Friday, July 11, 2008

Yesterday, a low coming in from the eastern M.P. region moved in fast and poured heavy rain in scattered pockets all along the regions of M.P,Gujarat and Rajasthan. Regions of normally sparce rainfall like Jaipur, Chittorgarh and Jodhpur in Rajashtan got heavy rains from 90-220 mms. It has advanced the monsoon into the remaining parts of the country and moved the monsoon into east Pakistan region. The remains of the system may give some rain now to the sindh region, including Karachi.

But, just as fast it came, the low is fizzling out in the deserts of west Rajasthan and Sindh. It has brought some relief to the regions going towards deficiency.

The rain map on 9th. July shows the area south of M.P. as deficient, with a pocket in central Maharashtra as extremely deficient, and the western states as normal. The entire northern belt is excessive in rain. The rainfall pattern is moving towards a "north-south" divide.

I quote from the latest report of the MF Global Weather Inc.
“Weather over
the next ten days to two weeks looks to be drier than
usual across much of southern and western India and that
will perpetuate the drier bias further delaying some
summer planting. Early seeded crops have likely not
established well and the next few weeks will be critical for
getting significant rain into the region to avoid noticeable
cuts in production potential”
• Further, World Weather Inc opines that “The combination
of sea surface temperature anomalies and lingering La
Nina will result in lighter than usual July rainfall in Tamil
Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, southernmost Maharashtra, Kerala
and Karnataka – basically the same southern crop areas
that were drier than usual in June will be dry again during july."

(I reproduce a section of my blog of 29th. May:"Also seeing the current situation, the fast vanishing La-nina, and the "slipping" SOI index, it may be difficult, in certain areas, for the monsoon rains to be normal this year. There may be some delay and below normal rains in June/early July. Hence the initial period of June/July will have to be watched and followed closely for regions in western and central India.)

This report needs a lot to think over and take effective remedial steps at this stage for crops, power and water planning, seciaqlly in Kerala,Maharashtra,Gujarat and Karnatak.

The situation, as per almost all weather models show no signs of any low or system forming in the next week, that is upto 18th.July. The monsoon rains in the next week will be confined to the northern/eastern states and coastal Orissa. Now, with the soil already saturated, the threat of flooding in these states will be more in July than June.

Hence, I quote from the MF report in conclusion:"
A close monitoring of weather in to south Maharashtra into
Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka over the next two weeks will
be warranted, especially since computer forecasts are still
downplaying rain potentials during the next two weeks.
• Portions of Gujarat and far western Madhya Pradesh have
had their bouts of below average rainfall, too, this summer
and they are about to enter another period without much
rain. Recent rain has improved soil moisture in these two
areas and that will help provide adequate crop development
potential until a better period of rain evolves later this month."
Thanks to Ashokbhai for sending the report.

1 comment:

shiraz satarawala said...

The "dry run" has continued here in Mahabaleshwar. The situation is very alarming as all the dams in our area are empty. This is likely to affect not only the farmers, but hydro electric generation from Koyna will also fall, upseting the economy of Maharashtra in general.

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