Thursday, December 08, 2016

Posted Friday 9th Night:

Cyclone "Vardah" latest position is 12.1N and 89.7 E, having moved NW. Estimated sustained winds speed is 45 kts and gusting to 55 kts. Deep convection (heavy rains ) is now seen West and North-West of the circulation centre. Will continued to be steered by the Sub Tropical Ridge, it will track NW.

Latest Expectations: As it enters favourable conditions, it will continue to intensify. But from 11th morning, it will encounter dry air and increasing shear....and hence will stop its intensification and decrease in strength. Winds speed will reduce, and may be around 35 kts on crossing land. Should be crossing land around 15N -16N by 12th December.

Posted Thursday 8th December Night:

#BB-18, let us now call it Cyclone "Vardah", is located at 11.6N and 91.8E. Having an estimated core wind speed of 45 knts, its core pressure is estimated at 995 mb. Very prominent convection ( very heavy precipitation) seen North of the Centre of the system. 

Expected to strengthen further and track NW.

Latest expectation: Expected to hasten a bit now and can hit A.P. coast at around 16N, South of Vizag as early as 11th December.
Will Chennai get the rains ?

Next report on 9th Friday Night.


NilaY Wankawala said...

Last days been wondering your forecast has been so precise as it's seen at the inception level u were the first to say bb 18 will eventually be a cyclone.

Rohit Aroskar said...

Maharashtra : fine dry weather
..Deccan plateau and Vidarbha .. Min 6 to 12 c , max 29 to 31 c
.. Konkan.. min 14 to 20 c , max 33 to 35 c

Vijayanand said...

IMD has changed the landfall location to just north of nellore now. Feel its going to die in sea or cross Nellore-chennai coastline as a fragile depression.

CMC and ECM is also showing nellore for land fall now. So path moved down from kainada-vizag to nellore-ongole.

Rohit Aroskar said...

The lull before the storm..
..most places in Andhra min temp between 15 to 20 c ..max around 31 c..
..Nandigama..min @ 12 c
At Telangana .. Min temp at most places 12 to 13 c ..max around 30 c ..
..Adilabad ..min @ 7 c

sset said...

Cyclone seems to be encountering dry air ... why this hurdles for south india NEM? sometimes dry air, shear, westerlies continues obstacles....

Rohit Aroskar said...

Karnataka.. Bijapur@ 30 c / 09 c

Rohit Aroskar said...

Damoh MP .. 4.4 c min temp

  25th March Evening  Let's Appreciate when the Air Quality is Good