Friday Rain cools down India Region:...See Map of Friday rainfall on Current Weather Page just Published

Highest in India on Friday was at ,Rentachinatala  36.8c,  Solapur was 36.0c (Mah).Hotspot Surat cooled to 33.0c. Delhi Sjung max was 23.2c and Palam 22.9c.

Vagaries was 33.3c, Scruz 32.6c and Colaba 31.2c....Wardha (Vidharbha) recorded rainfall of 32 mms on Friday
Chennai received an average of 8 mms on Friday...
Lowest in the hills at Leh  -10c, and in the plains was Ballia (UP) at 7.5c.

Across the border in Pakistan, highest was Pasni at 26.5c...Islamabed maximum was 15c
Karachi and Hyderabad were at 24c in the day, with trace in Hyderabad and 9 mms in Karachi on Friday.
Parchinar was coldest at -9c...

Highest in Nepal was at Biratnagar, 25.7c. Lowest at Jumla, -2c.
Kathmandu saw a max of 19c and a low of 6.5c, with no rain today. Rains expected tomorrow.

February 2013 as yet....see a review of the month on Current Page...

Further Outlook for next 3 days, 15th/16th and 17th given Below: 

Friday, 15th: Thundershowers popping up around Pune and South of Pune. Vid and Nagpur gats light rains on Friday night.
South wards, rains stretch upto Bangalore thru Hyderabad.

Rainfall moving into Delhi and covering the Delhi-Jaipur belt. In the East, it covers upto Lucknow, Kanpur and Allahbad. As the day progresses, rains increase in Delhi NCR and cover Punjab, Haryana and UP upto Lucknow.
Mentioning this sepeartely to distinguish it from F-2 and stress upon its movemnet from South to North.
F-2 moves into Kashmir and HP. Precipitaion expected in North Pakistan, Central Sindh and SE corner of Sindh. Karachi, being cloudy could expect showers.

Saturday 16th: Rains spread East into UP, with heavy falls in East UP and Bihar. Thundershower in Delhi NCR on Saturday night.
Adjoining Nepal, and Kathmandu get good rains on Saturday.

Sunday 17th: Rains move Eastwards. Rainfall along the East coast from Bengal to TN coast..Chennai can get showers.
Kolkata cloudy with light showers.

Mumbai: Partly cloudy Friday. Clearing from Saturday. Cooling down to 30-18c on Saturday and another 1 or 2 c by Sunday morning.

Pune: Thunderclouds popping up on  15th Friday evening, with light rains in some parts. Ghat stations can get some rain in the evening on Friday. Partly cloudy on the weekend though.
Night temperatures dropping from Friday night, reaching 14/15c by Monday morning. 

Delhi NCR: Gearing up from 15th Friday cloudy morning, and showers in the day. Cloudy and cool, day around 21c.

16th Saturday: Rainy and cloudy Saturday, with day dropping below 19c, and thundershower in the evening. Clearing up after the thunder by night. 

Accumulated rains on Friday and Saturday around 40-45 mms, roughly 25-30 mms Friday and 20-25 mms Saturday. 

17th Sunday: partly cloudy getting clear. 

Surat, now very hot and above normal, will see cooling down to 32c from Saturday, from W/NW winds, turning North on Sunday. Expecting a low of 14/15c by Sunday morning, and days dropping to 30c.

Chennai gets rain showers on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, with humid and cloudy days. Average rainfall around 7-10 mms /day

We can almost continue from the forecast of our previous post.

It can be mentioned that things and sequence have almost fallen in place till Monday..Record rains for Nasik getting 37.2 mms in 24 hrs ended Tuesday morning, the highest ever for a February day.. beating the previous 16.5 of 1968 by more than double. Rest of N. Maharashtra got rains with Jalgoan 21 mms.
Parts of Mumbai got traces of rain on Monday night, and the Mumbai -Pune belt recieved showers in various places...rainfall is mentioned by readers in the comments of the previous article..

However on Tuesday, the weak low which was east of Mumbai, moved NE into MP and onwards towards UP (expected movement was to the North)..spreading clouds and meagre precipitation into rest of MP and UP. It would be correct to say it has very tactfully avoided Delhi !
It has "flattened" out into a "mini trough" at 25N (MP/UP)
The trough, roughly along or just below 25N next day, forms a weak low in South Rajasthan and MP border on the Thursday 14th. On Friday 15th, the low should move North into North Rajasthan.

Forecast for 13th Wednesday/ 14thThursday and 15th Friday:

Wednesday 13th, there will be very little rains in S.Rajasthan, around Ajmer and Kota. Adjoining Guna might get some light drizzles.. 
Some medium heavy spells could be expected in South TN, that is Kanyakumari region and Southern districts of TN.

Thursday 14th, rainfall from this trough spreads into adjoining Central MP/Rajasthan and a heavy rain pocket in the Agra/Gwalior region.
Easterly wave moves inland and light precipitation spreads into interior TN and S.I. Karnataka (including Bangalore).

Now, we move to and follow F-2. Like last Friday's mention, seems to be on the same date schedule, 14th Feb. F-2 moves into Northern Pakistan, so precipitation commences in Balochistan region extending into the Punjab (Pakistan)areas.
Light rains in Islamabad in the evening.

Friday 15th: The low moves into North Rajasthan and adjoining areas. Heavier rainfall in the Delhi NCR region. Heavy showers possible East of Delhi in the Western UP region also. Precipitation can be expected in Vidharbha and Nagpur may get showers.
Precipitation continues in S.I. Karnataka and parts of TN. 

A sharp vertical Southerly wind current will stretch the rainfall from Lucknow southwards thru Vid into thru Hyderabad into Interior Karnataka.

F-2 moves into Central Sindh, though light showers there, and also in Kashmir and HP. Light to medium precipitation from F-2 in these regions.
Rain in Islamabad.

Mumbai City:
13th/14th: Partly cloudy getting Clear. With the warm day on Wednesday (34c) relenting to 32c on Thursday. Nights around 20c.
15th Friday: NW winds resume, and bring the temperatures back to the low 29/30. Nights dropping by 2/3c to 18c.

Delhi NCR: 
Wednesday will be sunny, but Thursday will be warm at, maybe around 26c.
Friday 15th: Cloudy and rain showers from afternoon, with thunder. Strong SE winds in the day. Upto 15-20 mms expected till Saturday morning.
Rains continue into Saturday..forecast will be issued soon..Saturday day getting another 25 mms...

Surat remains warm till Thursday due to the impending low disturbing the wind pattern. Dropping day temperatures by 2/3c from Friday.

Chennai cloudy on all days, can expect light showers on Friday, say 3-5 mms.

Precipitation effect from this syetm moving into Central Nepal. Kathmandu can get showers on Friday. Will cool down by 2/3c to around 19/20c in the day, from Friday.

Karachi remains warm till Thursday, around 31c and 16c, but getting cooler and partly cloudy from Friday by 2/3c..

Picture of 1st Vagaries Meeting at Phoenix Mills Mall on 12th February 2013..

From left..GSB (Gurvinder), Salil, Junaid,Puneet, Abhijit, Rohit and Rajesh.

How Cold was the Sub-Continent in Jan 2013, and how wet ? See diagrams on Current Weather Page..

Sub_Continent Weather:
9th Feb, Saturday turning almost dry except for some isolated rains around Mangalore and adjoining interior Karnataka regions.

10th Feb, Sunday getting cloudy in Madhya Mah region, with evening thundershowers in Ahmednagar dist, and cloudy over the North Konkan belt. Light rain likely in Mumbai vicinity on Sunday night.

11th Feb Monday rainfall expected in pockets of Surat region, Bharuch, and adjoining north Mah.
Also Indore Ujjain region of MP can get some showers.

12th Feb Tuesday rain patch moves north into adjoining Rajasthan, with Udaipur and Central Rajasthan getting rains.

A WD, F-2, moves across the upper regions of the Sub-Continent from Thursday, 14th Feb, 

Delhi NCR: Clouding after weekend, showing a rising trend...
Saturday 9th/Sunday 10th: Clear with SE winds after Monday. Temperatures in the 26-12c range.
Monday 11th: Partly cloudy, with high clouds, and rise in Temperatures.
Tuesday 12th: Cloudy and rise in night temperatures.
Rains from the South move into Delhi NCR on Wednesday.

Mumbai: A gradual rise in temperatures next few days.

Saturday 9th: Clear sky, with NE winds dominating. Temperatures (Scruz) in the 31/32c and 16/17c range.

Sunday 10th: Getting cloudy towards evening. Warm night, with chances of light rain around vicinity of city late night. Outer townships can get some light rains by night.

Monday 11th: Chances of light rains in some parts during the day. Monday morning low will be 20c (Scruz).


Tuesday 12th: Partly cloudy in the morning, clearing by evening.

Pune: Forget any fall in temperatures next few days. 
First a partly cloudy Sunday, and Expect light rains in some parts of city on Monday 11th. 

Slight instability brings Cumulus clouds in the Eastern horizon.


Surat will be cloudy from 10th, Sunday night, hence warming up in the night. 
Chances of rain in the region on 11th Monday. 

Nepal remains dry, with a rising trend in temperatures this weekend ..F-2 may not effect Kathmandu. 
Due to less than normal precipitations in Kathmandu in Jan and Feb (so far..4 mms against 18 mms normal), the temperatures in the day are hovering around 23/24c. Spring like feelings !
As Neeraj points out, the peaks surrounding the capital, (Shivapuri 8900 ft - north, Chandragiri 8000 feet - Southwest, Phulchowki  9300 feet- Southeast, Nagarkot 7000 feet - northeast).  are devoid of snow this year. (Phulchowki (9300 Ft) almost always gets snow).

Resistance from Central India highs and an attraction to the SE by the prevalent trough in the J-4 case, the WD effects totally avoided Nepal with meaningful rains, except the Western regions..

 Mercury is a strange planet, indeed,  see for yourself at Sunset...More on Space News Page with pic

A Possible Naked-eye Comet in March..see here

Details of Sub-Continent Precipitation put up on Vagaries Extreme Blog as records..

The huge effect of F-1 over Pakistan is seen from the high amounts of rain and snow..above 200 mms in some places. 

List given by Wajahat in comments proves the point.A detailed list of record snow is also given in the PWP blog here. It mentions of Jeddah getting 111 mms !

F-1 effects on Dubai and Muscat have already been pictured on vagaries.

Dehra Dun had heavy rains last night, 43 mms, and Musoorie 30 mms...only light snows there....Delhi accumulated 57 mms at Sjung and 30 mms at Palam averaging 44 mms between the 2 stations.

Wednesday F-1 moves away NE, and precipitation decreases from Wednesday afternoon...mild precipitation effect till Wednesday afternoon in Utterakhand, West UP and adjoining NCR and Nepal. Delhi can expect 5-7 mms of rainfall on Wednesday.

On 6th and 7th Feb,N and NW winds pick up in the entire region north of 20N line...hence cold wave in the marked regions. 

In some parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab, Haryana, MP and North Mah., night temperatures may dip by 5/6c from current levels.

Within Next 3 nights, likely to reach 7c in North Mah, Gujarat, 4c in Kutch and Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana.

Cold coditions will cover Sindh and Northern plains of Pakistan. Nights will drop to 3c in Sindh and Balochistan plains, and 4/5c in Northern plains. 

Karachi can drop to 11c, Hyderabad (Pak) will drop to 11c and Sukkur will go to 6c. 

Kathmandu will get a shower on Wednesday, and then clear weather, Night will be 5c till Friday. Expect colder night on Saturday...

But, South Mah (Pune/Solapur and Vid ) may not get the full effect as a weak low forms over the region on the 6th and 7th.

Some isolated rains may occur in S.Mah(interior), Vidarbh (including Nagpur) and adjoining N.I.Karnataka (including Bangalore) and Vid next 2 days.

City Forecasts for Wed/Thursday and Friday: Next 3 days...weekend forecast will be put up later.

Delhi NCR, rains clearing from Wednesday afternoon. Next 2 nights dropping to 7/8c as cold North winds pick up.Fog on 7th and 8th morning.

Pune will be partly cloudy from Thursday, and temperatures will remain in the 31 - 13c range. Light rain in some parts of vicinity on Thursday/Friday.

Surat: Clear, with North winds cooling down the day temperatures by 2c to around 27/28c.. Nights likely to go down to 13c.

Mumbai City: Clear skies and N/NW winds will be cold and dry. Wednesday and Thursday will see a drop in temperatures will be bringing down the range to 28/29c in the day and maybe 15c at night at Scruz.

Snow Covers most of Britain..all from London to Scotland...superb sat image...See International Page

Priti sends pics from Bharuch..Tuesday morning inter active Page....and Delhi pics on FB group..
F-1 moved exactly into the regions forecasted last week, and precipitates good rainfall in Northern Indian states and Pakistan...

In Kashmir, Batote 46 mms, Gulmarg measured 16 mms, Srinagar 3 mms, Banihal 34 mms. In HP Kullu guaged 26 mms, Kapla and Keylong 22 mms and Simla 12 mms
Pathankot in Punjab saw 16 mms, Amritsar 11 mms, and several stations upto 5-10 mms.
Few places in Delhi NCR had some light drizzles measured in traces. 
Rajasthan saw some pockets of rain with Jaisalmer showing 4 mms and Churu 1 mm.

In Pakistan, Islamabad AP received 62 mms, Mianwali 50 mms, Lahore 19 mms and all stations in Punjab between 10-20 mms.
In Sindh, Karachi managed 6 mms, Rohri and Dadu 9 mms and some stations up to 5 mms. In Balochistan, Khuzdar measured 39 mms. 
More Pakistan rainfall amounts from "Memories of the Past" and Cmdr Potey in the comments ..

As anticipated,  Nagpur, was warmer at 31.7c, with S/SE winds resuming from evening hours.

F-1 now lies as on Monday morning as an upper air system upto sea level over the Indian Punjab region, with a trough going Southwards upto South Rajasthan. An induced low at sea level is seen over South Rajasthan.

Surat remains hazy on Monday and clearing up from Tuesday thru Thursday. SW winds on Monday, but reverting to NW from Tuesday morning. No fog from Tuesday.
Monday and Tuesday see a drop in the day temperatures to around 29/30c. Wednesday a further drop by around 2c...nights will start dropping fronm the current 21c to 17/18c straaight away from Monday night..plummeting to around 13c by Wednesday and Thursday morning. 

Similar conditions for Bharuch..maybe 1/2c cooler than Surat at night..

See evening post of Actual report of Saturday posted ....also Tuesday's forecast finalised..all below in this article against date 2nd Feb...also see Inter Active Page for Sunday pics

Vagaries is putting up its forecast for the next 4 days for Mumbai City..Mumbai Page

January 2013: City wise actual Temperature anomalies and departure..and February Outlook put up on "Current Weather Page"...

Posted on 31st Jan :

1st Feb, Friday: Forecast remains almost same, Isolated rains in Nepal. Kathmandu will be cloudy with light rainfall.

F-1 moves into Pakistan. Western regions of Pakistan start getting rain/snow.

Some rains in Central regions of Sindh. Precipitation commences over Kashmir region.

Some light rains in Sunderbans area of Bangladesh and adjoining coastal W.Bengal in the evening. Kolkata gets cloudy to some extent also.

Actual Report of Friday 1st Feb:

The main "low" region is still In Eastern Iran, the trough extends Southwards into Western Pakistan region as on Friday evening. 

F-1 has moved into Western Pakistan, and has started precipitating rain/snow, though light till Friday evening. 

Quetta is drizzling in the evening, with gusty winds at 30-40 kmph.

Dal Bandin in Western Balochistan has been recieving light rains since evening. Central Sindh regions are also reporting light rains and overcast conditions on Friday evening, and Hyderabad is overcast.

Moving into India by Saturday...

Nepal was dry today, with Kathmandu showing a max of 25.5c..though i would put some cahnces of light rain there tomorrow afternoon.

And Cloudy weather as predicted for Kolkata...rain accumulation maps show light drizzles in South Bangladesh (coastal) regions...

(Original Forecast)2nd Feb, Saturday: F-1 schedule has been delayed by a day. F-1, the system will not move into the Northern India hill states as expected..but, will cover most Pakistan regions, Central and coastal Pakistan. The coastal Sindh region and Karachi may get rain as the F-1 starts precipitating in the region. 

Actual Report:

On Schedule. Many places in Pakistan received the F-1 rains on Saturday. While rains were recorded from Parachinar, Quetta, Dal Bandin and Islamabad, rains are moving eastwards along the Sindh coast. Karachi shouls see light showers on Saturday night...

Sunday shown below: though there is a "defiant" high pressure at 850 mb over Northern India. A very favourable 500 mb wind flow may help. i do not think it should create any hindrance to F-1 for moving into India on Sunday/Monday...F-1 moving into NW India and the hill States...with clouds in Delhi with light rain chances in some parts at night...

3rd Feb Sunday: The system now moves thru entire Pakistan and into NW India. F-1 moves into plains of Pakistan and Indian Punjab, Haryana and cloudy over Delhi NCR. Light rains over Delhi NCR on Sunday night, with SE winds gaining speed..

Windy day for Nagpur as Southerly winds gain speed, and show a rise in temperatures.

4th Feb Monday: No weakening for the system on Monday, as the trough deepens, maybe with an induced low over Rajasthan, the system gains strength, and Monday sees precipitation all over Northern Pakistan, with heavy falls of 40-50 mms around Lahore and surrounding Punjab. 

Cloudy and windy (SE) day for Delhi NCR, with frequent showers in most regions.(city rainfall 5-10 mms upto Tuesday morning)

Rains will be occuring in Kashmir, HP, plains of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Delhi NCR on Monday. If the induced low is formed, South Rajasthan along with Saurashtra, North Gujarat and Kutch too will get rains from Monday evening.

Mumbai foggy and low visibility in the morning.

5th Feb,Tuesday: In effect, the would be F-2 trough merges, the trough strengthens with the induced low. Result could be heavier thunder rains in North India, i.e. Kashmir, HP, Utterakhand, Punjab,Haryana, UP, Rajasthan and Delhi NCR on Tuesday. 

Again Tuesday for Delhi will be completely overcast and cool with thundershowers. City rainfall upto Wed morning 20-25 mms.

The shifting of cloud line along the SW/NE line will shift the rains to South Gujarat also. Saurashtra gets clear, but rains thru S.Gujarat/MP and UP line.

Mumbai foggy and misty in the morning.