The above 2 diagrams show the severity of the rain deficiency in the interiors of Maharashtra. It will not be possible to show many cities, but the 2 which I have repeatedly mentioned are shown, that is Aurangabad and Sholapur. Aurangabad shows only 2 really "rainy" days,with another 3/4 days of very little rain (1-3mms), in the last 30 days. The other diagram of Solapur shows only 2 days of rain,that too less than 5mms, in the last 1 month. The entire Marathwada and south madhya Maharashtra are heavily deficient.
The overall map of India in this aspect will be out tomorrow, when the IMD issues the weekly report.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgCKW52_D2F0MAM-_tnvjMnFfFGmVv2mkGG7mfUtjz2Z9CaqIU-432rHq3I3I_dFPKdnztWobeJj_rBvucE21b4RolP8Fi5mO29JIggqCNtJQncb-E5bIZne9WCWwMkf2GI1hTscg/s320/triv.gif)
Meanwhile, the situation as now is a bit more positive. A trough along the Karnataka/Kerala coast has formed, and is likely to remain intact for the next few days. Thus, the regions of coastal Karnataka/Kerala is likely to get rain for a couple of days.
Some models predict a low in the bay by the 18th. As per forecasts, this system is expected to cross the heartland of India thru Orissa,M.P.,Gujarat during the ensuing two days.19th./20th. If it is strong enough, this system can move into south coastal Pakistan subsequent to crossing thru India.
On the forming of a low, it will benefit the the regions of M.P.and Gujarat along with north Maharashtra with the much needed rains (hill stations of the western ghats too can hope for a reveval with this). Can provide some relief the rain deficit areas of Maharashtra.
But, the actual low has to first form. Not all models are in uniformity with this forecast. I am not too sure of a low forming by so soon. Wind developments show, according to me, of a low at a slightly later date, maybe by next week.(around 21st./22nd.).
With this low, the monsoon trough will move southwards to its normal position, thus it can change the entire rain pattern prevailing now.
1 comment:
Dear Rajesh
We had a good shower last evening (16th July) It gave an impression, that the monsoon has revived. Unfortunately, there is no further rain.
Shiraz K. Satarawala
Mahabaleshwar
Maharashtra
India
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