Co Authors: GSB, Shreyas Dhavale, Pradeep John, Dr. Vineet Singh, Gokul

Monday, July 08, 2024

8th july




Mumbai's levels jump to 18.7%



*flop iit bombay AI technique

 *All models also couldn't forecast this...SSE to NNW movement coastal special patch
*Lets admit, Shows how challenging it is to forecast west coast Monsoon rains.

*No heavy rain forecasted by ECMWF,GFS or any models, nor vagaries  in the last 4 runs


Sunday, July 07, 2024

 7th July

With good rainfall in Bhatsa, 237 mms, Mumbai lake storage increases to 14.52%.

Pune Storage increases also 


Saturday, July 06, 2024

 International:

U.S. Faces Severe Heat.. 

See on World Weather News Page 

--------------------------------------------------------------

Mumbai:

The slow Monsoon run in Mumbai continues in July. 

Daily Rain 1st to 6th July:

 Scruz: June /July =443mms (-40%)

Driest June was in 1995 with 82 mms rain.

Colaba :June /July Total = 559 mms  ( -24 %).

Driest June was in 2014 with 55 mms in the whole Month.

The Graph below showing the daily rainfall at these Stations this year as on date, indicate the highest rainfall on a single day is just 80 mms at Colaba, and 70 mms at Scruz.( Vag. Ganesh informs)


Outlook:

Now, till the 10th, we can expect this same "occasional Showers" weather for Mumbai...around 20-30 mm/day..

Corresponding rain in Lakes have also been lesser the Normal...and Lakes show a very marginal rise to 10.88 % Storage Level.  ( 2023 =18%, 2022= 16%).

Pune: 

Pune has gathered excess rainfall till date with the June/July rainfall at 269 mms ( + 34%).

June was 249 mms ( Wettest June ever was 530 mms in 1991, driest 1.3 mms in 1947).

Pune can expect light rains in some parts on Sunday. Slight increase in rains on Monday and Tuesday, around 20-25 mms /day.


Chennai Special 

With rains being weak for north Kerala, consistent thunderstorms continue this Monsoon for Chennai region. 

Chennai SW Monsoon average from June - September is 448 mm

Total rainfall as of 8:30 am on July 6th, 2024

Chennai City 344 mm
Chennai AP 352 mm

Close to 80% of seasonal rainfall received with around 70% of the Monsoon season still left.

Wednesday, July 03, 2024

 3rd Night Post 


Monsoon trough is seen North of its normal position. Unfortunately the axis ( trough) shifted rapidly ( than expected) towards North.

Indicative of heavy rainfall in Gangetic Plains. 

Also subdued rains in Peninsula and M.P, Gujarat,  Maharashtra and Karnataka. 

Normally now, it can re-align Southwards on a few days. And resume normal peninsula rains.

Mumbai few showers,  in parts of city.

Lakes need to get heavier showers within 3/4 days.

Interior Maharashtra not much expected

Marathwada crops, seedlings in good shape now.

Sustaining period without rain : 5 days.



 

Tuesday, July 02, 2024

2nd July Night Post:

Mumbai Water Storage:

Good signs, as for the first time this year we see an rise in lake storage...to 7.15%


Lakes got moderate rains


This week,  Mumbai will get moderate occasional showers. Around 50 - 80 mms cumulative till Saturday. 

Slow improvement in lakes levels expected.

Pune:

Now, this week ( 3rd -6th) will see a little lesser rains, a bit warmer days.

Patchy local rains in parts.

Monday, July 01, 2024

1st July...


Mumbai:

June ends with 507 mms at Colaba ( -7%), and 347 mms (-54%) at Scruz.

As Vagaries mentioned 4 days ago, with some "end-of-the-month rain", the lakes would show some improvement in levels

The Month end levels are:

2024 =   5.4%

2023 =  10.88%

2022 =  10.59%


Next 4 days, 1st - 4th July, Mumbai will get occasional showers with heavy local downpours. Rain not very persistent. 

Around 30 - 40 mm/day on 1st/2nd.

An increase of rains, around 50-70 mm/day on 3rd/4th.

Cumulative around 150 mm on 4 days. 

Colaba may go into surplus rains (for seasonal average up to July 1st week) by next weekend.

Pune:

Light rains initially on 1st/2nd, then increasing showers on 3rd/4th.

Cumulative 20-30 mm on 4 days.

Marathwada (Sambhajinagar): Rainfall expected to be low till next 7 days at least.

Increase only after the 8th of July.

मराठवाडा (संभाजीनगर) : येत्या सात दिवसांपर्यंत पावसाचा जोर कमी राहील. 8 जुलैनंतरच पावसाचा जोर वाढेल.

Gujarat Region will see moderately heavy type rains next 4 days. Substantial increase in Bharuch region from 5th..especially heavy on 6th/7th.

Historic intense cyclone feat in the Bay of Bengal

As per JTWC, Cyclone Arnab had maximum windspeed 120knots, Cyclone Murasu maximum windspeed 85 knots. Based on JTWC records for 1st time aft...