Tuesday, July 03, 2012

 East Gujarat Stations received good precipitation and some prominent places with their rainfall: Vadodara  100 mms, Padra  75 mms, Dholka  72 mms, a'Bad 35 mms, Dhandhuka  33mms. 
In Saurashtra Upleta 46 mms. Surat got 8 mms, and Umerpada recieved 32 mms.
Bharuch got 34 mms, with the seasons total at Bharuch showing 97 mms.

Rains till 8.30 am Wednesday: Alibag 138 mms, Ratnagiri 199 mms ,Roha 152 mms, 

Panvel and Thane readings of Wednesday  @ 8.30 am rain on Vagaries'Readings Page..
Check Mumbai Page for actual v/s Forecast 

Rains likely in coastal Pakistan and Karachi can receive showers. 

Mumbai got its predicted thundershower on Monday and Tuesday evening/nights. 
The actual v/s forecast is put up on Mumbai page and will be updated tomorrow morning taking into account today's rain. should be in the expected range till Wednesday morning. 

A minor vortex at 700 hps formed off Mumbai and cloudiness merging with the UAC moving from the East into the central regions. 

Today, Tuesday, Alibag measured 84 mms, and Ahmednagar received 46 mms of rain till 5.30pm. Much needed ! Igatpuri near Nasik managed 48 mms. 

Yesterday, Monsoon has moved into rest of MP and parts of UP.(Put up on Current Weather Page Yesterday).

Answer, or rather my opinion, to several queries on the wundermap showing intense cloud colour (pink) but no rainfall : Clouds swirling with the winds at various levels form multi layered clouds. The depth of the UAC descended to 850 hpa, and forming of 2/3 layered cloudings give different temperature signals to the satellite sensors. Its based on these sensors that the colour images are projected, with artificial colours of course. 

Pink colouration does signify high and dense clouds, cumulo-nimbus or even multi layered strato-cumulus. But NOT ALWAYS does it precipitate. Down on the ground, the region may show "ready to precipitate" conditions. But several and many factors are involved for the actual precipitation from cloud to ground. 
I have seen and noticed on several previous occasions the deep (coloured) cloud on any image, but no reports of precipitation. Just on the 1st of July, Saurashtra was "pink", but no rainfall !

These are just indicators, and for budding meteorologists this is an experiance and learning to make one's own judgement. It needs time and patience to understand and grasp the weather map.  

Mumbai Forecast:

Wednesday: Monsoonish like mentioned previously. Cloudy to overcast morning with a couple of showers. Intensity of rains can increase by afternoon. Thundershowers likely early afternoon/evening. Rain amount: 55-60 mms.

Thursday: Cloudy with occasional showers. Rainfall will be lesser than Wednesday, but scattered through the day. Rain amount: 25 m mms.

Friday: Almost cloudy day with several showers, some heavy. Rain amount 35 mms.
Mumbai Water Storage as on 3rd July updated on Mumbai Page

Wednesday/Thursday: Cloudy day. A moderate shower expected in some parts. Light rains will be occasional in the day. Rain Amount 10 mms.

Friday: Lesser rainfall than Thursday.

Surat: A heavy thundershower likely by afternoon/evening. Rain amount: 30-35 mms.
Thursday: Thunderclouds could develop by evening and very cloudy by evening. Some showers, could be heavy. Rain amount: 20 mms.


NT said...

The Mumbai Airport data by NOAA now shows 'Light rain with Thunder'. Though I don't see any lightning nor hear any thunder at this point in Juhu.

Speaking about the much needed rain in Ahmednagar, Kopargaon town in that district is facing severe water cuts with water from local municipality being made available only once in 10 days!! Hope Northern limits of the district also recieve good rains soon.

Meanwhile, an intense Thunderstorm (cloud tops of -80 degrees) is seen approaching Eastern Gujarat. I think the towns of Dahod, Godhra and even Vadodara may recieve heavy thunder showers tonight.

GSB said...

All the fans of Vagaries...

I have done some number crunching and come up with these interesting figures....

Overall monsoon in India was the WORST in these 10 years (last one being the worst i.e. 1972 with 697.4mm rainfall)..

1901, 109.1, 241.4, 284.2, 121.9, 756.6
1951, 152.6, 248.4, 227.6, 120.6, 749.2
1911, 189.5, 158.5, 212.5, 183.1, 743.5
1965, 114.9, 282.6, 205.4, 135.4, 738.3
2002, 180.1, 146.2, 259.8, 151.2, 737.3
1918, 206.3, 180.4, 240.7, 109.1, 736.5
1979, 132.4, 264.2, 199.3, 128.9, 724.8
1905, 88.7, 252.5, 202.6, 174.6, 718.5
2009, 85.7, 280.6, 192.5, 139.4, 698.2
1972, 127.4, 215.6, 218.1, 136.3, 697.4

The BEST 10 years (Top one being the best 1917 with 1124.2mm rainfall)....


1917, 218.1, 279.3, 300.7, 283.1, 1124.2
1988, 165.8, 381.6, 325.1, 221.5, 1094.1
1961, 193.5, 345.9, 295.7, 243.1, 1078.2
1933, 220.8, 293.8, 328.2, 218.2, 1061
1916, 233.8, 301.5, 318.8, 202, 1056.1
1942, 187.4, 356.6, 303.3, 193.2, 1040.5
1959, 168.4, 374.3, 263.3, 230.7, 1036.7
1964, 179.8, 358.3, 288.4, 205, 1031.4
1958, 123.7, 326.1, 328.7, 234.5, 1012.9
1975, 173.8, 314.4, 296.6, 226.7, 1011.4

some important conclusions..

1917 the best was followed by 1918 the fifth worst year on record.

1916 and 1917 were the fifth best and THE best on record.

All the top ten are in the 20th century.

Two of the worst are in the 21st century.

1988 was the last year to figure in the top ten best list.

Four of the best top ten are clustered between 1958 and 1964.

Three of the worst are nearby between 1901 and 1911.

Tomorrow some more interesting numbers...

sset said...

Myself am in Navi Mumbai (Belapur). It has been raining non-stop entire night and continues now. Being staying Bangalore - where no rain for last 2 years - it is beautiful to see mumbai monsoon.

sset said...

Myself am in Navi Mumbai (Belapur). It has been raining non-stop entire night and continues now. Being staying Bangalore - where no rain for last 2 years - it is beautiful to see mumbai monsoon.

Abhijit Modak said...

@ Rajesh Sir. Thank you very much for providing me an knowledge and guiding on how to study satellite image and how the Clouds or overall parameters behaves as per different conditions each times. Will ask for more doubts when it arises in my mind.

Abhijit Modak said...

Here at Badlapur, Thane District Rain started from 4am early morning and noticed heavy spell between 5.30 to 7.30am. At Moment it's drizzling here. But there were no rains last night after 9pm onwards till today 4am(to the surprise Guru Purnima's full moon was shining here from 11pm to 1am last night!!).

Ganesh said...

The automatic weather stations of BMC are not accurate it seems..it was raining very heavily between 4-6 am and yet Deonar Station shows only 0.51mm rainfall . I bet it was it was more than 25 mm during that period.

emkay said...

Unusually Panvel started getting rains only early morning. A lull at around 0850 hrs. after which I had left for work. South Mumbai presently is just sprinkle of rains but cloudy nevertheless.

Bhavik said...

Expect very heavy rains in Mumbai till 3-4pm today decereasing thereafter in the evening. (since high tide is at 1pm there are chances of flooding)
Todays 24-hr rain will be more than 100mm

GSB said...

Thane rainfall till 12.30 pm in the afternoon is 80mm (for wednesday only from 00am).

Still raining moderate to heavy and looks good!!

junaid said...

@rajesh ths year i wasnt abke to see the ferocity of waterfalls in amboli apparently due to lack of rain!!! Frm the start of the seasonni have noticed that rains havent penetrated much beyond the coast!!! Also the rains at vengurla were unusual ,,day was cloudy wid sun trying to sneak out ,,,nd rains only during nyt nd after 7 ,,,only since last 2 days it was raining in the day!!!

Shitij said...

Why Surat is not getting rainfall? When I wake up at 8am sky was partly cloudy but as day progress clouds starts getting disappeared.At 2pm only 1 or 2 clouds can be seen in the sky but after 4pm weather has changed rapidly sky suddenly gets covered with dark black clouds. Without pouring a single drop of rain these clouds passed away. Mumbai is getting continuous heavy showers and even Ahemadabad and Vadodara is also receiving heavy showers. Why not Surat?

Shitij said...

At present Surat is getting some light showers

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