Tuesday, September 15, 2009

For the states of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Haryana and Punjab, and M.P. the monsoon is as good as gone. The states of Maharashtra and Goa will get thundershowers for a couple of days, before the monsoon withdraws.

For Mumbai, it is a thundershower or two that is "pending", before the city sees the end of the monsoon. I expect the rains to actually stop by Friday/Saturday. (Hot post monsoon days next week!)

The remnant cyclonic circulation over west Uttar Pradesh had shifted east and now has been interacting with the W.D. trough to produce some showers over the region, but this activity would shift further to the east and northeast India.

And the seasonal monsoon trough having almost dissolved now, with the core at 1004hpa, against the normal monsoon core of 994 hpa, and with the "broken " axis shifting southwards, the focus of rain activity has shifted to the southern peninsula. (IMD map).

Pre monsoon withdrawal thundershowers will precipitate heavy rains for the next 3/4 days in Karnataka, Kerala, and Nilgiri hills of T.N. Western half of Karnataka, in particular, will experiance these thundershowers.According to IMD, a cyclonic circulation is above north interior Karnataka and coastal Tamil Nadu. This will bring the region under persistant thunderstorms for a week (from today), as the south west monsoon beats a retreat.
Under these condtions,we can expect an "earlier than normal" arrival of the north-east monsoon.(maybe 1st. week of October).

Post monsoon heat has started creeping in from the west, across the border (map).In Rajasthan, day temperatures have managed to become appreciably above normal to touch 40c and above at many places in this region.

Meanwhile, winter is setting in the northern most district of India. The minimum was -6c at Darbuk in Ladhak today. Srinagar was at 10.9c. In H.P. the cold places are naturally in the higher reaches region. Keylong and Kalpa were at 6c today.The winter trend setting in at this time in Kashmir and H.P. is normal, and almost on schedule.

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