Monsoon Watch -3...2nd May 2022.

Cross Equatorial Winds struggling to get organised, but will soon re group with the aid of the Bay system...

ITCZ around 5S

Heat effect: Very Strong and Consistent...March/April way above Normal....But Seasonal Low around 1000 mb..will deepen very soon..Indicator : Normal

See Note on Heat Comparison to previous years, given below in this article

La Niña weakens,   Indicator:+   

Six of seven climate models surveyed by the Australian Bureau indicate a return to neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—neither La Niña nor El NiñoThe 2021–22 La Niña event continues to weaken, with oceanic indicators mostly at neutral levels. However, atmospheric indicators remain above La Niña thresholds, meaning La Niña's influence continues.

La Nada

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. The latest IOD index value for the week ending 24 April 2022 was +0.01 °C. Surface waters are warmer than average over most of the Indian Ocean for the week ending 24 April 2022. 

Four of five international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the possibility of negative IOD development in May, with all five reaching negative IOD thresholds by June.

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has recently become weak. Climate models indicate the MJO is likely to remain weak, having little influence on tropical weather and climate in the coming fortnight. Indicator: Neutral

Above References from Aust. Bureau of Met.

ONI: Indicator :Neutral

DESCRIPTION: Warm (red) and cold (blue) periods based on a threshold of +/- 0.5^oC for the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) 

2021	-1.0	-0.9	-0.8	-0.7	-0.5	-0.4	-0.4	-0.5	-0.7	-0.8	-1.0	-1.0
2022	-1.0	-0.9

The ONI is one measure of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation,

(CPC)

Vagaries' Views: 

Bay Low expected around 5th May, South - East of Andaman. Expected to deepen to DD/Cyclone and move North..

Possibly can usher the South West Monsoon into Southern Andamans by 9th May.

Kerala it seems can expect SWM early, by last week of May.

Summary:

Mascrene High : +

Cross Equatorial Winds: +

Seasonal Low: Normal

ITCZ: Normal

ENSO: Going towards Neutral

Bay Low +

This estimate is based absolutely on the situation as it shows and stands today.
Things, if and when they change (drastically) will be posted and Vagaries readers will be kept well informed, of any variation in the forecast.
These are my personal views, and should not be depended upon commercially or otherwise.  They may differ from other models.

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{Note on Heat Comparison}

〔{Below stats are just to show it's been hot several times in Indian Sub -Continent... This year (2022) is hot, but not rare... No panic... 

2017, Barmer had approached 46 c and recorded min temp above 30 c. April heat records had tumbled at many locations in the subcontinent. On 19th April 2017, first ever 50 c temperature in April in Asia has been recorded at Larkana (Sindh).
Temperatures of more than 45 c had already been recorded in many states of India . Even at Srinagar (Kashmir),Shimla (Himachal) temperatures  approached around 29 c in April 2017 . Delhi AP was 44.9 c on 20th April 2017.

In 2017,  Most of India was in the 4-7c above normal range and pockets shooting to 15 c above normal ...

Earlier than normal,the night temperatures had also crossed the 30c mark ! Barmer in Rajasthan recorded 30.4c as minimum on 15th April ,Kurnool (Andhra) saw a low of 31 c on 19th morning and Jhansi (UP) saw a low of 31.6 c on 21st morning.
Jaipur,Kota,Bundi,Alwar,Bikaner,Churu,Pilani (Rajasthan), Cuddapah(Andhra) saw lows of/above 30 c on 21st April 2017 morning.

Comparison with previous years shows the difference this year. In 2010, the first 45c touched on 10th. April, and on the same day Nagpur was 44c, Delhi 42.8c. Soon on 15 th April 2010,  Nawabshah (Pakistan) soared to 47c, Simla to 28.2c on 16th, Ganganagar, Akola and Hissar to to 46c. 

But, in 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014, till date, temperatures were  yet to reach 45c anywhere in the Sub-Continent . 

2015...Into the 3rd. week of April , we had seen 48c in Pakistan on 19th April in Larkana,and 46.5c in Moen Jo Daro. In India had just topped 44.6c in Barmer on 19th April.

2016....touched 46c in Bankura on 16th April...and was constantly hot in Eastern region with almost daily ,a place touching 46c.. Bhubaneshwar and Titlagarh in India and Dadu in Pakistan had touched 46c. Several large regions in Vidharbh, Telengana and MP were in the 44/43c range.}〕

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