INDIAN SUBCONTINENT WEATHER.. 28 DEC 2016..

As the calendar year comes to an end , the subcontinent winter shows it's myriad shades ..
From the freeze of the Himalayas (Leh : 6 c / -13 c) to the tropical weather of the Indian ocean islands ( Port Blair: 31 c / 26 c ) /south India ( Chennai : 31 c / 23 c ) ..
In between ,the fog of North India (Patna : 23 c /11 c) and  the crisp , sunny, fine weather of the Deccan plateau (Pune : 29 c / 9 c) ..
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The day temperatures are above normal at most parts of North India ( @ Churu max temp above normal by 7 c)   ..except parts of Uttar Pradesh (@ Lucknow max temp  4 c below normal )

The day temperatures are above normal at the west coast ( @Kannur,Kerala recording it's hottest december day)

The minimum temperatures are below normal in parts of Maharashtra ( @ Aurangabad min temp 3 c below normal) ..

(Click and enlarge the map below for better view)

 

Posted Friday Night:

A low pressure formed from the "Vardah" pulse will deepen to a Well Marked Low. Likely to move West.
Weekend: No major systems expected.
Northern and NW India will remain dry and foggy in the morning. A WD would affect Kashmir and H.P. on Monday. 
Delhi NCR will see patchy fog in the pre noon hours, with the nights remaining around 8c.

Night temperatures dropping by 3/4c in Western Maharshtra. Pune likely to drop to 10/12c alongwith Nasik.
Mumbai:Night temperatures in Mumbai likely to fall by 2/3c this weekend.Day at Colaba was hot on Friday at 35.8c. Likely to be around 34/35c this weekend also.

Bangalore: Weekend will be foggy in the morning and partly cloudy later. Nights will drop to 15/16c.
Kolkata:Night temperatures around 13/14c.

A first hand Experience of "Vardah" from Chennai....by Vagarian Pradeep John.

Historic winds speeds in entire Chennai and massive deluge rains in South Chennai - A fearful memory of Cyclone Vardah to remain for lifetime

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Atlast power is back in Anna Ngar West. Sorry to all, i could not continue to post yesterday after the Cyclone landfall as my battery drained out and then the network was down. 2nd time in my life i had witnessed Cyclone's fury and maybe as i grow old i will forget the 1st one in 1994, but this one i will not. I dont know exactly how much damage this has caused in terms of loss of life or assets. It was really scary even to me who has dreamt of seeing a landfall like this for 20 years. I know lot of lives are affected (direct or indirectly), its not my wish to see joy in others sufferings. I am a pluviophile, its in my heart and mind waiting to witness a event like this. Coming to rains, the worst are over. Dont believe in Rumours that next cyclone is coming. Next one will probably be Low Pressure Area (max) or in the worst case a Depression. We need more rains. Vardah has brought much needed inflow into the Chennai lakes but we need more. For Official wind speeds of Cyclone Vardah we have to wait for some more time. IMD Chennai HWSR recorded 110 km/hr while the pressure drop was huge at 975 mb. Based on pressure, it seems cyclone has made landfall as Very Severe Cyclonic storm itself. The rainfall particularly, the southern Chennai people would not the rains accompanied with winds in life time. In few hours Shollingallur - Guduvanchery - Kancheepuram belt recorded over 300 mm rainfall, this is one scary rainfall happened in South Chennai and add to that the winds, South Chennai will not forget the intensity of rains from the Eyewall bands of Cyclone Vardah so soon. See the precipitation accumulation. Widespread rains and very intense in south Chennai belt. Vellore too got good rains along with Tiruvannmalai boundary areas while Krishnagiri district got some heavy spell too.

Rain amounts from Vardah in mm (min 100 mm)

Sathyabama University (Shollinganallur) - 382

Katupakkam (Near SRM University) - 341

Vembakkam (near Kancheepuram) - 333,Kancheepuram - 280

Korattur Anaicut - 220,Chembarabakkam Lake - 210

Kalavai - 231,Chennai Airport - 203

Sriperumbudur - 170,Taramani - 165

Yercaud - 154 ,Alangayam - 150 

Tambaram - 140 ,Chennai City - 119

Thiruvalangadu - 118 ,Anjatti - 115 

Cholavaram - 110 ,Vellore - 108

Tiruvallur - 107 ,Red hills Lake - 106 

Cheyyar - 106,Ambur - 103 ,Avadi - 103

Chengalpattu - 102 ,Kandhili - 102

Poonamalle - 101 ,Kaveripakkam - 100 

Tiruttani - 100 ,Arani - 100 ,DGP Office - 100.

Rainfall from VSCS Vardah compiled by Vagarian Praneeth :

Thanks to both.

Estimate for 14th and 15th December:
Light rain is likely to occur in Goa and parts of South Konkan on Wednesday and Thursday. Light thunder showers likely in Coastal Karnataka also,

Posted Monday 12th Night:

"Vardah" crosses coast near Chennai on Monday Afternoon as a Severe Cyclonic storm wit winds at 100-110 kmph and very heavy rains in Chennai.
System will move West and wweaken into a Deep Depression by Tuesday morning, approaching Bangalore.
Heavy showers expected in Bangalore on Monday night and Tuesday. Day's high will be around 20c with about 40 mms on Tuesday.

Rains decreasing sharply in Chennai from Monday night.Meenambukam saw a high of 25.1c and measured 179 mms till 8.30 pm. Nungambakkam saw a high of 23.1c and 101 mms till 5.30 pm.

Sathyabama University measured 347 mms of rain and KVK Kattupakkam saw 314 mms.

Vardah moves Inland...Position as on Monday Night:

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 Posted Monday Noon:"Vardah", now about to cross the Land just North of Chennai...Centre of system is just about 50 kms East/North East of Chennai at 11.30 am. System is weakening, and the distinct "Eye" is getting covered with convective clouds. 

However, the Western segment  of the wall shows deep and heavy convection, resulting in very heavy downpours with gusty winds, gusts averaging around 65-70 kmph, in Chennai currently.
55 mms were recorded till 8.30 am..and another 60 mms till noon Monday.Current  temp 21.5c.


Posted 11th Sunday Night:

"Vardah" has moved Westwards since last reporting here. It now ( Sunday Night)lies at 13.1N and 82.5E, around 225 kms East of Chennai.
Current winds are estimated currently at 125-135 kmph. 

Latest Expectations: Likely to track Westwards along the edge of a deep layered Sub Tropical Ridge. Ridge is building westwards as mentioned yesterday.Will be crosing the North T.N./South A.P. coast 12th late morning.
At time of crossing, the system can weaken to a Cyclone status, with 80-90 kmph winds at core.
Very heavy rains expected in North Coastal T.N. and Southern A.P.

Chennai: Light rains have commenced in Chennai.
Very heavy Rainfall and winds in the 80-90 kmph range expected to lash the city from late Sunday night. Difficult to say, but we can estimate around 150-160 mms till Monday mid night.Very cool day.

Bangalore: Light rains on Monday evening. Tuesday: Overcast with showers. Day will be cold with the mercury not going over 20c.

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Posted 11th Sunday Evening 6 pm IST:

Very Severe Cyclonic Storm " Vardah" has moved West as aniticipated and is located 300 kms East of Chennai at 13.1N and 83.1E. 

Currently estimated pressure is 980 mb  and estimated core wind speeds are 125- 135 kmph. Winds are gusting to 150 kmph.

Latest Expectations:  Storm likely to weaken from Sunday evening, and tracking West, likely to cross North TN coast and adjoining South A.P. coast (close to Chennai) on 12th late morning.
On crossing, winds may reduce to 80-90 kmph. But, will remain a Cyclonic storm with potential danger of a cyclone.
System will track West, and reach Bangalore in about 24hrs (by 13th) as a depression/well marked Low.

Next brief progress report with expected rainfall in Chennai and Bangalore by Sunday 11 pm IST

Posted 10th Saturday Night:

"Vardah" a very severe cyclonic storm in the Bay at 13.2N and 86.3E...Sustained winds (1 minute average) estimated at 65 kts and gusting to 80 kts,and estimated core pressure at 985 mb.

One of the main factors that guide and steer the track of such storms is the Sub Tropical Ridge. Now, as a change, we see this ridge as deep layered, Also, the ridge is showing positive signs of extending towards West  into the Bay of Bengal. 

Latest Expectation: Thus, from the current NW track, "Vardah" will start tracking towards the West along the 15N line after 12hrs ( from this report).
Will start weakening in 24 hrs ( from Saturday Night period) and cross South A.P. coast on 12th December.

Chennai: Sunday cloudy and windy with about 10 mms of rain. Rains and winds increasing on Monday. Monday: Cool at 24c with overcast skies and very windy. Chennai can expect about 40 mms Sunday Mid night- Monday mid night.Decrease in rains from Tuesday.

Next Update on 11th Sunday at 6 pm IST

10 DEC 2016 ( EVENING ):

Severe Cyclone Vardah ,"I am in the bay ,getting the power by guzzling moisture ."

Peninsular India ," You suck the moisture and be on cloud nine ,for the time being my weather will be dry,sunny and fine ."


1) With severe Cyclone Vardah in the bay guzzling the moisture , the Indian peninsula has been rendered sunny,dry and lower than normal min temps have been recorded in the peninsular states and parts of central India (MP).

• Bijapur (Karnataka) has recorded min temp of 7.5 c today morning (10 degrees below normal).
• Adilabad (Telangana) has recorded min temp of 6 c today morning .
• Ahmadnagar (Maharashtra) / Rewa (MP) have recorded min temp of 5.6 c today morning.
• Betul / Umaria (MP) have recorded min temp of 6 c today morning .Yesterday, Damoh had recorded 4.4 c
• Anantapur (AP) has recorded min temp of 12.7 c today morning .

Coastal regions :

• Valpoi AWS(Interior Goa) has recorded min temp of 13.2 c today morning.
• Chennai AP(Tamilnadu) has recorded min temp of 19.5 c today morning.
• Palghar AWS (Mumbai region) has recorded min temp of 11.7 c today morning.

!! Mumbai SCZ min temp (15.7 c) was lower than that of Bikaner , Jaisalmer, Barmer (Rajasthan)..The desert state is pretty warmer (min temps at some locations 7 c above normal) this time of the year !!

2) The dry weather has caused significant swings in day and night temps right upto the coast, with Vengurla (coastal Maharashtra) recording 20 c daily range .Valpoi's (Interior Goa) daily temp range was over 22 c.

• Most places in the interior peninsula have recorded daily temp swings of over 20 c , with the semi-arid city of Ahmadnagar (Maharashtra) recording daily temp swing of over 25 c .

Refer the map below

3) As severe Cyclone Vardah will approach the east coast (for prediction refer the post of Rajesh sir below) , the associated cloudiness is expected to increase the min temps of peninsular India in the coming days.

 4) Many cities in Maharashtra have recorded below 10 c min temps.Refer the map below of Maharashtra and surrounding areas (click and enlarge for better view..best viewed on smartphone)

 (Source for Badlapur : Abhijit Modak's private readings)

 

Posted Friday 9th Night:

Cyclone "Vardah" latest position is 12.1N and 89.7 E, having moved NW. Estimated sustained winds speed is 45 kts and gusting to 55 kts. Deep convection (heavy rains ) is now seen West and North-West of the circulation centre. Will continued to be steered by the Sub Tropical Ridge, it will track NW.

Latest Expectations: As it enters favourable conditions, it will continue to intensify. But from 11th morning, it will encounter dry air and increasing shear....and hence will stop its intensification and decrease in strength. Winds speed will reduce, and may be around 35 kts on crossing land. Should be crossing land around 15N -16N by 12th December.


Posted Thursday 8th December Night:

#BB-18, let us now call it Cyclone "Vardah", is located at 11.6N and 91.8E. Having an estimated core wind speed of 45 knts, its core pressure is estimated at 995 mb. Very prominent convection ( very heavy precipitation) seen North of the Centre of the system. 

Expected to strengthen further and track NW.

Latest expectation: Expected to hasten a bit now and can hit A.P. coast at around 16N, South of Vizag as early as 11th December.
Will Chennai get the rains ?

Next report on 9th Friday Night.