16th June 2026

Why Has the Monsoon Gone Quiet?

Current Atmospheric & Oceanic Factors Behind the Lull

🔴 1. Atmosphere Responding to Developing El Niño

Nino 3.4 SST anomalies continue to warm.

SOI remains strongly negative.

Indicates atmospheric circulation is already aligning with El Niño conditions.

🔵 2. Suppressed MJO Activity

Madden-Julian Oscillation remains weak and away from the Indian Ocean.

Reduced tropical convection over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.

Possible influence from developing strong El Niño conditions.

🟠 3. Dry Air Intrusion

Strong Western Disturbances recently moved across North India.

Dry continental air from North/Northwest India has spread southward.

Limiting cloud growth and monsoon convection.

🟢 4. Weak Somali Jet & Lack of Bay Systems

Somali Jet remains poorly developed over the Arabian Sea.

No significant Low Pressure Areas or Monsoon Depressions forming in the Bay.

No Pacific typhoon remnants entering the Bay to trigger monsoon systems.

🟣 5. Neutral IOD

Indian Ocean Dipole remains near neutral.

Currently providing neither support nor suppression to the monsoon.

📌 Overall Assessment

⚠️ The combination of: • Developing El Niño

• Suppressed MJO

• Dry air intrusion

• Weak Somali Jet

• Absence of Bay depressions

has resulted in an unusually subdued monsoon phase, with weather resembling late summer/pre-monsoon conditions across many parts of India.

Vagaries Outlook:

The next significant increase in rainfall will likely require either: 

✅ Revival of MJO activity over the Indian Ocean

✅ Strengthening of the Somali Jet

✅ Formation of a Bay Low Pressure Area/Monsoon Depression