Four bright planets are aligning in the morning sky…Check Space News Page

Bandhavgarh Pics on Link alongside..for those interested only..

Heat Picking up....

With M1 now showing its back, we see the heating in the Northern plains taking shape.

Vagaries had predicted high temperatures from Monday, and this day showed, right away, a 45c at Ganganagar. The first 45c in India this year.

Various cities in the North are showing readings of 42-44c today.

In Pakistan, it Larkana and Mohen Jo Daro topping 48c today.(Recall, Mohen JO Daro touched 53c on May 26th 2010).

Night temperatures are getting hotter, with Kota showing a minimum of 33c on Monday morning. Coming days, nights, we shall see more minimums in the 30s !

Meanwhile, we see strong NW winds blowing across the plains of Northern India next few days, which may see the mercury rise further. New Delhi can gear up for 45c, and maybe some Rajasthan cities may head for 47c by Wednesday !Possibly this heat will be creeping into Vidharbha regions next 48 hrs.

A feeble M2 has crept in into Northern Kashmir. Not expected to have any significant effect on precipitation in the North. But, Next 2 days, we see M2 getting stretched due to strong NW winds,and forming a trough, almost at 998 mb, running along the Himalayan foothills. A trough will stretch from Northern U.P. into the plains of Nepal from Wednesday thru Friday, 11th-13th May.

Its eastern end is likely to attract moisture from the Bay and precipitate fairly good rains in the NE states, Sikkim and eastern Nepal regions these 3 days. Kathmandu, presently getting good showers, and will continue with these as the trough, extends eastwards from western areas of Nepal.

Next few days, I see a retreating MJO wave in the Northern Indian Ocean region. Covering the Arabian Sea and Bay, I see decreasing rainfall in the Bay, and the Bay Islands. In fact, very little rain is seen in the Bay Islands from 11th -15th May.

Retreating MJO and a eastwards pulling feeble (W.D.) trough will drive the upcoming rains eastwards into Myanmar, instead of increasing intensity over the Bay islands.

So, a delay in the SWM coming onto the Bay. Maybe after 16th now.

Shall go in details in the next MW.

Visualising some changes, I think MW - 6 should be put up soon.... on Wednesday,11th.

Note on Nepal on International page.

General Monsoon Information on Nepal and Pakistan Posted Today…. See Vagaries’ International Page.

Click on Map

MW-5 Part 2 (Quantum):

Quantum Forecast :First attempt. Never in previous years' MW has Vagaries forecasted amounts of Monsoon rain.

La-Nina assures us again:

The weather-altering La-Nina condition in the Pacific Ocean seems to be easing and could be over by June. That’s Nature's cyclical pattern.

If conditions do revert to neutral, it could ease forecasting the quantum of this summer's Monsoon rains in India.

Most computer models predict neutral conditions through the end of the year, but a few suggest the possibility of a La Nina re-developing.

According to the Climate prediction Center/Ncep, a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected by June 2011, which will continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2011. Most other models predict a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during April-June 2011, followed by ENSO-neutral conditions through the end of the year.

Reflecting a weakening La-Nina, enhanced convection developed over Indonesia, and the low-level equatorial trade winds remain near-average.

The SOI is now lowering in value, and has dropped from +30.5 to +21.5.

This would mean normal systems from the Bay, and normal rains for the peninsula south of M.P.during June/July.

No excessive rains, i.e. normal precipitation figures for entire interior peninsula and west coast of India for June/July.

June /July can produce 3/4 systems from the bay, and support a few UAC specially over west M.P. and Gujarat, which will bring spells of very heavy rains along Karnataka/Goa and Mah. coast, and in west M.P. and Gujarat region (barring Kutch).

Whats the Monsoon Scene for Mumbai ?...See article on Mumbai Page of Vagaries.

Monsoon Watch 5- Part 1( Arrival Time).

As always explained, the MW parameters are showing the progress of the developments in the Monsoon build up. On as - is - where - is basis. Vagaries calculates and forecasts the arrival date of the Monsoon. These parameters are not for the quantum of rainfall.

Vagaries will now, for the 1st time, attempt at forecasting the quantum of Monsoon rainfall. This is in the Part 2.

Bay factor: In the Bay sector, the cross-equatorial wind is building up across the East Indian Ocean with clouds massing west of the Bay Islands. Strong South-West winds have suddenly developed in the South Andaman Sea, and SW winds are now clocking 30 knts south and SE of Sri Lanka. Gauging from the the wind speed, we can expect the Monsoon to strike the South Andamans Seas by 13th, and the Middle Andamans by the 18th. ( Almost on schedule).

As stated, the first South-West Monsoon rains normally hit the South Andaman Sea on 12th.May. And proceed to the Middle Andamans by the 15th. By the 20th. it covers the Islands totally.

As the South-West winds have geared up, and the moisture inflow has picked up in the region,since the last 2 days, by the 10th, we should see a feeble Monsoon current in the South Seas.

Onward Monsoon progress Northwards, will have to be monitored.

In this sequence, we now have a weak low. A weak low has formed in the South West Bay on the 5th. viz.96B. I would not consider this low as a pre-monsoon "bay" low, but just an embeddment in the MJO.

The latest winds in the Bay continues to show strong winds rushing Northwards along the East coast of India, and re-curving into a Westerly flow of winds at the South Myanmar coast.

A lone pre-Monsoon low has appeared in the region (end April) this year. SST in the Bay is now very conducive to host a low anytime, but in the South Andaman Seas.(See SST Map). Indicator: +ve

The cross equatorial flow, off the African Coast, in the Western Indian Ocean, a bit "disrupted" previously, has now re-formed itself fast, and is strong off the African Coast South of the Equator.The Somali Current , is getting defined,and blowing strong ! We will wait for the Somali coastal SST to drop further. (See SST map).

The previously weak factor,the equatorial cross flow South of the Arabian Sea, is getting stronger.

The Mascarene highs are established, are are now "pushing" the South-Easterlies from below the Equator.

However, I feel, a good booster required for the Arabian Sea branch of the Monsoon, is still wanting, and is at least a week away. Indicator: Improved since MW4

Seasonal Low: With the heat factor still lacking absolute "full strength, in the Northern regions, the Seasonal Low core in the Thar Desert is now somewhat "unsteady", with a core pressure at 1000 mb, and requires to spread more westwards, rather than east. This (pulling Eastwards) is happening due to the W.D. M1.

A North-South trough indicates the line of wind dis-continuity is getting favourably tilted towards the east in the Peninsula region. Normally, a perpendicular N-S trough is a pre monsoon formation, and is a fore-runner for the seasonal low to stretch its presence over central India.(See Thai Met Dept Map).

As mentioned in my MW prevoiusly, the creation of a good gradiant between Kerala pressure and Rajasthan/Sindh pressure is an absolute requirment. And that is a must for creating a pull Northwards for the Monsoon. Overall position in this parameter is improved since MW 4. Indicator: +ve

The 200 hpa jet stream. Normally, they should be Easterlies right upto 20N by May end. This would facilitate the Northward movement of the Monsoon Current. Today, the Easterly jet stream is developed upto 5N.These 200 hpa jets winds need to come upto 8N by 15th.of May at least, and then move upto 10N before 20th.May,to be in time for the Andaman Sea Monsoon arrival. But forecasting maps are slow to show this, and indicate a slow movement Northwards, more so in the Eastern (Bay) sector. Indicator: Slow hence -ve

Arrival Time Conclusion:

SWM could reach the South Andaman Sea Islands, the Southern most tip, by 13th May. Progress into the Middle Andamans will be within 2 days, and should cover the entire Islands by the 18th.

Considering all the other parameters, on today's situation, SWM should hit Kerala a few days behind scheduled date, by the 3/4 th June. Northwards into coastal Karnataka should be smooth (nothing adverse) and arrive there by 5/7 th June.

Monsoon Watch - 5 Part -2 will be published on tomorrow (Friday) nite.

(This Monsoon chase is my personal view, and my personal analysis and deciphering is done as per my assumptions).

Readings of 5 th May:

Highest in Asia: 46c Makkah:

Highest in Sub-Continent: 43c Jacobabad (Pakistan).

Highest in India: 43c Ganganagar.

The sub continent heat is actually still lagging, and there are many stations in the below normal range. In fact, many a stations recorded as much as 8c below normal in recording the minimum, while in 2010 we were seeing several stations above 30c, yes, as the minimum.

We see (IMD Map) a thin strip thru the centre of India in the 41/42c range. A few stations like Hissar, Gwalior, Ramagundum and Kurnool saw 42c.

Stressing on the point that we need to see higher temperatures and some heat waves soon.See IMD anomaly map above.

With M1 hovering over the Northern states of Punjab, Haryana, H.P. and Kashmir, we can expect a weekend of precipitation in these states.

And naturally, this would keep the day temperatures "under control". By this, I mean, days may not rise above todays current level. May in fact drop a couple of degrees in some pockets of the Northern states where there may be some hail storm squalls. Some cities in Punjab may not rise above 37c (thats low for this time of the month).

Weekend will be almost dry all over India, except as mentioned, in the Northern states mentioned, and West Bengal will get some thundershowers. Central India (Vid, M.P. and Gujarat) and interior peninsula will be particularly dry.

I see a substantial rise in the day temperatures in the Northern belt of the subcontinent plains once M1 shows its back. Maybe from Monday onwards.

May have to put up a severe temperature map on Sunday.

96B formed in the south west Bay. I do not expect it to really thrive into a full fledged system, but might just rain off into Sri Lanka.

M1 will slip into Nepal from Thursday night itself, and combined with an existing extended trough, will get rains /thundershowers thru the weekend. Kathmandu will continue seeing thundershowers developing and the odd one giving some heavy showers. Weekend rains may accumalate to 30 mms. With the days hovering around 30c, I would say its quite pleasant for this time.

Monsoon Watch 5 - Part 1 will be published late tonite.(Thursday nite).

Minimum temperature touches 30c for the first time this year today, 29th April at Kota (Rajasthan). 

In 2010, 30c as minimum was recorded on 17th April.

Mumbai at 30c now at 2 pm (Friday). Almost cloudy .

via email.

Monsoon Watch 4

Seasonal Low: Indicator: -ve

The days have started heating up in the Sub-continent since the last couple of days. 47c at Larkana in Pakistan 2 days back, and consistent 45s in the Rajasthan and Sindh regions (Pakistan) assure us of the seasonal low forming soon. But, what we still require are the severe heat waves, which are still missing.

The formation of the low is behind schedule, with the core region in the Thar desert still to form and lacks consistency. The MSLP in the Pakistan Sindh region is 1002 mb as of today. Lower since MW 3. But we must remember, that a series of W.D.s have been constantly keeping the temperatures down by as much as 5-7c below the normal.

As on end April, a pressure of 1000 mb in the central core region around Barmer is normal.

Bay Sector: Indicator: -ve

At least the high pressure mentioned in MW 3 is now dissolving, with the help of Southerly winds. Many international forecasting models indicate the formation of a low in the Bay by the 1st. of May. Pre- Monsoon low formation seen in the next week's time frame.

Previous MWs have stressed upon the importance of a low in the Bay by end April. Once a pre-monsoon low is formed, it increases the speed of the SW winds in the Bay sector. An ideal wind speed of 25-30 knts hastens the cloud formations.

Cross Equatorial winds: Indicator: -ve

Good and +ve development here since MW 3. In the western sector, the Arabian Sea branch, the winds below the equator are much better organised now, and have started curving near the equator. A Northerly gush is seen off the Somali coast. This ultimately leads to the formation of the "Somali Current" an essential formation required to accelarate the cumulus cloud formation in central Arabian sea.

Somali Currents are very strong S-N winds off the Somali coast, and this strong wind brings the SST off the coast down (by end May) to almost 18c ! With a warmer central Arabian Sea, cloud masses in huge volumes are formed in the Central area. (Shall discuss in detail in later MWs).

For now, it is sufficient to understand that the winds have turned Northwards, and have re-curved.

In the Bay sector, SW winds are organised South-West off Sri Lanka, and the SE winds from below the equator are pushing North in the Bay region. Signs of getting orgainised. SW winds just South of Sri Lanka have gained speed and are now clocking 25 ktns.

But, in the Arabian Sea and remaining sectors, the winds are still to gain speed. They could be considered weak.

With no cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere, the ITCZ could be forecasted to move Northwards. Currently it is around 5S. ITCZ movement discussed in MW 3.

200 hpa Jet Streams:Indicator:Neutral

Another parameter to observe now are the 200 hpa jet stream. Normally, they should be Easterlies right upto 20N by May end. This would facilitate the Northward movement of the Monsoon Current. Today, the jet stream is developing just below the Equator. Forecasts on models show these winds getting organised around the first week of May. Should march up to the 10N by middle of May, to be in time for the Andaman Sea Monsoon arrival.

La-Nina: Indicator: +ve

Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean have shown very little change. The weekly SST anomaly map for the week ending 24 April shows weak cool anomalies along the equator. Still, a few areas of SST anomalies of more than 1 °C cooler than normal for this time of the year now remain.

However, atmospheric indicators continue to be at odds, and remain consistent with a well developed La Niña event. The latest 30-day SOI value is +30.2. This is alomost touching the the highest April monthly value on record +31.7, recorded in 1904, and has remained consistently high throughout the event.

Cloudiness near the date-line remains below normal while trade winds continue to be stronger than normal.

Untill these indicators turn towards normal conditions, a fully neutral ENSO condition cannot be established. La-Nina prevails till then. And seems it could well slip into June.

Conclusion: Though there is some improvement in most of the parameters, there is still much to be achieved, and most parameters are still lagging behind time, and are -ve.

Based on these calculations, Vagaries would still maintain the Monsoon to reach Kerala by the 4/5th June. SWM should hit South Andaman Sea around 18th. May.

First half of June should see some deficient rains in the Peninsula regions.

MW 5 will be up on 7th May.