Monsoon Watch - 12

As indicated in "MW-11', the cross equirorial flow has developed well, and recurves across the Somali coast perfectly.This belt of strong southwesterly wind is known as the `Somali Jet`; it is an essential part of the whole SW Monsoon circulation.This map from the IMD shows the strong gush of south westerlies developing near the Andamans and the Sri Lanka coast.

Also the heat wave has now established a heat low in central India,and pressures of 999 mb. has developed around M.P. Thus the heat low over North India and the low over central India form a vertical trough.

Now, both the above situations are normally established around the 20th. of May. After this the vertical trough tilts a bit and becomes a little horizontal, creating "on set" conditions, and then becomes fully horizontal, with the east end in the Bay after the monsoon has set in.

The monsoon over south Andamans now, should also move north in a day or two, and cover the Bay area in another 10 days time before reaching the Bengal coast and North East area.

But this year, as yet, things are moving fast and if this rate of development continues, and if nothing changes the situation, the monsoon can strike Sri Lanka by 18th. and Kerala by the last week of May.

Mumbai can get pre monsoon showers in the last week of May, and regular monsoon rains by 1st. June. Till then, hot, humid days and nights !