Monday's Highest temperatures in Asia were very closely contested, and were seperated by few points from the other:
The Hottest days on Monday, 11th June, were in :
Joba (Oman) 47.0c, Abadan (Iran) 46.6c, Makkah (S.Arabia) 46.4c, Allahbad (India) 46.2c, Sibi (Pakistan) 45.0c.

Coming back to the trough off the West Coast, it has an embedded UAC at 700 hpa in it,which on Monday, 11th, was off the Mah coast. 

From weather patterns, it seems the UAC, at 700 hpa, will just shift a bit towards the coast on Tuesday, before returning to the off shore position away from the west coast,somewhere off Goa coast by Wednesday, 13th.

Rainfall wise, i do not really see any meaningfull increase due to this shift on Tuesday. A very nominal rainfall increase would be measured in some places of the interiors East of Mumbai along the Ghats on Tuesday. 

Wednesday would again mean a decrease in rain intensity all along the Konkan belt. 

As the trough would remain "mediocre" i would not vouch for any substantial increase in rains along Konkan till Friday, 15th. 

Interior Mah: South Madhya Mah. would get 2-4 cms of rain on Tuesday, while Marathwada would recieve thundershowers, heavy in some places on Wednesday and Thursday due to heat convection. 

Would not recommend advance of Monsoon into the regions at this stage.

Mumbai: 

Tuesday: 32-27c. Windy and Partly Cloudy to cloudy by afternoon. 50% chances of light to medium showers in some parts of the city. Rain amount expected 7-10 mms.

Wednesday: 33-26c. Partly cloudy and warm. A few passing showers in some parts. Rain amount expected  upto 5 mms.

Thursday: 34-28c. Partly cloudy to sunny. Hot day. Rain amount expected <5 mms.

Pune : 

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with thunder in the evening. Some rainfall in some areas upto 10 mms expected by night.

Wednesday/Thursday: Partly cloudy with llight passing drizzles in some parts.

Central Interior regions of Saurashtra would get some rainfall, light to medium, in a few spread out pockets till wednesday. 

Surat possibly could get a shower on Tuesday, with decrease in rainfall from Wednesday. 

Bharuch, cloudy with a few light showers on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Local heat would create a vortex in interior AP on Wednesday. If the heat is extensive, I would expect the vortex to be pulled in from the trough along the East Coast, to bring about heavy rains in Hyderabad on Wed/Thursday.

Light rainfall in spread out pockets in S.I.Karnataka next few days. Very heavy rainfall due to the off trough strength expected along Coastal Karnataka from Wednesday. 

Today is the 11th of June, and normally it is expected that the SWM would have covered 50% of India. The regions ander cover should include the States of Mah, AP and Orissa, and the complete NE and Eastern WB including Kolkata and all should be under the bountiful rains of the Monsoon by now.
But in reality, a very small area is covered by the SWM this year, The Map on the Current Page shows the actual coverage as on date, and roughly would work out to, say, 25-30 % ?? 

A very weak low has formed off the Orissa coast, weak because of irregular formation, even though it is at 996 mb. A trough runs from the low along the East coast of India upto Chennai.


This has brought the SWM into the South Konkan belt, interior Karnataka and TN today (Sunday). See Monsoon advance map on Current Weather Page.


As forecasted, the low has brought some rainfall  along the AP coast, with Kakinada measuring 31 mms and Ramagundam in Telengana region recieving 57 mms. (24 hrs Upto 5.30pm).


Rainfall will increase in AP coastal and Telengana regions for a day on Monday. Will provide the much needed relief from the heat. Expect the low to fizzle out and merge with the trough by Monday night.


Rentachintala was the highest on Sunday at 45.2c. Nearby, Orissa still sizzles today with Bhubaneshwar soaring to 44.1c today (Sunday).


As mentioned in Vagaries 2 days ago, Delhi was forecasted to soon touch the 40s again, and the capital again soared to 41.8c on Sunday. Neighbouring Agra saw 43.5c today.


Across the border too, the Sindh/Balochistan desert region was expected to cross the 45c mark today (as shown in the map), with Sukkur and Sibbi touching 46c today.


Mumbai received some showers on Sunday, with S'Cruz and Colaba measuring 10 mms till 8.30pm. (Vagaries forecast was 7-10 mms). Though vagaries measured 18 mms (at Mahalaxmi, South Mumbai, till 10 pm).
(Mumbai day rainfall, recorded at Vagaries, is periodically updated during the day on "Mumbai Readings@ Vagaries Station" Page). 


Vagaries is in no hurry to announce the advance of the SWM into Mumbai. Merely SW winds and a days 10 mms rain is not enough to announce the Monsoon. Other parameters have to concur as explained in the "comments" section.
City will recieve around 5-10 mms (modified from <5 mms put yesterday) of rain on Monday.
Tuesday will see less rain as forecasted.


Pune was warm partly cloudy with light passing rains in the afternoon. No change in Pune forecast for next 2 days.


South Konkan stations will get around 5-7 cms of Monsoon rains on Monday.

A Low may form off the Orissa /AP coast by Sunday, 10th June, and move swiftly inland to fizzle out in 24 hrs.
This may result in some rather heavy rainfall in the coastal regions of AP , mainly South of Vizag on Monday.


Meanwhile, this low will whip up some anti clock-wise winds and resultantly, bring strong Westerlies to the TN region. Critically located is Chennai for strongish west winds, which may bring in a sharp rise in the day temperature in Chennai to 40c on Monday/Tuesday.

Sunday 10th.>

Monday 11th>

Tuesday 12th>

The SWM will be pulled up on the Eastern coast covering TN and AP, and to some extent interior Karnataka by Monday, 11th June.


On the West Coast, the SWM could possibly pull up into South Konkan on Monday, 11th, where rainfall will be upto 5-7 cms in some stations. 


I see moisture "drying up" from Monday in the western areas of interior Mah (Pune, Panvel, and the Lonavala, Matheran and Mahableshwar regions), with possible decrease in rainfall Monday/Tuesday.
The gradient along the western front has reduced, and as the pressure rises, the off shore trough weakens.


Mumbai: Some towering cumulus clouds were seen in the Eastern and Northern skies of Mumbai on Saturday.

Sunday: Partly cloudy warm day. Towering clouds on the eastern skies could bring showers in some parts. Rainfall amount upto 7 mms. 
Panvel could have a shower or two.

Monday: Partly cloudy and hot. Light rains in some parts. Rain amounts <5 mms. 
Panvel will be warm and cloudy, more sunny than Sunday. Brief passing shower.

Tuesday: More sunny to partly cloudy with hot day. Only light drizzle possible in some parts. 
Panvel could only have a light passsing shower.


Pune : Sunday/Monday/Tuesday: Cloudy, with sunny intervals. Days will be warm (35/36c) and stuffy. Brief passing light showers in some parts. 

The hot weather on the Eastern Coast continues on Friday with Rentachintala being the hottest in India at 45.6c. Followed by Allahbad (UP) at 44.8c. 
Again, Kakinada in AP follows with 44.4c and Machilipatnam was 43.7c.


New Delhi remained at 39.3c. Nagpur was at the "nominal" 41.8c. Expecting a rise soon.


In Pakistan the J-1 (WD) has "softened" temperatures to some extent. Still active there. Islamabad measured 15 mms and Lahore 10 mms of rain. the hottest in Pakistan (Friday) was Sukkur and Dadu at 43c. Dal Bandin, Jacobabd and Nawabshah were at on Friday at 42.0c. Many shades lower than the 50c of a few days back.


But, this has weakened the Monsoon trough along the west coast. Though it had stretched from S.Konkan to Kerala, it has become feeble today.


No change in SWM advance map today.


Noticed the pressure going the other way in Mumbai today..Check on Mumbai Readings @ Vagaries Page and See Mumbai Page for Lakes Position.

In today's (Friday, 8th June)Times of India (Mumbai) we read that the IMD says "the SWM did not advance on Thursday as expected."
Personally, I had not expected the monsoon to advance on Thursday. In the Vagaries' Monsoon advance forecast map put up on the 6th, I had estimated the movement into South Konkan by the 8th.


Reason: The WD moving across North India. Readers have surely noticed the WD clouding throughout Northern India on Thursday, with good amounts of "cooling" rains in the region. 


Termed by the press as pre monsoon, whatever, it has cooled down the entire region from oprressive heat.
Delhi received 12 mms the previous day and many stations in baked Rajasthan received upto 10 mms of rain including Jaisalmer and Pokhran. Haryana and Kashmir too recieved rainfall ranging from 10-15 mms. Though Chandigarh did not recieve rains, the day temperature fell below 40c to reach 39c.
In HP, Manali cooled down to 15c in the day, 12c below the normal !
Rainfall decreasing from today in the North, with Delhi seeing clearer skies after a cloudy day on Thursday. Thursday's high was 38c, but should rise from Friday.


Today's charts show the WD moving away towards the NE. Resistance to the monsoon having gone, the monsoon can move into S.Konkan and further into TN, Karnataka and parts of South AP tomorrow. 
It may move into Sikkim and cover WB also(including Kolkata) by the 10th, as the appraoching current in the Bay is strong.


South Konkan will have 70% chances of coverage with thunder showers on Friday afternoon/evening.
Mumbai has a 70% chance of thunder showers on Friday. (See Vagaries nomenclature for explanations).


Shitij reports of pre monsoon showers from Surat. Several pockest of Mumbai are getting light showers too. Vagaries recorded 1.2 mms till 8.30 am Friday.

Which are the Hottest Places on Earth ?? Rectified Now for easier viewing ..See interesting Video on International Page...
Mumbai Page now shows the Lakes Storage Position of 2011 an2012 comparatively. This will be updated till the Monsoon season is over.


SWM advances into Coastal Karnataka, and Goa. With Goa getting a substantial 72 mms today, it has managed 3 consecutive days of rainfall over the minimal 5 mms. SW winds and OLR within 200 norm with wind depth justifies the advance. 

A couple of days back, when Vagaries voiced concern over the "not-s-cool" Somali waters, there was lack of clouding in the Arabian Sea. Subsequently, we saw a surge of the SW winds coming into the Sea and formation of the Monsoon clouds developed rapidly.


Today, while discussing with Ashokbhai , we observed the monsoon winds from the Somali coast getting slightly diverted to some extent, into Saurashtra and Kutch region. By diverted, I mean, a portion of the "cool" winds which are supposed to form Mass Monsoon Clouds in the warm Central Arabian Sea, are shedding their usefull energies elsewhere.


Next 2 days the Monsoon may advance into South Konkan, say by 8th June, and as estimated earlier, Mumbai will get the Monsoon advancing by the 12th/13th of June.
Interior Mah will need to wait for the SWM. (See map Below, rough estimate of SWM given as indications).


Amit, I think Vid and Nagpur will have to wait till at least the 16th of June. With the MJO phase getting weak, it has been mentioned previously in Vagaries of the Monsoon advancing into Vid later than 17th June.(See estimated further advance map). 
Nagpur will actually heat up again around 12th/13th June to 45c. Local and convectional Thundersqualls could be expected around those days.


For Bangladesh, rest of this week heavy rainfall will be restricted to the mainly Northern Regions adjoining Meghalaya. 
Monsoon could cover the full nation around the 15th of June.

Check Current Weather Page and Mumbai Readings @ Vagaries'.

A day beyond the original forecasted date of 3rd/4th June (by Vagaries in MW), With good rainfall for the 3rd day running, and favourable factors like OLR and depth of SW winds, the SouthWest Monsoon Moves into Kerala on the 5th. Check SWM advance Map on Current Weather Page. 


Amongst the rainfall in the State today: Ernakulam 67 mms, Kozhikode 58.6mms, Hosdurg 52mms, Vadakara 49 mms, Kudulu 47.4 mms, Quilandy 41.2 mms and Kannur 38.7 mms.
In the Western Ghats of Karnataka, Agumbe recieved 97 mms of rain. In coastal Karnataka, Karwar measured 63 mms and Mangalore 62 mms and Honavar 39 mms. Interiors were mainly devoid of rainfall. More to the North, Panjim Goa notched up 73 mms.


As a result, with more rains next 24 hrs, Monsoon can move into Coastal Karnataka by 6th night. 
Further push into Goa and South Konkan by the 8th, and Mumbai will get the Monsoon onset by the 12th/13th of June. Subsequently, SWM may stall beyond 20N (around Dahanu).


A weak MJO phase is forecasted in our seas from the 16th of June. Normally, a weak phase is expected to last between 14-21 days. 
Studying this event, and an anticipitated unfavourable OLR after 17th June, it seems the SWM will remain as a weak current in the regions where it has set in, and go into a "weaker" phase after the 16th of June. 


I do not foresee the SWM advancing beyond S.Gujarat Coast till the 20th at least. Further advance into MP and Gujarat Saurashtra can be after the 29th of June. 
Delhi could expect the SWM around the 30th June. 


Impetus into Pakistan Sindh region will be in the 1st week of July, with Karachi getting the pre monsoon showers in 1st week of July.


With the Bay almost silent, Southern Regions of Bangladesh may see a sudden slack in rains, and only the Northern most parts will get showers this week.


First hand reports of pre monsoon showers today (Tuesday Daytime) have been coming in from Mahableshwar, Ratnagiri, Goa, Kolhapur and Chiplun. A very hot and stuffy(record breaking)night for Mah. tonite (Tuesday nite).


Mumbai will get its pre-monsoon showers on Wednesday afternoon/evening. Rain amount could be around 7-10 mms. Day will be warm and humid at 35c with the minimum on Wednesday morning at 30c. (I have mentioned earlier, though there are no records fo highest minimums available, my records show 30c as the highest minimum ever for Mumbai). 


Panvel also may recieve its much needed relief showers on Wednesday afternoon. With gusty winds, i expect a heavy shower in some areas. Minimum in Panvel on Wednesday night will be 26c.


Pune too will get thundershowers by afternoon, and could measure upto 20 mms of rain.


Orissa was HOT today!
Bhubaneshwar has set an absolute record on Tuesday, 5th June 2012, by recording 46.7c. Its an all time high for the capital of Orissa, the previous being 46.5c in 1972 (22 May). Balasore reached 46.0c. 
In neighbouring AP. Gannavaram was 46.1c.

Its Un Believable ! 
Yesterday I slogged thru  the weather details, and drew the conclusion, after a lot of effort, that the main reason for the dull pace of the SWM is the SST off the Somali Coast. 



Now, today, I see the SST off the Somali coast dropping. Check this SST of today, and see the "Green" patch off the Somali coast. It was absent till yesterday ! The SST is now in the 20c region. And the Upper regions off the Somali coast which were in the above normal colour yesterday, is now in the below normal range !

Winds are now gushing at 30 knts in the Central Arabian Sea, and are clocking 45 knts and above off the Somali coast. A sure and very clear sign of the SST indicating a fall. 


The SST off the Somali coast falls to 20-22c because the winds are very strong in the region, and actually "wipe" the warm waters away, cooling the seas in the region.


Ok, I had mentioned it could fall in a couple of days, but SST dropping in a day is very rare indeed. 
Please compare the SST images of yesterday and today, and see the difference in a day....It is really a great feeling having hit "the nail on the head".


In the Arabian Sea, The mass monsoon clouding, though improving today, is still not satisfactorily developed. It may push in a weakish monsoon into Kerala by tomorrow, Tuesday.


This, I clarify, as the state had the 3rd day of moderate rainfall. Enamakkal 4, Vadakara 3,Karipur Ap. 3,Piravam 3, Quilandi 2,Vaikom 2, Taliparamba 2, Angadipuram 2..in cms. And the Lakshdweep had heavy rainfall, with Amini getting 110 mms and Agathi measuring 70 mms.


Pre Monsoon showers have started moving into Coastal Karnataka and Konkan. Devgad in S.Konkan recieved 5 cms today (pre monsoon).This, would be in line with the Vagaries' forecast.


SWM can advance into Coastal Karnataka by Wednesday.


Pre Monsoon Thundershowers in Pune, Lonavala and Mahableshwar from Tuesday. 
Mumbai will get its thundershowers on Wednesday. 


After Vagaries advanced the SWM into Meghalaya, Assam and some NE states (see Monsoon advance map on Current Weather Page), there has been very heavy monsoon rains in the region. The chief amounts of rainfall in 24 hrs were:
Cherrapunji had very heavy rains of 396 mms. The Hill Station had another 50 mms till 5.30pm on Monday (today).(Akshay sends a pic from Cherrapunji taken today at 4.30pm. on Inter Active Page). 
The other stations in cms: Aie N H Xing 22, Beki-Mathanguri 18, Barpeta  18, Beki Rd. Bridge 15, Kokrajhar 14, Bongaigaon  12, Guwahati A/P 11, Gossaigaon 10, Jowai  9, Manas N H Xing 9.



Does any reader remember something about Vagaries (in its MW) mention something about a weak MJO sometime in early June ?? Any early effect on the Monsoon ? Will it keep the monsoon weak or will it pour out "all the way"? Delay in further prgress into N.India and Pakistan ?
Please read thru the old MW and keep yourself abreast. Vagaries will discuss more about it tomorrow.

Latest Mumbai (South) readings (including local rainfall)  from vagaries weather instruments available on "Mumbai Readings Vagaries Station" Page