🌧️ Vagaries Monsoon Watch – 2
23rd April
1. Mascarene Highs
Forming speed is slow and inadequate at present.
The pressure gradient is yet to strengthen sufficiently to support robust cross-equatorial flow.
Indicator: 🔴 -ve
2. Seasonal Low & Heat
The seasonal low (~1000 mb) is developing on expected lines for now.
Interior regions have already touched 45°C (17th April), indicating progressive heating.
Indicator: 🟢 Normal
3. Equatorial Winds
With the Mascarene High still weak, the SE winds remain south of the equator and feeble.
Cross-equatorial push is yet to establish, which is crucial for monsoon onset dynamics.
Indcator: -ve
4. Bay Branch
No organized or strong convective systems seen in the Bay yet.
The Bay branch currently lacks momentum and structure.
Indicator: 🔴 -ve
5. ENSO Status (April 2026)
Current State: ENSO Neutral
Short-term: Neutral conditions likely to continue briefly
Transition: Rapid shift towards El Niño expected (May–July)
Probability: 61–94% chance of El Niño dominating later in 2026
This evolution is not supportive for a strong early monsoon.
Indicator: 🔴 Strong El Niño tendency
🔎 Vagaries Summary
South West Monsoon likely delayed, especially in the Bay branch.
West Coast arrival currently estimated around 1st week of June.
Overall tilt: Slightly negative as of now.
⚠️ These assessments are based on current parameters and may evolve in the next 10 days.
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