forming over NW Bay of Bengal around 9 to 12th September period !

pavan said...

just reached pune green drizzling lightly
and too cloudy, learnt rained in the morning
hope for good rain all throught the day

Rajesh said...

Abhijit: An UAC expected to form in Bay by Sat night/Sunday(8th/9th). Can descend to form a low next day, or may travel inland as an UAC.
To follow this, Abhijit, chase and follow the low over Laos and adjoing Thailand today. It may track along the axis.
Track an Easterly wave off the east coast by keepng a check on the trough which may form from this upcoming system.

shitij: we get your views on vagaries FB, but we want them here also.
How is the rain today (Thursday), we expect some rain today also. Surat got good rain last night.
Readers: sset is an regular an has been on the blog comments section for the last 4 years now. I think we should let him express his views freely.His point of view and perspective may be different, but thats his view.

pavan said...

if at all my comments have hurt any person in individual or to rajesh air or Me Sset then i apologoise for the same and i keep my self out of this

pavan said...

f at all my comments have hurt any person in individual or to rajesh sir or Mr Sset then i apologoise for the same and i keep my self out of this

Rajesh said...

Pavan: No, it is not for your comments or anybody in particular.Its just that some comments should not be rude to hurt anyone. After all we are all together and want good good enjoyement from this blog.
Vagaries appreciates and wants your comments regularly. In fact i look forward to comments from Pune..please continue.
I am sorry if you or anybody has taken it personally.

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