| MONSOON REPORT (01-7-2016 TO 31-7-2016) | |
| TOTAL ALL INDIA RAINFALL (as on 31-7-2016) | 454.7 mm |
| SEASON +/- | +0.4% |
| TO ACHIEVE BY 30TH SEPTEMBER required per day-------> | mm |
| MINIMUM 700 mm | 4.02 |
| AVERAGE 890 mm | 7.14 |
| MAXIMUM 1100 mm | 10.58 |
| CURRENT RAINFALL PER DAY | 7.45 mm |
| JULY RAINFALL (2016) | 309.3 mm |
| AVERAGE JULY RAINFALL (1966 TO 2015) | 281.6 mm |
| SURPLUS # | +9.8% |
| TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS MONTH | mm |
| KONKAN & GOA | 1322.50 |
| COASTAL KARNATAKA | 774.30 |
| SHWB & SIKKIM | 713.40 |
| ARUNACHAL PRADESH | 632.80 |
| EAST MADHYA PRADESH | 549.10 |
| BOTTOM FIVE SUBDIVISIONS THIS MONTH | mm |
| RAYALASEEMA | 130.90 |
| COASTAL ANDHRA PRADESH | 126.80 |
| SAURASHTRA & KUTCH | 109.60 |
| TAMILNADU & PONDICHERY | 86.70 |
| WEST RAJASTHAN | 80.00 |
| TOP FIVE SUBDIVISIONS ABOVE NORMAL THIS MONSOON | |
| RAYALASEEMA | 60% |
| WEST MADHYA PRADESH | 37% |
| VIDARBHA | 36% |
| EAST MADHYA PRADESH | 35% |
| EAST RAJASTHAN | 34% |
| BOTTOM FIVE SUBDIVISIONS BELOW NORMAL THIS MONSOON | |
| KERALA | -25% |
| ASSAM & MEGHALAYA | -26% |
| HIMACHAL PRADESH | -27% |
| GUJARAT REGION | -39% |
| SAURASHTRA & KUTCH | -49% |
| TOP FIVE STATES THIS MONTH | mm |
| DADAR & NAGAR HAVELI (UT) | 1126.40 |
| GOA | 964.50 |
| MEGHALAYA | 708.10 |
| ARUNACHAL PRADESH | 632.80 |
| MANIPUR | 627.30 |
| BOTTOM FIVE STATES THIS MONTH | mm |
| PUNJAB | 140.80 |
| CHANDIGARH (UT) | 131.10 |
| ANDHRA PRADESH | 128.50 |
| TAMIL NADU | 87.00 |
| PONDICHERRY (UT) | 19.80 |
| TOP FIVE STATES ABOVE NORMAL THIS MONSOON | |
| MADHYA PRADESH | 36% |
| TAMIL NADU | 35% |
| ANDHRA PRADESH | 31% |
| MAHARASHTRA | 22% |
| DELHI (UT) | 17% |
| BOTTOM FIVE STATES BELOW NORMAL THIS MONSOON | |
| CHANDIGARH (UT) | -34% |
| NAGALAND | -38% |
| MEGHALAYA | -41% |
| GUJARAT | -44% |
| PONDICHERRY (UT) | -47% |
| TOP TEN DISTRICTS THIS MONTH | mm |
| EAST KHASI HILLS (meghalaya) | 2579.80 |
| LOWER DIBANG VALLEY (arunachal pradesh) | 1813.60 |
| RATNAGIRI (maharashtra) | 1693.70 |
| RAIGARH (maharashtra) | 1386.10 |
| EAST GARO HILLS (meghalaya) | 1374.80 |
| SINDHUDURG (maharashtra) | 1254.90 |
| CHIRANG (assam) | 1227.40 |
| JALPAIGURI (west bengal) | 1218.20 |
| EAST SIANG (arunachal pradesh) | 1207.10 |
| DARJEELING (west bengal) | 1184.20 |
| BOTTOM TEN DISTRICTS THIS MONTH | mm |
| RAMANATHAPURAM (tamil nadu) | 25.90 |
| JAISELMER (rajasthan) | 25.20 |
| TIRUNELVELI (tamil nadu) | 25.20 |
| NAGAPATTINAM (tamil nadu) | 24.20 |
| PUDUCHERY (pondicherry) | 20.10 |
| TIRUPPUR (tamil nadu) | 20.00 |
| KARAIKAL (pondicherry) | 19.30 |
| LAHUL&SPITI (himachal pradesh) | 19.10 |
| TUTICORIN (tamil nadu) | 11.90 |
| LEH AND LADAKH (jammu & kashmir) | 2.30 |
| TOTAL ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL DAYS this month | 17 (55%) |
| TOTAL BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL DAYS this month | 14 (45%) |
| # IMD figures are different as this is 50 year average | source -IMD |
Monday, August 01, 2016
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Resultant rains in Chattisgarh 👇
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Pune recorded 87 mm ending 8.30am today. With this achieved 1000 mm mark! Seasonal Rainfall stands on 1018 mms now. Last night Widespread...
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Posted Tuesday 24th Morning: Pune region lashed by strong Thundershowers overnight: Rainfall: Talegaon 73 mms, Welu 60 mms, Pune City 56...
34 comments:
Superb presentation with intricate details...Excellent work ...Vagaries is the only site with such details
Rajesh sir- will be the low become more marked and travel west wards towards Maharashtra and Gujarat with heavy rains?
Thanks, nice info
I feel till morning the rain amount could be 250 -300 mm. Rains are nonstop..the intensity has gone down though.
Within no time score card is ready. Such a great work. Superb.
Heavy rain in Nashik region possible?
bhopal getting heavy rain ending 42 mm on 8:30 am today. look like a week with lot of heavy rain to offer due to low pressure area in bay
Concise & very well compiled and informative !
Thanks a lot for such detailed info and clear presentation, as always!
This is how yesterday's thunderstorm skipped Bhubaneswar Imd observatory area and pounded other parts of the district.. Rainfall ending at 8.30am today:-
Bhubaneswar (imd)-2mm(narrow escape)
Bologarh-82mm
Balianta-70mm
Tangi-51mm
Balipatna-37mm
Chilika-28mm
Thunderstorm alert for coastal and interior Odisha:-
After 50 deaths and 100's of injuries due to lightning in coastal Odisha,today also people should be alert for such intense thundering event as the CAPE and Li Is too high..
Konkan - maharashtra lows are consistently alternating Arabian sea UAC followed by Bay lows since june. Also UAC over Arabian sea are mostly over MAHA/GUJ region - guess that is reason coastal KAR and KER are having only 2 digit/moderate rains since june- this is not good for Cauvery - unless until we have break monsoon then maybe monsoon will revive over coastal KAR/KER - this was my previous observations.
Thane region > 2200mm since june. Today 24 hrs rain exceeds 175mm....
Wen would rain ease in mumbai
My area in Mumbai (Goregaon) highest in whole Mumbai with 267 mm yesterday
PRESS RELEASE
New Delhi, 1st August, 2016
Earth System Science Organization (ESSO)
Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES)
India Meteorological Department
Long Range Forecast for the Rainfall during Second Half (August –September) of the 2016 Southwest Monsoon and Updates for the Seasonal Forecasts
Highlights:
Quantitatively, the rainfall over the country as a whole during the second half of the season is likely to be 107% of LPA with a model error of ±8%.
The rainfall during August is likely to be 104 ± 9% of LPA as was forecasted in June
The season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of LPA with a model error of ±4% as was forecasted in June.
1. Background and details of the 5- Parameter Operational Model
The forecast for the rainfall over the country as a whole for the second half of the 2016 monsoon season has been prepared using a Principal Component Regression (PCR) Model based on 5 predictors with a model error of 8% of long period average (LPA). The LPA of the rainfall over the country as whole for the second half of the monsoon season (August to September) based on the 1951-2000 period is 43.5cm (49% of the average season rainfall) with a coefficient of variation (C.V) of 15%.
2. SST conditions in the Pacific and the Indian Oceans
The strong El Nino event of 2015-16 ended in May, 2016 and currently ENSO neutral conditions are prevailing. Latest forecast from ESSO-IMD-IITM coupled model indicates strong probability (70%) of neutral ENSO conditions to continue during the remaining part of the monsoon season. However, some of the global models suggest development of weak La Nina conditions in the later part of the monsoon season. Over the Indian Ocean, there is 40% probability of the current negative Indian Ocean Dipole conditions to continue during the remaining part of the monsoon season.
3. Monsoon Mission Experimental Coupled Dynamical Forecast System
The experimental forecast based on the coupled dynamical model forecasting system suggest that rainfall during second half (August to September) of the 2016 monsoon season averaged over the country as a whole is likely to be 103% of long period model average.
4. Forecast for the Rainfall during the Second Half of the 2016 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall and Updates for the Seasonal Forecasts
(a) Rainfall over the country as a whole during second half of southwest monsoon season (August to September) is most likely to be above normal (>106% of LPA) with a probability of 55%.
(b) Quantitatively, the rainfall for the country as a whole during second half of the season is likely to be 107% of LPA with a model error of ±8%.
(c) The rainfall during August is likely to be 104 ± 9% of LPA as was forecasted in June.
(d) The season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% ±4% of LPA as was forecasted in June.
Highlights:
Quantitatively, the rainfall over the country as a whole during the second half of the season is likely to be 107% of LPA with a model error of ±8%.
The rainfall during August is likely to be 104 ± 9% of LPA as was forecasted in June
The season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of LPA with a model error of ±4% as was forecasted in June.
@ Cumulus Arjun: No, that Goregaon is not of Mumbai. But it is Goregaon village from Ambernath taluka, Thane district and is just 5kms South of Badlapur
continuous light to moderate rainfall in Nashik since 3 pm.
Shivkumar Mogul: Rains expected in Nasik on Tuesday also. Good showers in region on Tuesday.
Looks like Mumbai lakes will get filled in a week or so, 3 out of 7 already filled
Rajesh sir waiting for ur update for 3rd to 6th aug
Rajesh sir,
What prospects for rainfall in Punjab over the next few days?
Thanks,
Great work by Pradeep ji - even though from south, with great precision has captured all suburbs of Mumbai/Thane/Navi Mumbai
Nashik lashed by rain received 102 mm till 8:30 am today. Godavari river again flooded. still heavy rain continue.
Today's lake levels
Bhatsa - 813/942
Middle Vaitarna - 157/195
Upper Vaitarna - 236/331
Modak Sagar - 129/129
Tansa - 145/145
Vihar - 28/28
Tulsi - 8/8
4 out of 7 lakes full. The way Bhatsa is filling up it is a matter of a few days. Just yesterday it increased by 86Mcum. Just 262Mcum to go for all lakes to fill.
Credit Australian government Bureau of meteorology
Latest ENSO Wrap-Up issued 2 August 2016
The latest ENSO Wrap-Up and Climate Model Summary are now available on the Bureau's website.
La Niña WATCH remains, while strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole continues
Despite some cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean surface waters, ENSO indicators remain neutral and well shy of La Niña thresholds. In contrast, a strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event continues, with ocean temperature well above average in the eastern Indian Ocean and below average near Africa.
All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the negative IOD will persist until the end of spring, which historically has brought increased rainfall to southern Australia. Sea surface temperatures have cooled slightly in the tropical Pacific over the past fortnight. Some atmospheric indicators have shifted slightly towards La Niña thresholds, but all remain within neutral bounds.
All climate models indicate more cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely, but only two of eight models exceed La Niña thresholds for an extended period. A La Niña WATCH (indicating a 50% chance of La Niña in 2016) remains, but if La Niña does develop it would most likely be weak.
May to July 2016 was Australia's third-wettest May–July on record. During negative IOD events, southern Australia typically experiences above average winter–spring rainfall and cooler than average daytime temperatures, with warmer daytime and night-time temperatures in northern Australia.
Mumbai soon to touch 2000mm marks (on an average 1000mm every month). Harnai likely to cross 5000mm mark. Mahabaleshwar receives 400mm rain yesterday.
Seems MAHA is bent on capturing entire rain across country.
Kerala dry conditions -> paddy,spices,coffee impacted. SriLanka same no rain since May.
http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/tp-kerala/less-rain-is-pain-for-farmers/article8919901.ece
what is Rainy day record this year till now?
GUJ joins MAHA for regular 3 digit rains.... (in cms today)
DHARAMPUR (DIST VALSAD) 35, PARDI (DIST VALSAD) 31, VAPI (DIST VALSAD) 29, DAMAN (DIST DAMAN) 27, KAPRADA (DIST VALSAD) 25, NANIPALSON (DIST VALSAD) 22, SILVASSA (DIST DADARA & NAGAR HAVELI) 21, MADHBUN (DIST DADARA & NAGAR HAVELI) 18, KHERGAM (DIST NAVSARI) 16, UMERGAM (DIST VALSAD) 16, WAGHAI (DIST DANGS) 13, GANDEVI (DIST NAVSARI) 12, CHIKHLI (DIST NAVSARI) 11, VANSDA (DIST NAVSARI) 10, SUBIR (DIST DANGS) 10
poor rains in coastal KAR... Mahabaleshwar along with Gaint Harnai take over Augumbe..
Bhatsa dam all 5 gates are open, discharge started, fills 92 percent will overflow anytime
Nashik 153mm till 5.30pm today in last 9hrs !! Seasonal total stands on 785mm till 5.30pm..
With this crossed annual normal average of 680mm !!
Remember Nashik was just on 12mm till 30th June 2016 which was in huge deficit by 88% & now jumps into excess category so we can term it as Vagaries of the Weather
Nashik recorded massive 189mm rainfall till 8.30pm today in last 12hrs !! With this broken the all time 24hrs highest rainfall for Aug month of 168mm which was recorded in Aug 1968 !!
I agree with SSET. No rain at all in July for coastal Karnataka.But, Konkan has received excess rains. Not sure If it could be due to climate change.
Mighty Godavari river's origin Trimbakeshwar recorded 206mm till 8.30pm today in last 12hrs !
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