Thursday, September 17, 2009

Todays 925hpa streamline map is sufficient indication of the monsoon having shifted south, below 20N. Strong northerlies/north-westerlies are now pushing drier air southwards towards the peninsula regions.

With no significant rainfall for entire North-west India, Gujarat and now into Central India, the monsoon is now seen pushing down south, and almost out of maharashtra, by Sunday, at the latest.

Jet stream easterlies, an important monsoon parameter, and indicated in my blog ,are steadily being pushed southwards over the peninsula and at 20N today, and moving further south, as on today (ECMWF map).

IRI ( Columbia University), forecasts Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu getting good precipitations from 16th. September. The result of a line of discontiunity, as seen in the 925 map from IMD.
But rains in the east and north-east may persist for 2/3 days more, due to a Upper Air Circulation embedded in the north-south trough in the W.Bengal regions.
For Maharashtra, a few isolated thunderstorms will pop-up in a few the regions of the state, latest till Sunday.

Mumbai: Still hopefull of a "concluding Thunderstorm" before Saturday. But again, from Monday, be prepared for a hot "post monsoon" week.

El-Nino: Seems the El-Nino was just gearing up the "harass" the Indian Monsoon. The SOI is yet to show any clear El Niño trend. According to the Australian Weather Bureau, the Southern Oscillation Index, a major indicator of a drought-bringing El Nino weather pattern, has become positive, "indicating development of El Nino has slowed".
"The Bureau of Meteorology said the index rose to one for the 30 days to September 12 from last week's 30-day reading of minus two. The official monthly August SOI was minus five. "The SOI is neutral and does not show an El Niño trend.
"The bureau said the index was more positive than expected, but most indicators suggested an El Nino was developing across the Pacific Basin, although progress had slowed in recent weeks. A consistently negative index points to the development of an El Nino".

So now, maybe better monsoons for the south this winter !!

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