Monday, September 10, 2012

BB6 now over Upper Sindh is at 1000 mb. We also see a WD at sea level, also at 1000 mb. With this system (WD) suddenly trooping eastwards in the Northern regions of Pakistan, with a distinct trough southwards from it.

We have a distinct possibility of BB6 getting embedded in the trough by tomorrow (Tuesday). So, a chance of it getting a bit strong on Tuesday. But, by late Tuesday/Wednesday, the WD will pull the rain system along with it North-Eastwards. 

Due to the embedded low in the trough, there will be clouds drawing from the Arabian Sea towards the trough, and then pushing North-Eastwards into Kashmir, HP, Punjab, Haryana, North Rajasthan and Utteranchal by Wednesday.

The low in the bay (which we did not even number) has become an UAC at 850 hpa. I expect it to initially move Westwards for a day, and then merge with the axis. 

Tuesday: Rains showing a definite decrease in Upper Sindh (Pakistan). Karachi may get cloudy weather with drizzles in  some parts. 

Rains in East Rajasthan, MP, Vidarbha and North AP remain moderate due to active monsoon axis.
Konkan light to moderate rains with stations averaging between 20-40 mms.  

Wednesday: As the rains diminish from Sindh, Northern regions of Pakistan including Punjab gets rain. 

Rains push into Northern states of Kashmir, HP, Punjab and Haryana.
Delhi NCR may get some rains from evening/night.
Vidarbha and North AP continue to get rains. Heavy showers possible for Hyderabad.
Konkan rains get weaker.

Thursday: Monsoon axis moves Northwards.

Rains in Punjab,Haryana, Delhi NCR and HP. 
Maharashtra will see isolated local rains in few places. No organised rainfall. 

Nepal gets increasing rainfall from Thursday. Kathmandu may see more rainfall frequency from Thursday.

Thus, we see increasing rains in Delhi NCR on Wednesday evening and Thursday.
Central India, i.e. East Rajasthan, MP, Vidarbha, North AP being along the monsoon axis continue to get rains of heavy to moderate intensity next 2 days.

Mumbai City:
Tuesday/Wednesday: Sunny warm intervals in the day. A few passing showers, in different parts. Day temp will be around 31c. Rain Amount: 10-15 mms.
Thursday: Warm day, with thunder clouds developing by evening. Showers in the evening will total up to 15-20 mms.

Pune: Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday: Cloudy with light drizzles. Rainfall upto 7-10 mms /day.

Surat: Tuesday/Wednesday: cloudy with a few showers adding up to around 10-15 mms.
Thursday: Few showers, a couple of them may be heavy. Slightly more rainfall may be added on Thursday to 20 mms.

Very heavy rainfall figures of Sunday to Monday morning from Sindh (Pakistan):

Tangwani 372mm, Jacobabad 305mm, Kandhkot 282mm, Kashmore 280mm, Sukkur 164mm, Rohri 152mm, Khairpur Mirs 150mm, Kingri 80mm, Talhar 63mm, Kamber 65mm, Tanbobago 60mm, Larkan 58mm, Jhudo 53mm, Nara, Badin & Diplo 50mm each, KotDeji 45mm.

Abdasa (Kutch ) got 140 mms.


Abhijit Modak said...

I think BB6 clouding again will come back to SE lower Sindh area or might be again to NW Arabian Sea off Sindh/Kutch coastal area.. And might be remain strong over Sea till Wednesday..

So in this process Coastal SE Sindh will get rains till Wednesday..

Adjoining Kutch & Saurashtra will get rains till Friday.

And fresh Bay UAC may arrive over Central & Northern Gujarat by Thursday,so fresh rain for Eastern Gujarat..

North Konkan will get occasional rains in intervals till Friday ranging from 20mm to 70mm till Friday.

NT said...

I think BB6 will move ENE with the WD. Also, with the WD coming in the fresh UAC will not travel in West direction but will travel ENE direction

GSB said...

NT , thanks for the Ghoti info.........

pavan said...

a general question to all the readers of this blog i hope this is not to hurt anybody`s emotions,
a station records 1500mm of rainfall in 102 days with deficiency of 535mm rain and another place record 230mm of rain in 102 days with deficiency of 54mm which is more deficient?

Anonymous said...

Hi Pavan,
very valid question, i guess it is easy to infer that even scarcity of 20% in places with low rainfall; the effects are manifold. especially in places in rain shadow area (pune, satara, sangli, sholapur, gadag, koppal, davangere, pambam, ramnad, tuticorn). these areas are more or less under severe water stress. I will further add a dimension to thi squestion is 25 days of 1 cm better than 5 days of 5 cm ? will love to hear your thoughts

Regards, Ananth

Rajesh said...

Abhijit: a slight variation..
NT: I think you remember the WD factor we had spoken about...good recalling !

Pavan: The first city shows a 25 % deficit and the second 20%..
I think i know what you are meaning -:))

Delhi guys: Please keep reporting, Thanks.

Anonymous said...

no rains in delhi bright n sunny

Anonymous said...

karnatak will be desertified , the way things r going with the state , the day is near when karnatak will be called the desert of india, no rains hot summers n cold winters will be the climate of karnataka.

GSB said...

Pavan, in statistics you question is analysed relatively. There is no absolute deficiency in rainfall because no two places get the same quantity time wise. A desert with an annual rainfall of 10mm getting only 6mm is 40% defecient. Whereas a tropical rainforest might get 10000mm anually but get only 8000mm, short by 20%.

The very fact that analysis of any kind is done is that these differences are recognized historically and then extrapolated into the future and then compared with live data. That is what an analyst does. Beyond that it is in the hands of nature (GOD?) or maybe in the future... technology?...

I hope I got your query right ..

Anonymous said...

Now we need to watch the SWM monsoon withdrawal n the NEM setting in, definately N E M is going to be delayed this year, n with el nino being in the picture, its even going to be worse for the N E M.and also the S W M is going to stick around till the end of oct , all this is going to effect the NE M .

GSB said...


What Ananth has asked - " I will further add a dimension to thi squestion is 25 days of 1 cm better than 5 days of 5 cm ?" - is a beautiful statistical conundrum. But the answer is clear at least using ... maths..

Here is a similar problem.. Two songs hit the top ten .. the first stays in the top ten list for 2 weeks at number 1 and 2 , the other stays in the top ten for 11 weeks at number 8. Which song is statistically better?...

Any suggestions/answers? I will give my answer tomorrow..

Abhijit Modak said...

As I said North Konkan will be having occasional spells and rain ranging between 20mm - 70mm.. So atleast on first day North Mumbai/ Thane city & western Thane district have got rain around 40mm till now from 00am of Tuesday starting till now.

svt said...

Surprisingly heavy overnight rains in Dadar. Even now its raining. No one predicted such heavy rains.

junaid said...

@rajesh,,the day has strted wid a heavily overcast and dark sky,,plz tell the forcast for panvel and surrounding areas,,i feel it will rain very heavily thruout the day!

Prasad said...

@rajesh : very heavy rain in akole(ahmadnagar) from 7.30am and still countinuing.from last night their is very thick cloud cover and it's finally raining.

Anonymous said...

@ Abhijit, bb6 will not move to the west or towards lower sindh, but will travel towards E. N.E of india because of the fresh WD merging along with bb6.

Anonymous said...

from tommorow rains will weaken along the west coast

Anonymous said...

delhi will see some rains , today n tommorow

Pavan said...

The deficiency statitics on paper is different than the deficiency felt by the people, i my question station A is mumbai and station B is blore the onpaper deficiency is more in mumbai is nt felt by people but the same deficiency is felt more in blore,
there are two places Dharwad and Raichur in karnataka which almost recorded almost same amount of rain in these 100days of about 300mm which is deficient for both places, but the standard devitation of dharwad was almost negligble when compard to the later place, dharwad recorded on an average of 3mm/day but raichur recorded varied rain from 0mm to 50mm, earlier place has 80day of rain out of 102 and later had 40day out of 102. For commom man deficny is for agri, drinking water and fodder these parameters are never satisfied by our statitics may be by dry drought or by floods

Tyrone said...

On which chart can I see the WD moving in?

Vivek said...

Sorry sir. Didn't report. Delhi is warm and muggy.

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