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Credit Australian government Bureau of metereologyIssued Tuesday 25 October 2022 The latest Climate Driver Update and Climate Model Summary are now available on our website.La Niña and negative Indian Ocean Dipole continueLa Niña continues in the tropical Pacific. Models indicate a return to ENSO-neutral conditions (neither La Niña nor El Niño) early in 2023.La Niña typically increases the chance of above average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia during spring and summer.The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event also continues. Models indicate that the negative IOD is likely to persist into late spring before rapidly decaying.A negative IOD typically increases the chance of above average spring rainfall for most of the central and eastern areas of Australia. When La Niña and negative IOD conditions combine, the likelihood of above average rainfall over Australia is further increased, particularly for the eastern half of the continent. Our extended and long-range forecasts show that above average rainfall is likely across much of eastern Australia.Climate change continues to influence Australian and global climate. Australia's climate has warmed by around 1.47 °C for the 1910–2020 period. There has also been a trend towards a greater proportion of rainfall from high-intensity short-duration rainfall events, especially across northern Australia.ENSO OutlookOur ENSO Outlook providesup-to-date information on the likelihood of an El Niño or La Niña developing. Current status: LA NIÑA
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