Vagaries was not absolutely off the mark in the forecast for 17th to 19th for South Maharashtra... Pune, *Rainfall(mm) Pune from 0830 hrs IST of 19th October 2026 to 0830 hrs IST of 20th October 2026*
HADAPSAR 14.0, MAGARPATTA 14.0, CHINCHWAD 3.0, NARAYANGOAN 1.5, HAVELI 1.0, NDA 0.5
& Mahabaleshwar did get moderate rainfall on 18th /19th.
2 dayscAccumulated rainfall map
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- Meteorological Status of El Nino
- The latest weekly relative Niño3.4 index value for the week ending 11 October 2026 is +2.81 °C, well above the El Niño threshold (+0.80 °C).
- In the bureau weekly sea surface temperature (SST) data, (GAMSSA, starting in 2008) this is the highest value on record, exceeding +2.78 °C for the week ending 22 November 2015
- Outlook & Forecast
- Peak Intensity: Models indicate the event will peak around November–December 2026, with a high probability of becoming a historic, ultra-strong event exceeding pre-1950 levels.
- Duration: El Niño conditions have a 100% probability of persisting through the remainder of 2026 and boreal spring (MAM) 2027.
- Transition: A gradual weakening is expected by mid-2027, with ENSO-neutral conditions favored by summer (JJA 2027).
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