Tuesday, September 09, 2008

"The weather has changed"--in effect the "sort of " receding monsoon symptoms have stopped at Rajasthan. The winds have re-grouped, as mentioned in the previous blog, to form a low in the bay. The widhdrawal phase, fortunately has been postponed.
The low in the bay, off the Orissa coast, as on the evening of 9th., supplimented with a "low"circulation over Maharashtra, has literally pulled the monsoon axis to the 22N level, and normal easterlies have resumed over the region north of the trough, that is over U.P., M.P. and nort-west India.
The bay low and the Maharashtra low have produced widespread rains over all of Maharashtra, south Gujarat regions north Karnataka and A.P.
Now, predictions show that: 1. The bay low will move inland and travel along the monsoon trough, till, say in one day,before it merges with the low over Mahrashtra. Result: Heavy rains all over Maharashtra, M.P., A.P. Karnataka, and south Gujarat on the 9th.,10th.
2. The system is expected to move north-west, and cross into the Arabian Sea and move towards the Sindh coast, before fizzling out. Result: Rains and strong winds off north Maharashtra /south Gujarat coast on the 11th. Good rains in south Gujarat and Saurashtra regions on the 10/11th.
3. Rains subsequently can move towards the sindh coast by the 11th. and decline as the system fizzles out there.
4. We may yet see the other depression forecast by the ECMRWF by the 15th of this month.
The current change may prove to be a boon for the deficit regions of Marathwada and the mid September rains will boost the water table in the dry regions of Gujarat.

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