Saturday, December 06, 2008

The heat is certainly being felt in Mumbai ! Much against expectations and forecasts, a heat wave has spraed along the coast of Maharashtra and Gujarat. The IMD map of the maximum temperatures on the 5th. clearly indiactes the "red" regions of extreme heat! It is December, and the maximum day temperatures along the coast of Maharashtra and all of Gujarat is around 35-36c, much above the normal!
The highest at Mumbai on the 5th. was the highest in Asia too, at 37.7c. Incidently, this is the highest ever recorded at Santa Cruz in December!In Asia, Makkah was next at 37c!The list shows the top hottest places in Asia on the 5th.

Mumbai / Santacruz Airport (India) 38°

Makkah (Saudi Arabia) 37°

Goa / Panjim Airport (India) 36°

Surat (India) 36°

Rajkot (India) 36°

Ratnagiri (India) 36.

On the 5th,Mumbai Colaba was 36.4c, and the highest everfor December at Colaba was only marginally higher at 36.6c.
This heat has belied all forecasts by any model or forecasting module.

Meanwhile, the deep depression in the bay was today,6th, at 450kms east of Sri Lanka.At this time,a north-westward drift with some northward component is indicated.Some GFS models, however, seems to "loose" 07B as if it were dissipating the system.
I feel,the system is expected to cross the coast of T.N. and Puducherry, just skirting the Lanka coast.Very heavy rains are expecetd in the next 2/3 days.
The system, with a core pressure at 996mb, has been numbered at 07B, and as it moves inland, heavy rains are forecasted for T.N. and Kerala.Inland,the system will be heading towards Cochin.Hence, rains will be restricted to T.N. and Kerala.

But,Sri Lanka is getting very heavy raiansince the 4th.due to 07B.The intensity of this rainfall is unusual for Sri Lanka at this time of year. Heavy rain is normally associated with the S.W. Monsoon, which runs from June until October, often leading to widespread floods. From December through February the country experiences drier weather, with clear skies and little rain

As mentioned in the last blog, the approaching W.D. is expected over north India by the 6th. and pulling of moisture and rain clouds is possible from the Arabian Sea. Hence, some rain on the 7th. can be expected in Rajasthan and parts of western Saurshtra and Kutch.Nothern plains will get their winter rains from the 6th. for a couple of days.

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