Thursday, February 14, 2013

Further Outlook for next 3 days, 15th/16th and 17th given Below: 

Friday, 15th: Thundershowers popping up around Pune and South of Pune. Vid and Nagpur gats light rains on Friday night.
South wards, rains stretch upto Bangalore thru Hyderabad.

Rainfall moving into Delhi and covering the Delhi-Jaipur belt. In the East, it covers upto Lucknow, Kanpur and Allahbad. As the day progresses, rains increase in Delhi NCR and cover Punjab, Haryana and UP upto Lucknow.
Mentioning this sepeartely to distinguish it from F-2 and stress upon its movemnet from South to North.
F-2 moves into Kashmir and HP. Precipitaion expected in North Pakistan, Central Sindh and SE corner of Sindh. Karachi, being cloudy could expect showers.

Saturday 16th: Rains spread East into UP, with heavy falls in East UP and Bihar. Thundershower in Delhi NCR on Saturday night.
Adjoining Nepal, and Kathmandu get good rains on Saturday.

Sunday 17th: Rains move Eastwards. Rainfall along the East coast from Bengal to TN coast..Chennai can get showers.
Kolkata cloudy with light showers.

Mumbai: Partly cloudy Friday. Clearing from Saturday. Cooling down to 30-18c on Saturday and another 1 or 2 c by Sunday morning.

Pune: Thunderclouds popping up on  15th Friday evening, with light rains in some parts. Ghat stations can get some rain in the evening on Friday. Partly cloudy on the weekend though.
Night temperatures dropping from Friday night, reaching 14/15c by Monday morning. 

Delhi NCR: Gearing up from 15th Friday cloudy morning, and showers in the day. Cloudy and cool, day around 21c.

16th Saturday: Rainy and cloudy Saturday, with day dropping below 19c, and thundershower in the evening. Clearing up after the thunder by night. 

Accumulated rains on Friday and Saturday around 40-45 mms, roughly 25-30 mms Friday and 20-25 mms Saturday. 

17th Sunday: partly cloudy getting clear. 

Surat, now very hot and above normal, will see cooling down to 32c from Saturday, from W/NW winds, turning North on Sunday. Expecting a low of 14/15c by Sunday morning, and days dropping to 30c.

Chennai gets rain showers on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, with humid and cloudy days. Average rainfall around 7-10 mms /day


Abhijit Modak said...

Rajesh Sir : From Monday to Thursday thunderclouds were forming in east & clouds movement were from east to west..

But today SW/W/NW gusty winds blowing and clouds direction also changed as now alto cumulus clouds coming from SW and moving towards NE.

So is it due to The trough in easterlies extends from southeast Arabian Sea to northeast Arabian Sea !!

Also now most of models forecasting some chances of rain for Mumbai for tonight & tomorrow morning !

So whether Vagaries predicting the same or sticking to yesterday's Mumbai forecast only of : Partly cloudy Friday. Clearing from Saturday !!

Unknown said...

humidity is also on rise, clouding has increased in vasai, could there be possibilities of thundershower in around mumbai

Rajesh said...

abhijit: Good observations..ok, charts of 0900 hrs UTC Friday, and 1200 UTC fFriday show the low in the North now as an extended low. The Low isobar circles from North Raj to South Gujarat to MP. It is extended in the Raj/Guj /MP region at 1010 mb.
Now, as the winds are anti clock wise, the SW winds commenced in the N.Konkan region to circle the low, and N winds came down the Western edge of the low ,where Shitij marked North winds in Surat.
Also abhijit, please note the Mumbai clouds are flattening.So atmosphere is stable on the upper level..

rkjrdp: you have removed your comments for some reason..but gald to note Chennai getting rains as predicted.
Thanks Tyrone for the Karachi feedback, yes, we had expected rains there too
and we also have evening news rains report from Akshay where he says Nagpur got thundershowers in the evening Friday..

Rajesh said...

Abhijit: i normally do not like to change forecast unless it is abs necassary...not used to changing every 12 hrs....must be sure while putting up forecast after thorough checking and study..

anyway..all forecast on schedule again..Rains in Delhi nCR, Chennai, Nagpur, Karachi and South Mah..

rkjrdp said...

Chennai got rain today and also the amount as you predicted.(Rajesh sir, there was a trouble while posting, so i deleted my comments. sorry.)

Abhijit Modak said...

Chennai Rain figure till 5.30pm today.
MKBM : 11.6 mm
NGBM : 6.2 mm

Atul P Naik said...

It's raining in Margao - Goa as at 17 :30 hrs UTC! After touching new high for Feb yesterday 14th at 36.5 C. High humidity and clouds towards the evening. Forecast for rains in S Mah can be extended to include Goa! Hope it brings respite from the heat!

Rajesh said...

Atul: hope so..shall include Goa if you are regular..and if feedback is coming

Atul P Naik said...

Rajeshbhai: weather prediction is in its infancy in Goa. Your inputs will be highly appreciated. Rained heavily throughout the night here, accompanied by thunder. Stopped around 6:30 am on 16th. Dark clouds in the west. Appears to be clearing!

Pradeep said...

you were spot on Chennai rains sir.

Rajesh said...

Pradeep: Thanks Pradeep for the rare compliment :-)

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