Thanks to the "break monsoon" conditions, the latest rainfall figures provided by IMD show the overall surplus down to +4% only. As mentoined last week, the surplus was +11%, but several areas have now gone into the "deficit" areas as seen in this colour map from IMD.

Still, the positive side is that there are some heavy convection thundershowers due to excessive heating in pockets all over the plains of India. Heavy short thundershowers occur ,like 61mm at Aurangabed,due to local convections,and are not any organised system.

Mumbai can get a thundershower in some areas, due to local heating, on some days till the first week of Aug. Regular monsoon rain (from the southwest) are expected only after the 3rd.

Due to a W.D. (a bit unusual for a moderate one now), some good rain occured in N.Pakistan and hills of Kashmir and H.P. However, the "break " continues till 3rd. ,when a system is forecasted to form in the bay, that is a" low."

Next week will show the expected results of the monsoon revival, if it is to happen.