International Weather Events Summary for 2012. ...on International Page of this Blog

What happens in January and why in December has the NEM remained Weak and WD somewhat Active ?

To prepare an answer to this, I will link up the ENSO situation first.
The ENSO situation remains neutral - neither El Niño nor La Niña. The past 30-45 days have remained and showed a neutral situation.
The SOI, has also shown neutral trends, with the current reading at -6.5.
A negative SOI trend generally shows weaker NEM pulses. The general trend is that SOI will remain negative, or maybe drop a few points more towards the negative next 15 days.

The Westerlies at 850 hp, have gained in the Southern region below India, and are seen pushing westwards into Sri Lanka since the last 15 days.("A" in Diagram) The MJO has remained weak as a result. The consequence was that it has forcefully resisted and blocked the developmemts of any meaningfull systems in the Bay and even any coming from the East. MJO now shows signs of strengthening in the Southern Hemisphere  in the Australian (North) regions.( "C" in Diagram) .
The active MJO in the SE Asian regions moves more to the East into the Indonesia regions next 15 days.
 A weak MJO envelops the Bay ("D" in Diagram)..
That means, the trough shifts further southwards towards the Australian continent. The Australian region may see more cyclones next 30-45 days, at least 2/3 major ones.

That will hasten up and withdraw the NEM in the next 8-10 days.

Now, if there is no meaningful activity in the Bay, gives a free hand to the WDs up North. The Eastward bound systems are "allowed" to move thru Northern India and need not get pushed up towards the extreme North.
The 200 hp jet streams are getting pushed more to the North, and will prevail above the 30N line areas ("B" in Diagram).

Seeing the situation next 30 days, I would expect around 3 major and 3 minor WDs in January to cross the Northern regions of the Sub-Continent.

A severe cold wave has been sweeping the Northern regions, specially the plains, from 30th December.
Some extreme lows recently recorded :

30th Dec 2012; Amritsar max temp: 9.4c...Sri Ganganagar 0.6C

31st December Lucknow AP: 0.7c...

1st Jan 2013: Hindon: 0.6c,  Churu and Narnaul: 0.7c,  Agra: 0.9c....Delhi 4c, 

2nd Jan:  Muzzafarnagar : 0.6c...Bareilly  0.9c, Aligarh 1.2c, 

Lowest Day Temperature was at Hindon at 8.4c and Sri Ganganagar   8.6c
Max on 2nd at Palam 9.7c and Sjung 9.8c. In 1973 Dec, Delhi had a max at 9c...

Across the border in the plains of Pakistan, 

1st Jan: Sibbi -1.5c, Nokkundi  0c, Mithi 1.0c, 

2nd Jan: Sibbi  -2.0c..., Gawadar  7c, Karachi 8.0c. 



Results of contest put up as on end Dec..
Jan entries open till 15th Jan..please note for jan no rainfall for Vhennai and Bangalore , BUT minimum temperatures for CHENNAI CITY and Bangalore to be included....

wishing all readers a Happy and Prosperous New Year.
Thanks for the support and encouragement...your support keeps the blog moving

Severe. cold moving in from the west as temperatures fall in Pakistan.
Karachi saw a low of 8c on Saturday and 8.5c on Sunday. Hyderabad (Sindh)dipped to 7c and in the plains, Nokkundi froze at -5.5c,  Sibbi froze at -4.5c on Sunday morning.
 Could expect the wave to spread into Rajasthan and adjoining regions of Haryana and Delhi...
lows below 5c expected...
Amritsar had the coldest day in the plains on Sunday with the day rising to only 9.4c....


Surat has shown a declining trend last two days, and confirmed with our forecast. Shitij mentions of some clouding on Sunday, and has put up a pic conforming this in fb.

readers mention of some rainfall in N.I. Karnataka and S.Maharashtra. some confirmations show rainfall between 5-10 mms.

though the supporting system has weakened, I expect some more clouding over Pune .

Lucknow reading shown in Imd is 0,7c on Sunday morning. not too convincing to me, and shall confirm on my return...

clouding to increase over Mumbai Monday.

Surat has dropped to around 30c and low to 14c, and will remain so till 31st as mentioned.

New Delhi South winds started today and expect the day to rise.

chennai has got 22 mms and 10 mms at the two stations, so as per vagaries standard, the average rain till Saturday morning is 16 mms.

A favourable CAPE shows signs of moving along with the trough line, Northwards thru Karnataka and Southern Mah.

On. Friday, the days were cooler on the mainland India, and the Lakshdweep Island city of Amini Divi was highest at 34.8c....coolest day in Asia was at Oymyakon at -48c....just for information..

The UAC mentioned earlier in the South, is set to enter TN on schedule by 28th. From this upper air system, already embedded in the trough, rains along the TN coast can be expected next 2 days from Friday.

 

Chennai can get some showers, with gusty winds from the NE. Friday,Saturday,Sunday, i would expect cumulative of around 25 mms in Chenai.

as I expect the system to now move N/NW. Somewhat along the coast. maybe upto Bengal by the 31st...but this to be observed.

AS this moves, rainfall mov along interior Karnataka and into S. Mah by the 30th.

N.I. Karnataka can get showers on the 29th,and Bangalore a day earlier, as mentioned before.

Mumbai and Pune change from the 29th till 31st, as SW winds dominate and bring in moisture and clouds.

Mumbai gets warm and stuffy, and partly cloudy, last 3/4days of 2012,and we may even see the night temperature rising to 20/21c at Scruz. Unstable atmosphere on the 29/30/21st for Mumbai.

Pune gets partly cloudy with some rain around the 30/31st and nights rising to 15c from the morning of 29th.  Maybe a drizzly New Years Eve !

D-5 is scheduled to move away from the subcontinent by Friday evening. Decrease in fog and rise in day temperatures from Friday for the plains of Punjab and Haryana.

patchy fog in Delhi NCR next 2 days. however, I see no major fall in night temperatures for Delhi NCR in the rear of the WD. Night minimum temperatures will be around 6/7c on Friday and Saturday morning.

From  Saturday, south winds will bring the days upto the 23c  and nights from Sunday morning  

will be around 10/11c  till New Year.

Kolkata recorded a low of 10c on Thursday. The lowest in last few years, though far from the records low.  Northerly winds continue in Kolkata till 30th, that is 2 more days. we see a bit easing of temperatures from 30th, as NW winds dominate.

As estimated, Surat wil see a slight fall in temperatures next few days. days will be dropping by a couple of degrees.

However some clouding around 31st will spoil the good weather.

Plains  of Nepal were cold, with Birendranagar recording a low of 2c and Khatmandu continued to shiver at 1.5c on Thursday morning...with continuing of near zero temperatures next 3 days.

Northern Cold

Much of the Northern plains of India have had extremely cold days on 25th of this month.

Thickly covered with fog, there was a total absence of sunlight

.A high pressure zone has settled over the region in the upper levels. By Thursday, the clock wise winds (high pressure in upper region) will turn anti clockwise (low in the upper air)

The cold days on 25th.

Kurukshetra 9.2c (Incidently, even Chamba was 9.2c in the day on 25th)

Karnal 9.5c (-12). the minimum was 8c.

Aligarh 10.8c (-10)

ambala 11c (-10),

Chandigarh 11.1c (-10)

Patiala 12c (-8)

Barelli 12c (-10)

Agra 13c (-10) minimum 4.6c

Palam 15.4c

Allahbad 15.5c(-9) minimum 4.9c

Gaya 13.9c (-10)

the lowest night temperature reached 1c at Narnaul.