Mumbai forecast For Thurs/Fri/Sat with Thursday Morning Actual put up on Mumbai Page...Note the rise in pressure on Vagaries' Reading Page !

Put up on Inter Active Page:Pradeep's compilation of All India Toppers as on 10th July 2012:

See Mumbai Page for Maharashtra and Mumbai Reservoir Levels as on 10th July:

Loads of Information for Vagaries' Readers as on 10th July !!

The SW Monsoon has covered the country today, 10th July.

BB1 is moving West, and is positioned over the West MP/Gujarat/adjoining Rajasthan region. Though not very deep, it is 994 mb, but the associated upper air circulation is extending upto 500 hpa. 

The clouding is concentrated in the Western Quadrant due to the favourable Lifted Condensation levels in the region over East Gujarat.

But, the North Konkan region was convienently by passed on Tuesday. 

On analysis as to why this happened, We can see from this image (above) of Tuesday morning, that the Maximum Level of Free Condensation has risen to over 5000, considered un favourable for immiediete cloud formation. But this can always change rapidly with good moisture incursions.

On Monday/Tuesday the precipitation in the areas forecasted by Vagaries(barring Konkan)has been on expected lines. Very heavy rainfall of 216 mms was recorded at Garhi in East Rajasthan. Banswara recorded 175 mms. Ujjain, where Vagaries had predicted very heavy rains, saw 102 mms, and Narsingpur 95 mms. Nearby Rewa saw 42 mms.

Would expect BB1 to move North/West and fizzle out over the Kutch/Rajasthan region.

Very heavy rains expected in Kutch on Wednesday and Thursday. Regions North of Ahemdabad will also get heavy rains next 36 hrs. 

Alongwith the system the Monsoon also moves westwards into Pakistan's Sindh Coast. The Monsoon should be on KHI by Thursday, and as mentioned yesterday, Karachi should get showers by Wednesday.

City weather in some time...and Maharashtra and Mumbai Water levels....later tonite

The UAC mentioned earlier has descended as a low around the MP/Gujarat/Rajasthan Border. Associated clouding is seen in the satellite image, mostly in the SW Quadrant in Gujarat. (BB1). (Ananth, I think you are bringing in the luck)

Clouds and precipitation are seen moving towards the low along the South Gujarat coast. Most of the "rush" of clouding is above the Maharashtra border, just about "avoiding the Konkan Coastline" as of Tuesday afternoon.

Rain can be seen in North Gujarat, and adjoining MP...but not along Konkan as yet...

Lets see and observe the low throughout the day today..and discuss tonite..those on Fb please come on line for discussion in the "Vagaries of the Weather" group....@ 10 pm 

Also will put up on blog tonite..

See Mumbai Page for Tuesday Morning Rainfall for City and Panvel/Thane...

An UAC has formed over Chattisgarh/East MP. and the low pressure extends into the 850 hpa, 700 hpa and 500 hpa levels.

Next?
By Monday 9th, the UAC will persist at 700 hpa and 850 hpa and track westwards.

Monday 9th : Heavy rains in MP, Chattisgarh and commencing by evening over North Konkan. Rains also medium intensity over UP. Medium rains in adjoining Vidarbha and Orissa.

Tuesday 10th:
The UAC will travel westwards. A classic case of an upper level trough detatched and forming south of the "main" sea level monsoon trough.

By Tuesday, the UAC may track over MP/Gujarat, with heavy precipitation over North Gujarat and West MP, and North and South Konkan and South Gujarat coast.
Torrential rains on Monday night/Tuesday in the Indore/Ujjain/Dewas regions.
Heavy rains over the Western Ghats in Maharashtra.

Wednesday 11th:
The system moves into Kutch on Wednesday, and weakens.The SW Monsoon set to adveance into Kutch.
The UAC will weaken subsequently, but on Wednesday/Thursday, the precipitation can move into coastal Sindh and Karachi on a lesser scale.

Meanwhile, rainfall decreases in the rear of the UAC.


SWM can move into Karachi by 10th11th July.


Some rain expected in Karachi on Tuesday/Wednesday, when the day temperatures can drop to 31/32c.
Sukkur can also expect cloudy weather on Tuesday/Wednesday. Maybe very light drizzles in some areas. But day will be hot at around 42/43c.

The Monsoon axis in the North has now strengthened, and with the Low embedded, we may see heavy rains along the UP plains and Utteranchal.
Nepal will get heavy rains from Wednesday thru Saturday.

Almost negligible rains in interior Maharashtra and Karnataka (Mon thru Wed).

City Forecast:
Mumbai:

Monday 9th: Cloudy skies getting overcast by afternoon/evening. A couple of passing showers getting frequent and intense by evening. Night heavy showers expected . Rain Amount: (8.30 am Monday-8.30am Tuesday): 35 mms. 

Tuesday 10th: Overcast skies with fairly frequent showers. Some prolonged and heavy with gusty winds. Flooding expected during some heavy showers in the afternoon/evening. 
Rain amount: (8.30amTuesday-8.30amWednesday): 60 mms.
(Panvel and Thane can expect very heavy rains during Tuesday, and rain amount may be around 75-80 mms).

Wednesday 11th: Frequent showers till sfternoon. Skies brightning by evening, with decreasing rainfall.Rain Amount: 20 mms.


(see Sunday rains on Mumbai Page v/s Forecast).
Pune: 
Monday: Cloudy, with 2/3 light showers in the day. Rain amount: 5-7 mms.


Tuesday: Overcast, with increasinf rains in the day. Frequent light rain and cool day at 25c. Rain Amount: 10-12 mms.


Wednesday: Decrease in rains.



Surat: 
Monday will be partly cloudy with showers , more in evening.
Tuesday: Overcast with very frequent showers with some heavy falls. Rain Amount should be 60-70 mms.
Wednesday: cloudy with 3/4 showers. Decreasing by afternoon/evening.


Delhi: A couple of showers in some parts of Delhi Region. Rain Amount: 10 mms
Rains decreasing to almost zero Tuesday/Wednesday. Warming up to 38c in the day.

Mixed forecasts are coming for the MJO wave. Seeing the various models and projections, I would personally put it (in my words): an extension of the "neutral" MJO phase till the 18th of July. Getting into weak phase after the 21st of July. 

Mumbai Forecast cannot be restricted to a part of Mumbai, as the Mumbai Region covers a wider area. Replying to queries, cannot forecast for North Mumbai or South or Thane separately. Its impossible. I would say that the forecast should cover the entire Mumbai region . Special forecast can be put up for satellite townships when required.
Thane and Panvel  readings now put up on Mumbai Page with  Colaba and S'Cruz readings (alongside Forecast).

SW Monsoon moves further into Delhi, Haryana, Chandigarh and Punjab.. see map on Current Page 


While moving in, there was good precipitation in these states. Anandpur Sahib 14 cms, Chandigarh recieved 12 cms, Naraingarh 11 cms, Hoshiarpur 9cms, Nangal 6 cms. Delhi managed between 4-6 cms.


As the Monsoon progressed, there was very heavy rain in East Rajajsthan. Amongst the heavier falls there:Todabhim 14, Atru 14, Alwar 13, Kishanganj 11, Shahabad 11 and Chabra 8.
In West UP, Philbhit got 15cms. Varanasi got 9 cms.


So there was very precipitation along the Monsoon axis (line) as estimated. 

But, the Monsoon still has a long way to go..The West Coast trough is showing "courage" and still persists. But, the ridge in the Interior Mah and Karnataka regions has started forming (just about).

See Weekend forecast for the region and cities put up on Friday...

SW Monsoon has also moved into Northern most regions of Pakistan...


Precipitation is also pushing into Pakistan, with Jhelum getting 48 mms, Rawalpindi measuring 44 mms and Islamabad 29 mms, Muree 26 mms and Sialkot 24 mms.


Lucky Break..MJO may hold on a few days more than estimated...report on Sunday at 10 pm IST...

Forecast for the Week End, 7th/8th July :

Saturday/Sunday will see some heavy showers moving along the Northern Monsoon Trough. Showers are expected in UP, Jharkand, Delhi and moving into Punjab and Haryana.

Thunder showers are also expected on Saturday/Sunday in Pakistan Punjab. Heavy showers could be expected to lash Lahore.

However, the off shore trough remains, though not strengthening, and the West coast of India will get medium rains from South Gujarat coast to Karnataka coast.
Interior Mah, North and South interior Karnataka get light rains on the week end.

Saturday or Sunday evening Nagpur may get a thundershower. Vidharbha region could witness heavy rain in some areas.

Mumbai: 

Saturday: Partly sunny to cloudy, with some Medium/Heavy post noon showers. Rain Amount: about 25-30 mms.
Sunday: Partly Cloudy with sunny spells. A few showers in the day, heavy in some parts of city.  Rain Amount: 30-35 mms.


Pune: 
Saturday/Sunday: Partly cloudy to cloudy. Light drizzles/rain in some parts of city. Rain Amount upto 5 mms/day. Pune seasonal total from June 1st is only 42 mms.

Delhi: Heavy Thundershowers on Friday Night and early Saturday Morning. Rain Amount 25-30 mms.
Cloudy weather on Sunday with thundershowers in parts.

Nagpur: Thundershower possible on Saturday/Sunday evening. Saturday may rain upto 25 mms.

Surat: Some early pre noon showers on Saturday. Rain Amount on Saturday: upto 25 mms.
Cloudy Sunday with light showers during the day. Rain Amount: 10-15 mms.

Bangalore: A mild thundershower possible on Saturday evening. Could get rains between 5-10 mms. Otherwise Weekend will be cloudy with light drizzle in some parts.





The SW Monsoon has moved into Parts of Saurashtra, East Rajasthan, UP and HP today, 6th July.


As the Monsoon moved into East Rajasthan, Jamwaramgarh got 90 mms, Sanganer 80 mms and Shahpura 67 mms. In its advent, Monsoon has poured over HP also. Yesterday,  Kangra 152 mms and in Utteranchal, Chamoli got 180 mms, Nainital recieved 135 mms.Today Karnaprayag recieved 88 mms and Chamoli 70 mms.


Regions in the rear of the advancing monsoon recieved very heavy rainfall. Jabalpur measured 197 mms.
We had also mentioned of the Kanpur-Lucknow region to get heavy rains in vagaries' forecast on Wednesday. Kanpur recieved 148 mms, Manakpur 130 mms, Bansgaon 110 mms.


Heavy thundershowers lashed parts of Delhi today (Friday) evening (continuing at 8 pm as per report). A hazy day kept the high at 37c today. After reading 35c till 5.30 pm, the rain brought the mercury down to 24c by 6 pm. 
See pic of Delhi storm sent by Rajiv (taken at 8 pm)..on Inter Active Page
Panipat,Sonepat and Rohtak are also recieving heavy rains.


The trough in the North runs From Pakistan (990 mb) Punjab thru North Rajasthan across Haryana, UP (994 mb), Jharkhand and into W.Bengal.


The Monsoon is set to advance into Delhi, Haryana and Punjab by tomorrow (Saturday).

All India Rainfall Deficit as on 4th July 2012.. and  Karnataka Analysis ...All on Current Weather Page of Vagaries,


Mumbai Readings v/s Estimate put up on Mumbai Page..See Vagaries' Readings Page for Panvel  and Thane.

Come Thursday, 5th July, and we see the trough off the West Coast of India gradually getting weak again. In fact, from Saturday, 7th, there are chances of the Monsoon axis shifting to the North. 
From Pakistan Punjab, where it will deepen to 988 mb, it will run thru Delhi into the plains region of UP, and will be substantially deep at 994 at its eastern end near Bihar.


What does it mean ? Monsoon rushing into rest of UP, Delhi and Utteranchal from Sunday, 8th July, and then from Monday into Eastern Rajasthan, HP, Indian Punjab and Haryana. 


Heavy rainfall will occur this week in the Lucknow-Kanpur belt and Western UP region adjoining Utteranchal.
NE states will see a resurge from this weekend.


West coast rain tapers off from Saturday. In fact, some weather MSLP charts show a ridge forming from Saturday, 7th July. This high pressure ridge will stretch from SI Karnataka thru Interior Mah upto Mah/Gujarat border.
Gujarat region sees a sharp decrease in rains from this Saturday.


Sharp decrease in rains for interior Mah from Saturday, and almost no meaningfull rains in interior Karnataka.


But the Western Rajasthan region along with Kutch will remain dry and devoid of rains this week. 


Advance of Monsoon into Pakistan could be considered from next week. Feeble currents will move into Northern regions of Pakistan including Islamabad and Punjab from Sunday, 8th July.
Sindh and Balochistan will be almost dry.


Mumbai Forecast:

Thursday, 5th: Cloudy with occasional showers. Rainfall will be less than Wednesday, but scattered through the day. Rain amount: 20-25 mms.

Friday, 6th: Almost cloudy day with several showers, some heavy. Rain amount 30 mms.

Saturday, 7th: Partly cloudy with sunny spells. A shower or two in some parts . Decrease in rainfall. Rain Amount 10 mms.


Pune:


Thursday,5th: Cloudy day. A moderate shower expected in some parts. Rain Amount 5-10 mms. 
Actaul Rain Amount. 1-2 mms in different parts.


Friday/Saturday: Decrease in whatever meagre rainfall occured in the last two days. Very light drizzles in some parts, otherwise sunny spells.


Surat: 
Thursday,5th: Thunderclouds could develop by evening and very cloudy by evening. Some showers, could be heavy. Rain amount: 20 mms. 
Actual: Some heavy showers with rainfall amounting to 18.5 mms.


Friday: Partly cloudy to cloudy by evening. A shower expected which could be heavy in some parts.
Saturday: Decrease in rains. 


Delhi: Monsoon showers will cool the NCR from Saturday and Sunday. Heavy showers in parts of the region are expected, and some will be prolonged on Sunday.


Interesting Statistics Gathered by GSB for all Vagaries' Readers on Inter Active Page. Must See !


Vagaries' visitors counter hit over 1000 a day, last few days. Thursday (last) : 1115 hits, Monday: 1054 hits, Tuesday: 1035 hits and today Wednesday: 1352 hits and 7792 hits last 8 days.

 East Gujarat Stations received good precipitation and some prominent places with their rainfall: Vadodara  100 mms, Padra  75 mms, Dholka  72 mms, a'Bad 35 mms, Dhandhuka  33mms. 
In Saurashtra Upleta 46 mms. Surat got 8 mms, and Umerpada recieved 32 mms.
Bharuch got 34 mms, with the seasons total at Bharuch showing 97 mms.


Rains till 8.30 am Wednesday: Alibag 138 mms, Ratnagiri 199 mms ,Roha 152 mms, 




Panvel and Thane readings of Wednesday  @ 8.30 am rain on Vagaries'Readings Page..
Check Mumbai Page for actual v/s Forecast 

Rains likely in coastal Pakistan and Karachi can receive showers. 

Mumbai got its predicted thundershower on Monday and Tuesday evening/nights. 
The actual v/s forecast is put up on Mumbai page and will be updated tomorrow morning taking into account today's rain. should be in the expected range till Wednesday morning. 


A minor vortex at 700 hps formed off Mumbai and cloudiness merging with the UAC moving from the East into the central regions. 


Today, Tuesday, Alibag measured 84 mms, and Ahmednagar received 46 mms of rain till 5.30pm. Much needed ! Igatpuri near Nasik managed 48 mms. 

Yesterday, Monsoon has moved into rest of MP and parts of UP.(Put up on Current Weather Page Yesterday).


Answer, or rather my opinion, to several queries on the wundermap showing intense cloud colour (pink) but no rainfall : Clouds swirling with the winds at various levels form multi layered clouds. The depth of the UAC descended to 850 hpa, and forming of 2/3 layered cloudings give different temperature signals to the satellite sensors. Its based on these sensors that the colour images are projected, with artificial colours of course. 


Pink colouration does signify high and dense clouds, cumulo-nimbus or even multi layered strato-cumulus. But NOT ALWAYS does it precipitate. Down on the ground, the region may show "ready to precipitate" conditions. But several and many factors are involved for the actual precipitation from cloud to ground. 
I have seen and noticed on several previous occasions the deep (coloured) cloud on any image, but no reports of precipitation. Just on the 1st of July, Saurashtra was "pink", but no rainfall !


These are just indicators, and for budding meteorologists this is an experiance and learning to make one's own judgement. It needs time and patience to understand and grasp the weather map.  




Mumbai Forecast:


Wednesday: Monsoonish like mentioned previously. Cloudy to overcast morning with a couple of showers. Intensity of rains can increase by afternoon. Thundershowers likely early afternoon/evening. Rain amount: 55-60 mms.


Thursday: Cloudy with occasional showers. Rainfall will be lesser than Wednesday, but scattered through the day. Rain amount: 25 m mms.


Friday: Almost cloudy day with several showers, some heavy. Rain amount 35 mms.
Mumbai Water Storage as on 3rd July updated on Mumbai Page


Pune:
Wednesday/Thursday: Cloudy day. A moderate shower expected in some parts. Light rains will be occasional in the day. Rain Amount 10 mms.


Friday: Lesser rainfall than Thursday.


Surat: A heavy thundershower likely by afternoon/evening. Rain amount: 30-35 mms.
Thursday: Thunderclouds could develop by evening and very cloudy by evening. Some showers, could be heavy. Rain amount: 20 mms.

Pradeep Has just sent his Latest June End ALL India Rainfall Totals with Rankings..and his clarifications and comparisons with last year shows his immaculate precision and hard work and Efforts...See Inter Active Page..Thanks Pradeep.

Looking into the next 4 days of the coming week (Monday thru Thursday), we see the Monsoon active, with heavy rains in North AP, adjoining East Vidharbha and South Konkan, and Medium Rains in Rest of Interior Mah. (Madhya Mah, Marathwada) and Konkan.

The "hot spots" for heavy rains are: (All terminologies fror rainfall as per Vagaries' nomenclature (put up on Current weather Page).
Monday thru Thursday Rainfall Estimated Distribution Map (for at a glance viewing): 

Monday: 
Vizag and South of Vizag on Sunday night into Monday. 
Heavy Thundershowers in Interior maharashtra (Barring East Vidharbha) on Monday thru the night, and Konkan including Mumbai. Very Heavy rains on Monday night in Nasik region. Heavy rains in Konkan on Monday
South Gujarat coast lashed by heavy rains on Monday night into Tuesday.


Tuesday: 
Konkan and Coastal Karnataka can receive Very Heavy rains on Tuesday. 


Wednesday: 
Heavy rains lashing Nagpur and surroundings on Wednesday. Western MP and Eastern UP could get medium rainfall on Wednesday.
NE states will get heavy rains, but light rains in W Bengal with little rain for Kolkata. No meaningfull and significant rainfall in NW India and Delhi for this period. Like mentioned, Delhi could get first monsoon showers around 8th.


Thursday sees an overall rainfall decrease from these regions.
In the meantime, all the NW of India and Pakistan wait for the rains. 


For Pakistan, Sindh coast should get the first rains from around 7th/8th July. Later progress has to be seen.


Meanwhile hot, as Islamabad reaches 43c and Sukkur 44c. Expecting 45c in a day. Hottest 45.5c at Sibbi.


City Forecasts: 


Mumbai: 

Monday:Thundershower in the afternoon/evening with gusty winds. Rain amounts 45-50 mms.

Tuesday: Cloudy and showers. Occasional Thundershowers in the afternoon. Rain amount 45-50 mms.

Wednesday: Occasional showers and a typical "Monsoonish "day. Rain amounts 40 mms.




Thursday: Decrease in Rainfall.

Pune:


Monday: Getting cloudy with thundershower by afternoon/night. Rain amount 15 mms.
Tuesday: Thundershowers by afternoon, heavy in some parts of city, with temporary flooding. Rain amount will vary, but some areas can get upto 50 mms. 
Wednesday: cloudy with a couple of showers in some parts.


Surat: Heavy rainfall from Monday night into Tuesday. Rains in 24 hrs could measure 75 mms as per Vagaries' nomenclature. 
Decrease in rainfall on Wednesday.


Very Brief July Estimate:


The First 10/12 days of July will see the Monsoon Covering the rest of the Country. Due to the delay, the NW parts could be in the deficit.


The MJO remains "neutral" till around mid July and favourable from mid July till 24th July. ENSO remains Neutral. IOD may get slightly -ve, possibly. 


A couple of systems from the Bay are possible as the MJO strengthens a bit. This could bring precipitation to W Bengal, orissa, Eastern Coast, Central India and Interior Maharashtra. Konkan and coastal Karnataka could get their normal share of July rains as the off shore trough will persist.


Due to favourable situation in July, AP could get normal precipitation.


If, one of the systems from the Bay deviates towards the South, we can exoect precipitation in interior Karnataka nad South Maharashtra. 
Otherwise too, pentrations from the West coast could boost up rains in these regions, when there is an UAC off the Karnataka coast. 
UAC forming in Gujarat, which is possible after a system, or independently, could boost Gujarat rains, which may be slightly deficit in July.


Monsoon will move into Pakistan around 10th July, with coast getting some precipitation.
Late July, we can expect the rains to pick up in the Central and Northern regions.