Saturday, September 09, 2006

The monsoon may show signs of widhrawing from the extreme west of Rajasthan, maybe from Monday 11th Sept. Signs of withdrawal means the formation of a high pressure area which will bring dry air down (in a low pressure air rises up). This is delayed as the last persisting low had left moisture in the region (see picture). In fact, even today, there was rain across in Pakistan in Chor, Karachi and Jacobabad and in scattered places in Rajasthan (Bikaner had 30mm). The seasonal high will not settle until the moisture rains out, and may take two days as the days are getting hot.

The rain over India as a whole is exactly normal. But we still have September rains to change the figures. Except the north east, the rain is excess or normal elsewhere. See map.

A new low is expected to form in the bay around Monday near the TamilNadu coast. But if there is stressed moisture inland, it may not move too much.

Jim Andrews mentioned about the unexpected longevity and capacity of the previous low. It surely beat all forecasters, but all good meteorologists expect the weather to beat them sometimes. As an expert only studies the weather, not control it. So Jim, man proposes, God disposes!

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