General Monsoon Information on Nepal and Pakistan Posted Today…. See Vagaries’ International Page.
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MW-5 Part 2 (Quantum):
Quantum Forecast :First attempt. Never in previous years' MW has Vagaries forecasted amounts of Monsoon rain.
La-Nina assures us again:
The weather-altering La-Nina condition in the Pacific Ocean seems to be easing and could be over by June. That’s Nature's cyclical pattern.
If conditions do revert to neutral, it could ease forecasting the quantum of this summer's Monsoon rains in India.
Most computer models predict neutral conditions through the end of the year, but a few suggest the possibility of a La Nina re-developing.
According to the Climate prediction Center/Ncep, a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected by June 2011, which will continue into the Northern Hemisphere summer 2011. Most other models predict a transition to ENSO-neutral conditions during April-June 2011, followed by ENSO-neutral conditions through the end of the year.
Reflecting a weakening La-Nina, enhanced convection developed over Indonesia, and the low-level equatorial trade winds remain near-average.
The SOI is now lowering in value, and has dropped from +30.5 to +21.5.
This would mean normal systems from the Bay, and normal rains for the peninsula south of M.P.during June/July.
No excessive rains, i.e. normal precipitation figures for entire interior peninsula and west coast of India for June/July.
June /July can produce 3/4 systems from the bay, and support a few UAC specially over west M.P. and Gujarat, which will bring spells of very heavy rains along Karnataka/Goa and Mah. coast, and in west M.P. and Gujarat region (barring Kutch).