Wednesday, July 16, 2008

The above 2 diagrams show the severity of the rain deficiency in the interiors of Maharashtra. It will not be possible to show many cities, but the 2 which I have repeatedly mentioned are shown, that is Aurangabad and Sholapur. Aurangabad shows only 2 really "rainy" days,with another 3/4 days of very little rain (1-3mms), in the last 30 days. The other diagram of Solapur shows only 2 days of rain,that too less than 5mms, in the last 1 month. The entire Marathwada and south madhya Maharashtra are heavily deficient.
The overall map of India in this aspect will be out tomorrow, when the IMD issues the weekly report.

Kerala too is in the red. This diagram of the rain in Trivandrum depicts the large shaded area as deficient.

Meanwhile, the situation as now is a bit more positive. A trough along the Karnataka/Kerala coast has formed, and is likely to remain intact for the next few days. Thus, the regions of coastal Karnataka/Kerala is likely to get rain for a couple of days.
Some models predict a low in the bay by the 18th. As per forecasts, this system is expected to cross the heartland of India thru Orissa,M.P.,Gujarat during the ensuing two days.19th./20th. If it is strong enough, this system can move into south coastal Pakistan subsequent to crossing thru India.
On the forming of a low, it will benefit the the regions of M.P.and Gujarat along with north Maharashtra with the much needed rains (hill stations of the western ghats too can hope for a reveval with this). Can provide some relief the rain deficit areas of Maharashtra.
But, the actual low has to first form. Not all models are in uniformity with this forecast. I am not too sure of a low forming by so soon. Wind developments show, according to me, of a low at a slightly later date, maybe by next week.(around 21st./22nd.).
With this low, the monsoon trough will move southwards to its normal position, thus it can change the entire rain pattern prevailing now.

1 comment:

shiraz satarawala said...

Dear Rajesh
We had a good shower last evening (16th July) It gave an impression, that the monsoon has revived. Unfortunately, there is no further rain.
Shiraz K. Satarawala

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