Friday, July 27, 2012

Synoptic Situation as on Thursday,26th, Night:

The Monsoon Trough runs through from Pakistan Punjab in the west thru Rajasthan (Jaipur) ,North MP and Jharkhand.
As a result, precipitation was fairly active from North Pakistan and the region North of the axis. In HP, Kangra recieved a heavy downpour of 115 mms. Utteranchal recieved very good rains and Jharkhand too had good rains last 2 days.
This was a result of an embedded UAC in the axis over Jharkhand.

Weekend Estimate: Friday, 27th, Saturday 28th and Sunday 29th July:

Friday: The Monsoon trough remains roughly in the same position. The off shore trough off the west coast remains weak.
Rainfall will be heavy in Western MP. Rainfall will also be concentrated in West UP, and the Delhi-Kanpur corridor could recieve some heavy showers. North AP coast, around Srikakulam and Vizag regions get precipitation.
Precipitation along the west coast will be medium, stations getting between 20-40 mms.

Saturday: Rainfall will be concentrated in Eastern Rajasthan and Central UP regions. Jaipur gets a good thundershower.

Sunday: In all probibility, an embedded UAC in the axis could bring very heavy downpours to Eastern and Southern Rajasthan regions. The Eastern end of the trough may host an UAC b Sunday.
Parts of UP could get good rains.
West coast rains decrease, as trough weakens.

On all 3 days, Barring Eastern Vidharbha and Konkan, all Maharashtra and Gujarat remain without any meaningfull rains.

Vagaries had estimated a rise in rainfall in the North of the country in its last 3 day forecast. And increase it was, with Sialkot getting a good 129 mms.

But next 3 days, as we see no system moving into Pakistan. 
Friday/Saturday/Sunday will be almost dry and without any meaningfull rains throughout the country. Most cities, including Karachi, Hyderabad and Islamabad will be dry with no rains these 3 days. They may see a rise of around 2c in the day temperatures also.

City Forecasts for Friday/Saturday/Sunday:

Friday: Partly cloudy with sunny spells. Rise in day temperatures. 3/4 showers in different parts of city. Rain Amount: Around 15 mms.
Satellite towns too will get 3/4 showers in the day amounting to 15-20 mms.

Saturday: Partly cloudy with a couple of showers in different areas. Rain Amount: 5-10 mms.
Proportionately less rain in outer towns too.

Sunday: Cloudy with 3/4 showers. Showers scattered in the day.Rain Amount: 10-15 mms.

Friday/Saturday/Sunday: Cloudy with light rain in parts of city. Do not visulaise any substantial increase or momentum in rains. Rain Amounts: Upto 5 mms/day.

Friday/Saturday: Partly cloudy with a couple of medium showers, in parts. Rain Amount: 5 mms. 
Sunday: Cloudy with a few showers Rain Amount could be around 10-12 mms.

Delhi NCR:
Friday: Cloudy day. Periodical Showers will be heavy in many parts of the region, concentrating in the Eastern Parts like Noida and Faridabad. Rainfall Amount 15-25 mms.
Saturday/Sunday: Cloudy with a couple of afternoon showers in different parts. No substantial increase in rains, though a shower may be briefly heavy. Rain Amount: Upto 10 mms.

Bangalore, our readers mention, is recieving showers scattered in different areas of the city.
Friday/Saturday/Sunday: Cloudy, with a couple of showers in different parts of city. Again, no meaningfull increase could be foercasted now. Rain amounts: Upto 5 mms/day.

Chennai: Friday/Saturday/Sunday: Hot and humid day. Sunday Thundershower likely in some parts by evening/night. They tend to drift in from the West, and could be heavy in some patches. Sunday Rain amounts :5-10 mms.

Friday/Saturday/Sunday: Partly cloudy with light rain in some parts. Rain Amount 5-7 mms/day

Mumbai Deluge 26th July 2005:
Meteorologically, how did it Happen ?...Those Interested see Mumbai Page ....

All India deficinecy till 26th July is -22%. End of July we will analyse the deficit and position of major cities..


Abhijit Modak said...

No spell in night. So past 24hrs rain is 10mm in Badlapur

Vijayanand said...

Reports are coming in that bangalore-mangalore road is blocked because of land slides in shiradi ghats. Also subramanya to uppinangadi road is blocked as river Kumaradhara is over flowing.
Appears like ghat area and some area in dakshin karnataka received heavy rains yesterday.

Vijayanand said...

Cloudy cool morning in bangalore. Yesterday North bangalore got good rains. South bangalore got only drizzles :(

Pradeep said...

Maharashtra battered yesterday...

Heavy Weights got massive rains ending 8.30 am today

Patagon - 225 mm today and season total 2801 mm
Tillari - 198 and 2063
Radhanagari - 163 and 1838
Doodhganga - 154 and 1322
Kasari - 140 and 2410

Anonymous said...

Thank Pradeep , these are critical catchment area of Krishna, hopefully will raise water levels of Koyna, ALmatti and Malaprabha

Vivek said...

Heavy rain in Gurgaon. Been raining for last 2 hrs. Will keep the blog posted.


venkatesh said...

Malnad region in south interior karnataka seems to be recieveing heavy rains in past three days.Todays reading(cms):
Agumbe 17
Sringeri and Kammaradi (both Chikmagalur dt) 13
Talaguppa and Thirthahalli (both Shimoga dt) 12
Jayapura (Chikmagalur dt) 11
Linganamakki (Shimoga dt), Kalasa (Chikmagalur dt) 10
Sagar (Shimoga dt) 7
Madikeri(kodagu) --6
Bhagmandala and madapura(kodagu) --- 5

Abhijit Modak said...

@Rajesh Sir. Whether UAC from Bay entered in MP ? Latest sat image showing dense clouding over MP ! And also looking like slowly moving west towards Gujarat side as if now ! So any chances of Rain intensity increasing for North Konkan in next 48hrs due to latest activity seen over MP area ?

pavan said...

pradeep please get the rainfall data for dandeli in uttarkannada in karnataka for this year yesterday it recorded 229mm of rain

emkay said...

So Karnataka (except North) received very good showers !!

Arpit Sharma said...

No rain in Ghaziabad till this time.Gurgaon is receiving heavy rain as earlier and ghaziabad dry as earlier no change.Seems this is the worst year in the history of Ghaziabad.

Pavan said...

Pl visit

Rajesh said...

Abhijit: Since you are picking up on meteorology, i am giving you this explanation.
1. Which UAC are you refering to ? Has any UAC been mentioned in vagaries as having entered from the bay ? No. There is a mention of UAC later on Sunday...that too maybe...
2.Remember, if there is any thing of that sort, be rest assured readers will be surely kept abreast with the latest.
Old timers with vagaries know, that any vagaries forecast remains valid unless changed susequently.
Now, Friday forecast mentions of heavy rains in west MP. Yes, there were heavy rains in Itarsi/Khandwa/Ratlam region on Friday.
This is due to the embedded UAC (not taken as UAC normally but part of axis) in the axis. Please read thru the forecast put up for next 3 days and figure out the connections....
All readers, please be free to ask and question.....but please read thru forecasts and explantions carefully...try not to get confused.

emkay: Actually in Karnataka there were good rains in isolated pockets.. like Kollur 19 cms, Sringeri 13 cms and Sirsi got around 12 cms, mostly from Uttar Kannada..of course we leave out hot spots like Agumbe..

Vivek/Arpit: SO Delhi NCR has started getting showers Friday..

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir.. Thank You very Much for explanation. Actually I got excited by seeing some Circular formation and clouds also were in circular path across West MP region and were slowly moving in west direction ! So asked you ! Will surely again try to understand forecast put up for next 3 days and also will try to figure out the connections !

Vivek said...

Yes sir :)

Good rains today. Hope this good spell continues.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. But I think From 29 July 2012 Sunday , North Konkan will get increase in rain activity(So good amount rains coming from Sunday night up to Tuesday evening for North Konkan. ) Even some benefits for Gujarat too ! As I think that MP area clouds(or embedded UAC) moving west over North Gujarat region and continuing moving west up to Gujarat/Pakistan border by Monday night ! All This above are just my (observation)predication's so it may be go wrong also !

Arpit Sharma said...

No rain in Ghaziabad today infact from the past 20 days.

Abhijit Modak said...

I have made some own predication's on mine previous comment by doing some observations . But it may go wrong also. So sorry in advance..

Rajesh said...

Abhijit: You dont have to be sorry must study the scene and situation and make your forecast..its the testing time for you...and if you think it ok, i will check now, the clouds due to the axis UaC is South of the actual UAC, and will make it into E.Rajasthan as mentioned by me..thru error of typo, i had typed West Rajasthan when I meant East..corrected I was saying, it will move into E.Raj and Jaipur area, where the axis is positioned.

Ok..another question for you...why do you feel the N.Konkan region will get rains from Monday ?

vivek: Nosubstantial increase as mentioned in vagaries for Sat..but rain area moves into E.Raj and Jaipur regions.

Arpit Sharma said...

Sir can u plz tell me why western regions like Gurgaon receiving more rains than eastern regions like Ghaziabad???

Shitij said...

Partly cloudy sky with some sunny spells. Today weather was more clear and humid as compared to previous days.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. I feel increase in rains for North Konkan from Sunday night till Tuesday because that embedded UAC will linger over MP,Gujarat & Rajashthan Border till next 24hrs, then westerly winds might change that UAC direction towards SW side then clouds system might move into Gulf of Khambat then towards arabian sea of Coastal Saurashtra. And in this process moisture incursion from Arabian sea will bring rains to North Konkan belt I think so ! So I don't think it will go North Side ! Instead it will move towards WSW side !

Anonymous said...

Heavy rain lash south Chennai last night. 3-4 cms would have been recorded

Arpit Sharma said...

Overcast conditions here in Ghaziabad today. Hoping for some rain.

RK said...

Heavy Rain @ G.Noida since 10AM

Arpit Sharma said...

Light rain in ghaziabad now from the past 10 mins.

svt said...

Seems like Mumbai will get slightly more rain than your prediction on saturday n sunday. Btw are you still expecting bay low in first week of August & subsequent increase in rain in west coast?

RK said...

Rain has stopped here now....
I Hope the rains stay in Delhi-NCR for some days...
Rajesh, as always, your forecast is going correct for Delhi region....but why it is always scattered? one place getting heavy rain and other completely dry within small distance...are there any chances of widespread rains for the whole Delhi-NCR region in coming days? Any low/system coming our way in August?

junaid said...

@rajesh ,,,,,very heavy spell of rains have started from 2 pm at panvel!!!!contrary to forcast panvel experienced heavily overcast and cool weather since morning

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir.Even Badlapur received Heavy Spell just now and 10mm measured till now. So seems my predication of increase in rain activity for North Konkan from Sunday going in right direction ! I may be wrong or right that does not matter but we really needs rains to fill the dam and reserve the stock for whole next year.

Vijayanand said...

Sudden sharp spell in south bangalore. Bangalore to mangalore train has been cancelled due to landslide in shiradi ghats.

Rajesh said...

junaid: Good to hear from you after many days. Yes, weather conditions are not partly cloudy as i had put up for Mumbai (though Mumbai here is partly cloudy, and with sun spells). But end of the day, rain amounts may just about tally with forecast.
Vijayanand: was it in a small area ? A friend from airport says no rain ?
Abhijit: For the good, i too hope we get more rain from Sunday night .BTw, a system in the Northern Hemisphere would never move in a southerly direction..maybe in a rrarest of rare case (due to wind shear)...but otherwise never !

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. I don't mean to say it will move South but UAC will be quite stationery over west MP and westerly winds from Pakistan will not allow it to move North but might tilt it towards west or Southwest around Gulf of Khambhat! And due to stationery of UAC over west MP so moisture incursion may increase from Sunday over North Konkan so I think Increase in Rain activity for North Konkan till Tuesday ! And today too its effect are clear seen over North Konkan as system still stationery over West MP ! 15mm rain till now in Badlpaur from 8.30am today.

Anonymous said...

absolutely no rain in thane just 2mm....panvel rains just stopped at toll naka i guess....

sset said...

As Pradeep has shown Maharashtra coast figures - quite high!! - probably predictions were not indicated earlier - Most of the places are 2000 - 2500+ and beign mid way of monsoon - end of monsoon may see them 5000-5000+, well known places like Mumbai,Mahabaleshware,Pune got less rains but new places in south konkan are doing quiet well.

Why does a pressure over North Hemisphere move north and vice versa?

Bangalore it rained only for 2 minutes and has Rajesh has indicated - many places it was absent, probably some of the clouds showed some mercy???

Modak - thanks for Matheran train update. Infact they say from Panvel Ghandeshwar dam we can see misty mountains of Matheran- very sceneric. Now Kharghar hills are being developed as a tourist and shooting place - we can see creeks on one side and mountains another side. Next few years Navi Mumbai will become major tourist spot.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ sset. Even Badlapur city has Kondeshwar waterfalls very famous place just 7kms away from Railway station. Nice greenary , misty and treeking point too and sound of waterfall too amazing . It is an part of extended Matheran mountain ranges.

GSB said...

Interesting exchange between @Abhijit and @Rajesh sir!!

@Abhijit I think we have a lot to learn and it will take a few years for us (atleast this is what I think in my case) to reach even half the understanding he has. You know before discovering Vagaries I used to rely only on cloud cover to make some predictions .. and more than 80% of the time my predictions use to fall flat.. and some of friends and colleagues probably laughed behind my back about my failure rate..

But the very fact that you are keen to understand the process is healthy.. we should only keep in mind that @Rajesh sir is a giant in this field with lot of EXPERIENCE.. he is also kind enough to share this with us. In that respect we are lucky..

GSB said...

Good cloud cover in Thane and here in Godhbundar road entire day but very little rain..

Thane city 2.75 mm from oo am today and here at Godhbundar road probably slightly higher since we had a good spell of 10-15 mins in the afternoon..

Abhijit Modak said...

@ GSB. Very true said & totally agree on all your points ..We have a lot to learn and it will take a few years for me too,to reach even half the understanding Rajesh Sir has.

Anonymous said...

@sset It's because of the Coriolis force. You may Google/Wiki for it - You may also try and understand Rotational Mechanics in detail - Will explain how systems move (in Earth's accelerated frame of reference).

Vijayanand said...

Hi Rajesh,

Yes! The rain was only in jayanagar, jp nagar area of south bangalore. Very localised.

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