Monsoon withdrawal from Mumbai, Pune and north Konkan delayed till 20th October...now seems final.

However, a cyclonic circulation in the Arabian Sea is likely to push moisture northwards towards north Konkan and up to south Gujarat on 16th/17th/18th October. 

Mumbai, Navi Mumbai, Thane also have a chance to witness rain/thundershowers on 17th/18th. Monsoon will be over after 20th.

Monsoon was on track to withdraw from Mumbai and neighbouring regions by 17th/18th.  (Weather vagaries and Nature is forcing us to make frequent changes😡)

Pune city and outskirts can also receive thundershowers on 17th/18th.

Thunder Showers in Ghats of Nashik/Ahmednagar/Pune districts on Monday 17th and Tuesday 18th October. 

Marathwada areas of Aurangabad, Jalna, Beed, Nanded, Latur could receive rain/thundershowers in parts from Sunday 16th to Tuesday 18th October. 

Parts of Vidarbha (Akola, Amravati) districts can also get some rain from 16th-18th October. 

Along with a trough like feature in easterlies at 850 hPa, this can trigger rain/thundershowers across parts of South Gujarat (Valsad/Navsari, although chance is less). 

Forecasted surface winds and Relative Humidity for 17th

Forecasted 850 hPa winds and Relative Humidity for 17th

Yellow dashed line separates dry air and moist air regions.

After SW Monsoon withdrawal from North Konkan, entire North Madhya Maharashtra, Vidarbha and Marathwada, dry easterlies (and October heat for Konkan) could set in from 20th/21st October.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEM..

Bay of Bengal  witness frequent cyclonic circulations as  easterly Waves, normally anytime after 15th October. This is precursor of onset of Northeast Monsoon.

We expect a Low to emerge in the Bay around 17th...and feel North East Monsoon will resultantly set in around 21st...Simultaneous to SWM withdrawal.

14th Evening Thundershowers in Pune & Mumbai till 10.30 pm in mms

Mumbai

Vikhroli 61

Dadar 56 ..(vag.salil)

Marol 49

SantaCruz 46

Versova 43

Goregaon 42

Kurla 41

Mahalaxmi 15

Colaba 10

Vag.Vineet infirms us...For fourth staright year, Pune October rain are above normal

13th October 2022

Monsoon Season withdrawal delayed in Maharashtra. Now, finally rain strentgh slowing down for

Mumbai & Pune

" Rains gradually reducing by 15th. 

South West Monsoon completely over by 17/18thOctober in Mumbai.

19th October Monsoon over in Pune."

For North Madhya Maharashtra & North Marathwada The monsoon season will be over by 15th October. ( Also East M.P.).

Water Storage Positions:

Maharashtra State. At 90.77% of its full capacity of 40,779,220 million litres, compared to 88.00% at the same time last year. The state has 141 major dams and 3267 dams and irrigation 77.2projects in all.

Mumbai 98.56%

Combined live storage across all lakes compared to 98.77% same time last year. 

पुणे / Pune Region. At 92.66% of its full capacity of 15,211,400 million litres, compared to 88.00% at the same time last year

Aurangabad District at 88% as compared to same, 88% last year.

पैठण / Jayakwadi Dam - Paithan, Aurangabad. At 99.95% of its full capacity of 2,170,930 million litres, compared to 99.00% at the same time last year.

Konkan at 92 % as compared to 95% last year. 

And before NEM sets on, Chennai 

• 57.45%
  Combined live storage across all lakes compared to 81.11% same time last year. 191,253 million litres - current storage.
• 830 million litres
  Daily water needs of the city. Water from the lakes is supplied to the city by the Chennai Metropolis

10th October 

The trough mentioned below yesterday has formed as per IMD 10th Morning Bulletin 

Posted 9th October 9:30 pm...

FAQ Reg:Gujarat Circulation

Weak circulation seen over Saurashtra region (see image on the right) is from the cyclonic circulation which was present near north konkan 2 days back. 

This is bringing moisture from Arabian Sea and heavy unseasonal rains over parts of Saurashtra (Junagadh region). 

It can persist weakly, and a upper air trough may form over Gujarat thru South Rajasthan. Hence chance of patchy rain and thundershowers remains till Wednesday 12th October. 

Gujarat region of Ahmedabad/Gandhinagar, Vadodara, Bharuch may see some cloudiness with chance of light rain in some areas during this time. 

Dry weather expected after 12th October with SW Monsoon withdrawal from south Gujarat regions. 

9th October 

Rainfall as on 9th from BB14 remants and interaction with WD

Rainfall (in cm):

 East Rajasthan: Sewarbundh (dist Bharatpur) 23, Kotkasim SR (dist Alwar) 21, Dausa (dist 

Dausa) 18, Bharatpur Tehsil SR (dist Bharatpur) 18, Kishngarhwas (dist Alwar) 17, Sikrai & 

Baswa (dist Dausa) 16, Viratnagar (dist Jaipur) 15, Govindgarh (dist Alwar) 15, Nagar (dist 

Bharatpur) 14;

 West Uttar Pradesh: Chandausi (dist Sambhal) 19, Baheri (dist Bareilly) 16, Aligarh (dist 

Aligarh) 16, Narora (dist Bulandshahar) 14, Etah (dist Etah) 13, Sahaswan (dist Badaun) 12, 

Sadabad (dist Hathras) 12, Kasganj (dist Kasganj) 11, Moradabad Cwc (dist Moradabad) 11, 

Milak (dist Rampur) 11, Shahjahanpur (T) (dist Shahjahanpur) 11, Bareilly Cwc (dist Bareilly)

11, Sambhal (dist Sambhal) 10, Bareilly Pbo (dist Bareilly) 10, Moradabad (dist Moradabad)

10, Budaun (dist Badaun) 10, Dataganj (dist Badaun) 10, Anupshahr (dist Bulandshahar) 9, 

Jalesar (dist Etah) 9, Moradabad Obsy (dist Moradabad) 9, Nawabganj (dist Bareilly) 9, 

Vrindavan (dist Mathura) 9, Agra (Cwc) (dist Agra) 9, Auraiya (Cwc) (dist Auraiya) 9, Mawana 

(dist Meerut) 8, 

 East Uttar Pradesh: Dhaurahara (dist Kheri) 15, Palliakalan (dist Kheri) 9, Muhammadi (dist 

Kheri) 7;

 Haryana & Chandigarh: Nagina Rev (dist Nuh) 15, Palwal (dist Palwal) 13, Mandkhola Aws 

(dist Nuh) 12, Sohana (dist Gurgaon) 12, Nuh (dist Nuh) 12, Taoru (dist Nuh) 12, Faridabad 

(dist Faridabad) 11, Ballabgarh (dist Faridabad) 10, Jhirka (dist Nuh) 10, Gurgaon Aws (dist 

Gurgaon) 10, Hodal (dist Palwal) 9, Punhana (dist Nuh) 9, Hathin (dist Palwal) 8, Gurgaon 

Rev (dist Gurgaon) 8.

 Telangana: Kukatpally Jntu(arg) (dist M. Malkajgiri) 13;

 West Madhya Pradesh: Porsa (dist Morena) 11, Morena-aws (dist Morena) 11, Sabalgarh 

(dist Morena) 11, Mehgaon (dist Bhind) 10, Gormi (dist Bhind) 8, Neemuch-aws (dist 

Neemuch) 8, Dhar-aws (dist Dhar) 8, Gohad (dist Bhind) 8, Vijaypur (adp) (dist Sheopur) 8, 

 Delhi: SPS Mayur Vihar (dist East Delhi) 11, Pusa AWS (dist Central Delhi) 10, Aya Nagar

(dist South Delhi) 9, Lodi Road (dist New Delhi) 9, Safdarjung (dist New Delhi) 7, Sports 

Complex AWS (dist Northeast Delhi) 7;

 West Rajasthan: Parbatsar (dist Nagaur) 11;

Uttarakhand: Nainital & Mukteshwar (dist Nainital) 10 each, Lohaghat (dist Champawat) 9, 

Pithoragarh (dist Pithoragarh) 9, Pantnagar (dist Udham Singh Nagar) 9, Almora (dist Almora) 

8, Banbasa (dist Champawat) 8, Betalghat & Haldwani (dist Nainital) 8 each, Champawat (dist 

Champawat) 7, Kashipur (dist Udham Singh Nagar) 7

 Punjab: Ranjit Sagar Dam Site (dist Pathankot) 9;

Now let us be alert and follow the new Low that can form around Gujarat...Surprising 😮 

8th October 

Rainfall from fizzling BB14

Rained more than expected...Vagaries of the Weather ‥

This is October Rain..👇😧

Gujarat

#Mumbairains

MMR and nearby region rainfall till 8:30am on 8th October, 2022(in mm):

1.  Grant Road:226

2. Dadar(Vag Salil):205

3. Masjid Bunder:184

4. Byculla:181

5. Mahalaxmi:177

6. Marine Lines:173

7. Dombivli:169

8. Kopar Khairane:141

9. Sion:140

10. Versova & Vikhroli:134

11. Chembur:128

12. Ghansoli:125

13. Bandra:120

14. Belapur:119

15. Airoli:115

16. Santacruz IMD & Matheran:114

17. Deonar(Vag Ronnie):113

18. Vashi:110

19. Andheri:109

20. Powai:108

21. Panvel:106

22. Thane:104

23. Ram Mandir:94

24. Mumbra & Kalyan:93

25. Mulund:89

26. Virar:87

27. Palghar:86

28. Dahisar & Colaba IMD:85

29. Mankhurd:82

30. Malvani:77

31. Bhayandar:67

32. Borivali:65

33. Kandivali:64

34. Vasai:57

35. Dahanu:55

Data Credits: MCGM, IMD & Vagarians

Compiled by: Vagarian Abhishek Apte