Tuesday, August 20, 2013

Mid Day Report on Thursday:

BB-10 weakens as expected to 998 mb, and tracked slightly W/NW. Lies over 23N and 83E. 

Weakening fast and bringing rains to MP and adjoining Gujarat, E.Rajasthan and Northern Mah regions.
As explained, precipitation decreasing considerably in the Eastern rear of system. Bengal, Orissa and Entire East coast upto Tamil Nadu gets much reduced rains.
Delhi continues to get sporadic spotty showers, some localised heavy for a day more.
Western End Seasonal Low in Pakistan stands firm,at 998 mb (slightly weakened).

The other Low, at 1000 mb, in the Far East is crossing the Vietnam coast at 20N. Will travel along axis.

Metro City rainfall till 8.30 am Thursday

Kolkata: Alipore 11 mms, DumDum 12 mms Avg 11.5 mms.

Chennai : Nungam 6 mms and Meena 11 mms Avg: 8 mms

New Delhi : Sjung 4 mms and Palam 1 mm Avg 3 mms. Overall NCR region avg 4 mms.
Arpit and Vineet (Meerut) report heavy rainfall from Ghaziabad and Meerut, and since we have no recording at this palce, nearby palaces readings are available...Indirapuram (10 kms SW from Ghaziabad) received 67 mms, while Hindon, (12 kms NW from Ghaziabad) recieved 5 mms.Meerut measured 45 mms.

Mumbai: Upto 0.5 mms in both stations. Vagaries recorded 5 mms.

Wednesday Mid Night Posting:

BB-10 has moved NW, and was positioned at 23N and 83E as on Wednesday night. Still at 994 mb, it has resulted in strong gusty NW winds in Vidharbh. The SW and W quadrant is still showing convection.
Expected to weaken and track W/NW along the axis.

Many places in Jharkand and adjoining Chattisgarh and MP received good rainfall. Parts of Vidharbh too got fairly good rainfall on Wednesday.
Several places in Punjab Pakistan received some rainfall on Wednesday.

Storm "Trami" in the Pacific is now at 970 hpa strength, and just North of Taiwan. It has produced a strong trough in a SW direction, and has an embedded Low "pulse" at 998 mb and 107E and 20N, off Northern Vietnam Coast.. Keeping a track on this as it moves Westwards along the axis.

 Posted Wednesday Mid Day IST: Mid Day Report of Wednesday:

BB-10 moves NW and currently at 23.5N and 85E. At 994 mb, and entrenched in monsoon axis. Expected to track along axis. 
1. If tracks along axis and moves NW, may create a Break Monsoon " conditions in Peninsula.
2. If tracks West, possibly bring rains to MP and Central India. 
Next 12 hrs will determine course.
In any case, associated UAC will bring rains to SW and S of BB-10.
Westerly jet streams weaken in Sindh region, keeping hopes alive of light rains in SE Sindh and Coast.

First  step for NEM is the first withdrawal of SWM. So, countdown can start only when the SWM "obliges" to start withdrawing ! 

Posted on Tuesday Night@ 8.30 pm IST
As mentioned Tuesday morning, Heavy Rains reported from North Orissa and adjoining Gangetic West Bengal regions. 
Kolkata, Bankura, Balasore (67 mms) and Ranchi has received heavy rains.

Heavy rains from region in mms: Deogarh 220, Batagaon 200, Durgachak 172, Diamond Harbour 171, Jagatballarpur 150, Chandanpur  (Orissa)126,Keon jargarh (Orissa) 95 mms, Bangiriposhi (Orissa) 88 mms, Baliguda (Orissa) 70 mms, Sambalpur 29 mms.

Now, BB-10 at 22N and 87E , now at 996 mb and has formed a trough off the East coast. Closely formed isobars south of the system will bring very windy conditions in the Southern quadrant. 
Consequently, there can be heavy precipitation East and North and West quadrants. Intense moisture will bring heavy thunder showers in East MP, Seoni, Shahdol, Umeria and Jabalpur. Hoshangabad too can get heavy rains. Chattisgarh and in Amravati, Akola, Buladana and Jalgoan Districts of Mahrashtra.

Rainfall decreasing from W.Bengal and Orissa regions.

2013 SWM Rainfall comparison of Rajasthan with Tamil Nadu...on Rohit's Page


Abdul Jabbar said...

Rajesh sir would it effect SE sindh?

Abdul Jabbar said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Abhis said...

Rajeshji, there is hardly any rain in August in Madhya maharashtra around Pune region and I guess in other regions too. Is this the effect of Negative IOD finally coming into play? Would it rain in Aug and Sept? Or there will be another drought?

Vinod Desai said...

The way August month has been,I doubt if Mumbai can cross 3000 mm this year.

Abhijit Modak said...

Today for the first time after monsoon arrival , the whole Thane district tahsils is at 0mm ending 8.30am today !!

Unknown said...

Vasai has turned dry, hot and very humid.looks like thursday n friday should bring in some heavy showers

Rajesh said...

Abdul Jabbar: There may be some light rains in SE sindh and coast from associated UAC.

Abhish: Madhya Mah seems to have a dry spell due to the conditions of axis position and Depression. May continue , as system moves NW..but Northern regions may gwt rains.

Mohsin mulla said...

rajesh bhai,
monsoon in west coast including mumbai will peak once again in september for sure.. At the moment there is no system formed in north arabian sea or central arabian sea..off shore also weak in konkan coast..tells us your view on that...

sset said...

Abhish speak bit auspicious - TN,entire Rayalseema,SE interior KAR is yet to receive rain!! Negative IOD means no NEM?? MAHA is in most comfort position all places have received 90-95% rains. Vikhroli got good rains today.

I am sorry yet to read vageries 2012 withdrawl parameters - whole solution is available - need to understand.

sset said...

Again Rohits analysis proves. (a)Almost all places over RAJ (including west RAJ) have received more rains than South east Karnataka, Rayalseema, interior western Tamil Nadu. Interesting stuff is all these regions are close. (b) Western RAJ usually receives more rains in AUG/SEPT/OCT (gain more rain) (c)NEM is highly unpredictable and deficient. Whole thing again proves India driest and most arid zones is South India (above regions) - geography needs to be redefined.

Delhi rains may cross 1000mm this year?? BANG(320mm),MYS(150mm)(still stuck no rains in BANG/MYS).

Rajesh said...

Abhish: Interior regions will get rains again, and also in withdrawal stage with thunder showers.
IOD factor for monsoon performance is not proven. I feel it is very recent, and cannot be confirmed as "causation"...IOD has to be studied over several more years still...

Moshin: The west coast trough is weak now. But monsoon will revive to normal rains in september, and withdrawal stage will get heavy thunder showers next month.

sset: Blore as u say has received 320 mms, more than normal by 80 mms...quite good. In fact August normally is a drier month

SVT said...

This got to be one of the driest August ever for Mumbai. Hardly any heavy rain day except 2nd august. I wonder whats lowest rainfall for month of August.

Unknown said...

plenty moisture bearing clouds in the south east arabian sea

Rajesh said...

svt: Driest August was in 1943 with 83 mms at Colaba. and Scruz saw lowest rains for Aug in 1972 with 109 mms.
Tyronne and MZ: Lower speed and weakening of system mostly due to md level shear, and drier UTH in the west...
Pavan: Sorry, similar low rains for Pune...

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