Thursday, September 13, 2012

Mars Is Earthlike As It Might Look, But Cold to the Bone !!..See Fantastic Pic and Mars Weather write up on Space News Page

Well, my last put up forecast period ended on Thursday. 

I'll start with my most sucessfull region, Kathmandu. The capital recieved very heavy rains from Thursday, amounting to 135 mms in 24 hrs ended Thursday evening. this could be the highest 24 hr rainfall ever for the month of September, i'll check up on that. The month's total with today's rainfall goes upto 299 mms, against a September normal of 200 mms for Kathmandu. Wasn't "rainfall increasing on Thursday" predicted for Kathmandu in vagaries ? -:))
Besides Kathmandu, Pokhra got 51 mms. 
As the axis has shifted towards the foothills, we can expect the heavy rains in the capital to continue thru Friday and Saturday. May not be 135 mms, but ceratinly heavy.

The erstwhile WD has merged in the axis.
The axis has gone away far from the Sindh region of Pakistan. But a stubborn "limping" UAC continues to make the most of the "lingering" moisture around the Sindh/Kutch coastline. Normally a dry region, the persistent moisture present due to favourable winds, have resulted in rainfall continuing in the region. Though very heavy in very small pockets, like Okha getting 240 mms and Dwarka 121 mms, there has been 20-40 mms in other places too. Rainfall in Sindh coast has been much lighter with Karachi getting an average of 20-24 mms of rain Thursday.

What happens on Friday? The Monsoon axis moves further into the hills (Northwards). The UAC over NE MP has moved NE into the axis, and has lost its identity. If the Sindh UAC (in isolation) continues beyond Friday , there will be absolutely no reason in my book to explain why !
Moderate to hevay rains in Northern states of Kashmir, HP (Kangra got 60 mms), Utteranchal (Dehradun 40 mms), Haryana and Delhi NCR (Panchkula got 40 mms).
Delhi NCR got an average of 25 mms, but will continue to get fairly good precipitations Friday. Heavy rains in UP.Very Heavy downpours in Himalayan W.Bengal and Sikkim.
Gujarat coastal Saurashtra rains decreasing.

West coast trough, already weak, will remain so, and Konkan will get weak rainfall Friday. Rest Maharashtra too will have light rains in isolated pockets. 

Mumbai will have sunny/partly cloudy Friday, with a few passing showers, with upto 10 mms of rain till 8.30 am Saturday.

Due to time constraint, Weekend forecast tomorrow...


Neeraj said...

Well, almost certainly the september record has been broken for Kathmandu, Nepal. And, interestingly, it is still raining now ( 12:40 AM, 14 September 2012 Friday). The met site is saying 13 Sept, 2012 has been the rainiest day in sept so far with 126 millimeters falling in 24 hrs (from 12 sept 8:00 A.M. to 13 Sept 2012 8:00 A.M.)

Anonymous said...

from tuesday 19th september onwards, skies will be clear in gujrat rajasthan , delhi, punjab even in maharashtra vidarbh , madhya pradesh.showing clear signs of monsoon withdrawal.

Abhijit Modak said...

Yesterday Badlapur had one medium to heavy spell of rain at afternoon period and then today early morning 3am to 5am period also had an heavy rain spell & rest of period was cloudy & sunny intervals .

So overall Badlapur records 33mms rain in past 24hrs.(i.e from yesterday 8.30am to today 8.30am on 14-09-2012).

Neeraj said...

NT said...

Reports of cloud burst in Uttaranchal and resultant deaths on the TOI portal

Rajesh said...

Neeraj: keep us informed...

NT result of the axis shifting..

Anonymous: We welcome your forecasts and estimates, it helps us too. But, while putting up your forecasts, please mention your name also...its better than remaining anonymous..

emkay said...

Today early morning a mini-cloudburst happened in Panvel area. It tallies with what Abhijit has reported from Badlapur.
It was heavy rain with gale-force winds for a short period !! Woke me at 3 AM.

Abhijit Modak said...

Just now 10mins Heavy downpour with strong Gusty winds from SW direction here in Badlapur.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ emkay. Yes few patches has got the sudden downpour in early morning period.
Some rain data ending today 8.30am on 14-09-2012.

Thane 50mm
Badlapur(own measured) 33mm
Bhiwandi 26mm
Ulhasnagar 18mm
Kalyan 17mm
Panvel 16mm

Rajesh said...

emkay: Panvel's "mini cloudburst" was worth 16 mms..Mumbai city lived upto its estimate with an average (between 2 stations ) of 9 mms.

Anonymous said...

@ rajesh, the heavy rains, are done with mumbai , or are there anymore chances of heavy rains in mumbai.
thanks .prakash.

NT said...

Rajeshbhai, I know it's a bit too soon for this, but what do you think could be the weather on the Ganesh Chaturthi day in Mumbai?

RK said...

Heavy downpour with thunder at G.Noida

Vivek said...

Rajesh sir: as forecast on Vagaries heavy rain in Gurgaon a few hours back.