Thursday, July 24, 2008

The western coast of India has got some revived rains today,Thursady. Mumbai had 65mm during the day, and many stations along the coast 30-50mms. The off shore trough, a result of the monsoon trough surely shifting southwards, is the cause of this revival.
Another sign of the trough going southwards is the decrease in rains in the foothills ,and a rise in temperatures in north India.(Gangapur was 42c today).
Rains in northern Pakistan too will lessen and as the trough's western end moves down, some rains may come to central regions. For the south of Pakistan, the rains will arrive with the westerly movement of the bay low, or a sudden dip in the western end of the monsoon trough.
Now, as per our last assessment, the next stage should be the immediate formation of a low in the bay. IMD has estimaed this to form by the 27th. Once this is in place, the complete central region and northern peninsula states should get good rainfall. Yesterday, a heartening feature was a solid 102mm of rain in "rain starved " Solapur.

The rain map as on 23rd.July defines the "north/south" divide mentioned earliar. The diagonal line division of the excess/normal/deficient regions is clear in the map. The overall rain in the country has now slipped into the negative, -2 %.
It is now hoped the deficient areas get some rain with the current wave of rain coming.


Anonymous said...

What is your take on Rains in Mumbai in the coming days especially with the Low moving inland? Typical heavy Mumbai Downpour?

Rajesh said...

ya, rains in mumbai finally with the trough moving down. should be around 50-60mms on the weekend. monday/tuesday can be heavy.

shiraz satarawala said...

Dear Rajesh
Heavy monsoon rains thrashing Mahabaleshwar. Regards, Shiraz

Anonymous said...

Mumbai is reeling under heavy rains since Thursday - today it's very windy and sheets of pouring rain. What a revival in Monsoon.

shiraz satarawala said...

Mahabaleshwar recorded 162.9 mm rain in 24 hrs ending 8.30 am to-day 28th July Seasonal total stands at 2151

  Monsoon Watch -2 ...2024....21st April. 1.Mascrene Highs ... This is a series of Very High Pressure areas. The power house of the S.W. Mon...