Quick Reading Monsoon Watch - 1... 2026👇 ...11th April

  

                                 Detailed Views👇

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 Monsoon Watch -1 2026....11th April 

These reports are our personal views, study and observations. Estimates and forecasts are also our own calculations and views, and may/may not tally with any other estimates. This may not be used for commercial purposes. The author is not responsible for any commercial loss from this article, or this series of articles.

The Monsoon developments, as they unfold, will be analysed and discussed and explained in Vagaries. 

The South West Monsoon is just about 35 days away from its normal date of arrival from the shores of India ! Yes ! its just 35 days from the First touch of shores...Southern most point of India on the South Andaman Islands, Indira Point, where the normal arrival date is 15th May.
And its about time we start the follow up of its progress and monitor its developments. 

The Sub-Continent is eagerly awaiting its share of 2026 monsoon rains !

This annual series is a follow up and chasing of the South-West Monsoon.

 Every article in this series explains the synoptic situation as it actually is, and based on the the day's position, the date and quantum of rains as on THIS DATE.

It is very important to firstly estimate the date of arrival of the South West Monsoon, as year to year, variations in dates of onset of the monsoon can occur and there have been several occasions in the past when the monsoon arrived over certain parts of the country about a fortnight earlier or later than the normal dates. The SWM has the  weatherman tearing at his hair for the exact date or time, extent and progress. This is never 100 per cent sure though various weather models are used to calculate this event.

Initially, in the first few parts, of this series will be chasing and closely following up the actual developments of the monsoon parameters, and analysing its progress regionally for calculating and estimating the arrival date. 
We are not yet contemplating the quantum of rains or the monsoon strength as yet. 

There are 2 parts to this article:
A)-This is the Ideal Conditions  During SWM Onset in Early June. 

and 

B) Below indicates the actual situation of the parameters situation today (11th April).

1. Mascarene Highs:

The proper formation of these "High" regions,(1032/1034 mb at least) will boost and create proper South East winds to lash the East African Coast near the Equator, and then turn perpendicular to South West in the Northern Hemisphere.

Indicator: -ve: Formation yet to start: 

2. Seasonal low at its peak, in early June, should normally be around 994 mb, and the ridge around Kerala should be 1008/1010 mb. This enables a good gradient to pull the SWM Northwards along the coast and inland.

 

This year, the heating in the sub continent has started in March, with  Heat Waves in Gujarat, Central India and parts of NW India.. 

The above normal heating in many parts decreased  in April.  
On an average, March has registered above normal temperature (average day and night) in North, and above normal in Central ad South.

The above normal heating in many parts reduced in April. Awaiting the first 45c 0f this year ...Last year first 45c was on 6th April at Barmer  and Jaisalmer.

March Rainfall was +24%

These are a points in the formation, or a quicker formation of one of the important pre monsoon weather requirement, the seasonal low.

Indicator: Neutral.

3. Cross Equatorial Winds:

Cross Equatorial Winds should start forming, and taking shape from mid -April, especially in the South Indian ocean region. 

Initial forming of SE winds off the East African Coast has not started from below the equator.Cross Equatorial Winds should start forming, and taking shape from mid -April, especially in the South Indian ocean region. 
Initial forming of SE winds off the East African Coast has started from below the equator.Cross Equatorial Winds should start forming, and taking shape from mid -April, especially in the South Indian ocean region. 
Initial forming of SE winds off the East African Coast has started from below the equator.

Indicator: -ve: No clear Indications of proper winds formation either side of Equator.

4. ENSO:   ENSO-neutral conditions are present and are favored through April-June 2026 (80% chance). In May-July 2026, El Niño is likely to emerge (61% chance) and persist through at least the end of 2026.

Indicator: Heading towards -ve

5. Bay Low

4. Another pre monsoon seasonal normal requirement is the creation of a low in the Bay by the second week of April. This is necessary to trigger off the flow and formation of lows from the bay.

Indicator: No immediate Low forming Visible  -ve

Summary for estimate of arrival Date: 

Parameter 1). Mascarene High: -ve.  

Parameter 2). Seasonal Low: Neutral Parameter 

Parameter  3) Cross Equatorial winds: -ve 

Parameter  4). ENSO: Heading -ve.

Parameter 5) Bay Low: No Low forecasted: -ve

Summary: Tilted towards negative..(Late arrival), as of 11th April. Parameters analysed as of now show slow progress for Monsoon Advance on time.

Parameters can vary rapidly depending on the meteorological changes.


New Readers, please note, These initial Parameters are normally (every year) considered in MW Series to gauge and estimate the arrival date of SWM, not strength. Time of arrival normally indicated in MW-3, and strength after 27th April. There are more parameters are to be considered, as and when they are developed and to be taken into consideration.
MW-2 on 23rd.April.