Monday, August 15, 2016

Posted Monday Night (15th Aug):

1. BB-8 forms in North Bay South of Bangladesh.Tracking West initially to cross Odisha coast by Tuesday Night.

2. Meanwhile, Monsoon axis now in the Northern Parts Passing From Pak Punjab thru U.P. and into BB-8. 
Hence, very Low amounts of rainfall, except in U.P./M.P.region on Monday 15th (Due to an embedded UAC in the axis). 

3. Windy conditions in Delhi NCR on Tuesday (NW winds).

4. Rains persisting in East M.P. and Heavy rains in Odisha from Tuesday evening.

INDIA ..STATE CAPITALS /U.T s ..RAIN IN mms  ( 1 JUN -15 AUG 2016)

  • MUMBAI (HIGHEST : VIHAR .. 3300 mms)
  • PASSIGHAT (ARUNACHAL) ..1724 mms


Nilesh Ladhad said...

Sir," tracking west initially" means chances of BB8 going to north?

vikas hunk gay said...

when indore and ujjain get good showers in coming days??

Sarfaraj khan said...

what will be your forecast for Mumbai region for next 1 week ??

NilaY Wankawala said...

Credit: Australian Government, Bureau of Meterology

Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 16 August 2016

The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.

La Niña WATCH remains; negative Indian Ocean Dipole weakens
The tropical Pacific Ocean persists at neutral El Niño–Southern Oscillation levels. However, the possibility of a weak La Niña in 2016 remains. In the Indian Ocean, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) continues, but has weakened in recent weeks. The current event peaked in July as the strongest negative IOD event in at least 50 years of record.

Climate models indicate the negative IOD will continue to steadily weaken over the southern hemisphere spring. This means its influence on Australian rainfall may lessen in the coming months. Rainfall has been well above average for large parts of Australia since May 2016—which is a typical rainfall pattern observed during negative IOD events. During negative IOD events, southern Australia typically experiences above average winter and spring rainfall and cooler than average daytime temperatures. Northern Australia often experiences warmer than usual day and night-time temperatures.

In the Pacific Ocean, only two of eight international climate models monitored by the Bureau indicate La Niña is likely to develop during the austral spring, with two more indicating a possible late-forming event in summer. The remaining models suggest neutral or near-La Niña conditions. A La Niña WATCH remains, but if La Niña does develop it is likely be weak.

During La Niña, eastern Australia typically experiences above average spring rainfall, with the first rains of the wet season often arriving earlier than normal in northern Australia. Some La Niña-like effects can still occur even if thresholds are not met.

Next update expected on 30 August 2016

sset said...

very interesting facts

BB 18 A Low expected near the Andaman Islands by  Monday 5th. System can strengthen to a depression or cyclone over the Bay of Bengal before...